German Defence Ministry Spokesman Mitko Mueller stated during a routine government press conference last week that Minister Boris Pistorius had “decided that the return of a frigate to Baden-Württemberg and a supply ship from India will be via the African coasts,” referring to an alternate path avoiding the Red Sea.

Mueller explained that the decision was made due to the “very high threat level” in the Red Sea, referring to the Houthis in Yemen. “We have seen in recent days, weeks and months that they are capable of very complex attacks, especially with tactical ballistic missiles and drones,” he stated, referring to Houthi attacks on shipping passing through the Red Sea.

If the Houthi threat has escalated in this way for warships, what is the situation now for commercial shipping?

According to the website Marine Traffic, “by June 2024 there was a sharp decline in Suez Canal bulk carrier traffic. In June, a 79.6 per cent reduction in dry bulk carriers passing through the Suez Canal was observed, with only 24 ships compared to 118 in the same period last year. This significant drop is primarily due to Houthi attacks, which have disrupted this critical global shipping route,” it said.

Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s minister of Foreign Affairs and Migration, stated on Friday that as a result of the Houthi attacks on commercial ships passing through the Bab Al-Mandeb Straits and the southern Red Sea, the Egyptian economy has suffered losses in revenues estimated at $6 billion.

However, the global shipping companies have still been able to achieve large profit rates.

The Danish shipping giant Maersk last week pre-released quarterly earnings figures and raised full-year guidance as it continued to benefit from a robust container market demand. The company said that net profit had risen to $3.05 billion from $521 million in the same period the previous year.

Since the beginning of this year, the Poseidon Archer Operation led by a US-UK coalition has acted against the Houthis. But despite intensive operational efforts and at a cost of more than a billion dollars, the Houthis have still been able to regain the capabilities they lost at the beginning of the operation, notably carrying out complex attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

The Houthi militias have been able to adapt to the actions taken against them. While they previously relied on primitive missiles and drones, over recent months they have been using more advanced models with greater accuracy and a longer range, causing confusion among observers as to whether they were developed locally or imported from Iran through smuggling routes that the US Navy has been unable to stop.

On 28 October, the Houthis carried out sea drills known as “let them blacken your faces,” the objective of which was to simulate offensive operations on naval targets employing a new weapon that poses a significant threat to ships.

British naval expert H I Sutton wrote that “Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have shown a propaganda video of their latest maritime weapons. These are shown destroying a range of dummy American and Israeli vessels. The Houthis’ weapons should be taken seriously. They have seriously damaged several merchant ships. One weapon shown is a one-way-attack autonomous underwater vehicle (OWA-AUV). This is named Al-Qar’iah, meaning Great Disaster.”

To better understand these types of weapons, Al-Ahram Weekly reached out to Tayfun Ozberk, a former Turkish naval officer and now an analyst for the Naval Analysis website.

“The Al-Qar’iah unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), promises new capabilities in the region. This device can be classified as something between an unmanned underwater vehicle and a torpedo; a loitering UUV might be the best description. This term brings to mind a weapon faster than a typical UUV and capable of carrying a warhead, yet slower than torpedoes, with a longer endurance for loitering in target areas,” Ozberk said.

During 2024, the Houthis tried to harm US Navy ships several times but were unsuccessful due to the ability of the ships to respond effectively to all the air and naval missiles and drones that attacked them.

However, the Houthis already came close twice to hitting a US destroyer in January and even reaching a distance of only 200 metres from the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower in June, but the missile was intercepted at the last minute.

These attacks may indicate a Houthi intention to develop their arsenal for a specific purpose, which is to target warships in order to maintain their position in the geopolitical scene and give false legitimacy to their unjustified aggression.

Ozberk explained that “while the exact specifications of this device remain unknown, it’s certain that it will pose a greater threat than the Houthis’ previous capabilities. Most vessels operating in the Red Sea are modern surface assets equipped with advanced weapons and sensors. These ships, with their superior sensors and command-and-control systems, have managed to neutralise many of the missiles launched by the Houthis. However, underwater threats present a different challenge.”

One golden rule known to all naval officers is that “missiles cause injuries, but torpedoes kill.” Missiles usually hit the upper parts of ships, and a hit may allow the crew to survive or even complete their journey. However, this is not the case with torpedo attacks because of their ability to cause holes in the submerged part of ships, which sinks them.

“For this type of weapons to strike their target, they would need to move faster than the ship’s maximum speed, making early detection critical. Yet, the environmental conditions in the Red Sea are likely to occasionally hinder detection efforts. Sonar performance is heavily affected by environmental factors such as temperature, salinity, and pressure, which vary daily in the Red Sea,” Ozberk said.

“This weapon represents a significant asset for the Houthis and could pose a greater threat than previous missile and UAV attacks,” he said.

Force has not previously worked in countering the Houthi militias, which have been able to absorb attacks for long periods and even adapt to opponents with enough effectiveness to make the latter despair of battling them.

The alternative to further military efforts against the Houthis is to find a diplomatic solution to the Israeli wars in the region, since these are at the origin of the Houthi attacks.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly