A collective sigh of relief rose across the world when Israel chose to minimise its “retaliatory” attack against Iran, keeping its strikes clear of Iranian oil resources and nuclear sites and limiting them to military targets, most of which were connected to training Iran-aligned militias in the region. The number of aircraft used was not overwhelming – only a hundred war planes – and the more sophisticated ones, like the F-35s, did not display their full destructive capacities. 

The events that unfolded starting at dawn on Saturday, 26 October, reflected a new type of military offensive for scoring points in influencing the adversary’s will. First, Israel informed Iran through the Dutch foreign minister that it was about to attack in response to the Iranian retaliation of 1 October. It then demonstrated its ability to penetrate Iranian defences that were on high alert and were forced to reveal their positions. 

Second, the US notified Tehran ahead of time that Israel was about to “defend itself” by responding to the previous Iranian strike, so Iran should not start another round. Washington backed this up by furnishing Israel with high-tech “THAAD” missiles, plus 100 US troops to operate them, thereby stressing that Israel’s war was also the US’. It simultaneously sent over some squadrons of F-16s to reinforce its military profile in the region. Its message contained hints of kindness, plenty of caution and some optimism concerning the possibility of a fresh start, with a halt to the strikes and counterstrikes and a window – albeit a small one – for a truce that might revive stalled diplomatic efforts.

Will the four-hour war in which Israeli planes invaded Iran mark the beginning of de-escalation, or at least a halt to escalation and a possible reversal in the course that has fed regional and global pessimism over the prospects of even reaching a ceasefire, let alone ending the war in the Middle East?  Or will we see a repeat of what occurred in April when the Iranians and Israelis exchanged military strikes calibrated to cap the volcano before it exploded? Have we reached the stage where the two sides feel they have achieved a degree of victory or avoided defeat? 

Iran has demonstrated its regional influence. It has loyal affiliates, it has shown it can make Israel lose sleep, and meanwhile its relations with its Arab neighbours have been improving. Tehran would benefit from an end to the confrontation, as this would alleviate the pressures on it and possibly pave the way to renewed talks over its nuclear programme and a horizon for an end to sanctions with their troublesome domestic repercussions. 

Israel, for its part, welcomes a sense of victory after a year-long war that few had expected would last so long and expand to this point. During that time, it delivered some painful blows to near and distant militias, assassinating their leaders and killing their fighters, while sustaining its campaign of genocide against the adversarial population of Gaza. But the cost of the war has been exorbitant. Israel has never lost so much in terms of military personnel and equipment. Clearly, it will never recover its strategy of “deterrence” after killing more than 42,000 civilians in Gaza and thousands more in Lebanon.

Israel has certainly won no medals for valour or moral superiority. What it gained over the past year was mounting opprobrium and castigation in international forums. Moreover, with its switch from pre-World War II victim to present-day perpetrator of war crimes and genocide, overt manifestations of anti-Semitism have once again become widespread in the West.

The Palestinians, despite the many calamities they endured and the heavy toll they sustained in the battles, have awakened the two-state solution from a long slumber. Netanyahu’s goal in aiding Hamas was to create the Palestinian rift between the West Bank and Gaza. This is precisely what makes the reunification of the West Bank and Gaza the first step towards a new beginning for the Palestinian cause. The initiative, or at least a significant part of it, is once again in Palestinians’ hands. The way they handle the rift will determine the future of their cause. It is time for Hamas to step down as a militia so that decisions of war and peace can revert to a single, legitimate national authority. Arab states have a historic role to play in this regard by producing a detailed vision for an Arab peace initiative to be conveyed by the countries that have signed peace treaties with Israel to the world and to the Israeli people.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly