The Ethiopian army has launched a military operation targeting rebel Fano militias in the Amhara region of the country in coordination with the region’s security forces.

 According to Ethiopian Army Spokesman Colonel Gitent Adan, the operation began at the end of September 2024, which explains why Addis Ababa has deployed Ethiopian Federal Forces over the past two weeks in the Amhara region, in parallel with its launching of an arbitrary mass arrest campaign in major cities throughout the Amhara region.

According to the Regional Director of the international rights group Amnesty International in Eastern and Southern Africa Tegiri Chagota, several government employees have also been arrested suspected of colluding with the Fano militias.

The development comes against a backdrop of escalation between the Fano militias and the Ethiopian Federal Government over the area of Tameh Johannes adjacent to the Sudanese border. This prompted Khartoum to close the Sudanese side of the border, thereby halting trade between Ethiopia and Sudan, along with the cessation of passport procedures.

Cutting off the supply of food and fuel from Sudan to the Amhara region of Ethiopia is a clear and direct challenge to the Ethiopian Federal Government.

The Amhara region, which has its own regional forces and militias, was a main supporter of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abey Ahmed government’s war on the Tigray People’s Liberation Forces (TPLF). However, the conflict between the Ahmed government and the Amhara Fano militias has now come into the open for a number of reasons.

The first is the refusal of the Amhara militias to surrender their weapons to the Ethiopian Federal Government. The conflict between the militias and the Ethiopian government dates back to April 2023, when the latter took the decision to disarm regional special forces, as well as militias throughout the country, including in the Amhara region, and establish one central force at the army and security forces level.

Another reason was the effort made by the Ahmed government to tighten its security and military control over all the country’s territories. It wants to ensure that there will be no repeat of other ethnic groups and armed militias, including the Amhara, replicating the Tigray People’s Liberation Forces (TPLF) insurgency in 2020,

The Ethiopian government’s decision to force the militias to surrender their weapons was categorically rejected by the Fano militias, as well as by some members of the Special Territorial Forces, which could be inferred by the registration of some 50 per cent of the Special Territorial Forces in the Amhara region also being members of the Fano militias.

This has deepened the situation of conflict in the Amhara region, and the A3 and B31 highways, the two main north-south highways between Amhara and Addis Ababa, have been closed following the outbreak of military operations.

Ahmed signed the Pretoria Peace Agreement with the Tigray region in 2022 without Amhara participation, and this led to tensions in the relationship between Ahmed and Amhara, making the latter into an enemy and rival of the Ahmed government. The decision of the Ahmed government to disarm the Special Territorial Forces and militias has deepened the discord between Ahmed and the Amhara region.

Ethiopia fears cooperation between the Fano militias and Eritrea, with the militias threatening Ethiopia’s territorial stability, sovereignty, and unity. Eritrea’s support for the militias comes in response to Ahmed’s talk of Ethiopia’s entitlement to a maritime outlet, even if this is a threat to Eritrea and strains relations between the two countries.

In response to such developments, Asmara has raised its troops to maximum alert, particularly those stationed on the Ethiopian border, in support of the Fano militias and in the wake of the bloody clashes between the militias and the Ethiopian Federal Forces that erupted in August 2023.

The Fano militias are providing support to Eritrean forces to tighten their control over Badme, Erup, and some border areas in the north of the Tigray region, as the most significant Eritrean gains resulting from the country’s involvement with Ethiopian forces in the war against the Tigray rebels.

This demonstrates coordination and tacit agreements to unite efforts against the Ahmed government and to clamp down on the Tigray region.

One of the reasons that exacerbates Ethiopia’s fears of the growing power and influence of the Fano militias in Amhara is the region’s high profile in recent years and its playing a role in fuelling the ethnic Amhara nationalist sentiment represented in the Amharic National Movement established in 2018.

Despite the multiplicity of Ethiopia’s internal crises, the crisis in the Amhara region comes as a new challenge to the Ahmed government, with heightened fears of a recurrence of the Tigray war scenario in Amhara possibly resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis, economic challenges, and strained Ethiopian relations with a number of regional powers including Eritrea and Somalia.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s continuation on the current path is extremely dangerous to the security and stability of the country and signals a dangerous future that threatens the cohesion of the Ethiopian state.

The writer is political researcher in African affairs.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 14 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly