I wrote last week about the US presidential elections that took place on 5 November and tried to imagine how the winner would deal with the situation in the Middle East, whether that winner was Democratic Party candidate Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican Party candidate former President Donald Trump.

Like hundreds of millions of people around the world, the election results took me by surprise. The former president won both the popular vote and the Electoral College to be elected the 47th president of the United States. He scored 312 Electoral College delegates as against 226 for Harris. The Republicans secured a majority in both houses of Congress. In the Senate, they now have 52 seats against 46 for Democrats. In the House of Representatives, the Republicans gained a majority of 214 against 203 for the Democrats.

For the next two years and until the mid-term elections in 2027 the newly elected President Trump and the Republicans will wield enormous political and legislative power to implement their political and economic agenda. That power will be felt without a doubt in US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.

In the Republican Party Platform that was approved last July by the party’s National Convention, the Republicans promised to fulfill 20 promises in a “forward-looking agenda” that covers domestic and foreign policy issues. On the latter, they promised “to prevent World War III, restore peace in Europe and in the Middle East, and build a Great Iron Dome Missile Shield over our entire country, all made in America.”

In Chapter Ten of the Republican Party Platform, sub-titled “Return to Peace Through Strength,” the Republicans say they will work on the modernisation of the US military and the strengthening of alliances by ensuring that US allies “must meet” their obligations in investing in “our common defence” and by restoring peace in Europe.

The platform promises that “we will stand with Israel and seek peace in the Middle East.” It says that the US “will rebuild our alliance network in the region” with the objective of ensuring a “future of peace, stability, and prosperity.”

The platform says of the Indo-Pacific that this is a region calling for “strong, sovereign, and independent nations thriving in peace and commerce” with other countries, a reference that I believe means China in this important region for US national interests.

As far as the Middle East is concerned and judging by the pro-Israel decisions of the first Trump administration (2017-2022), I believe that the next four years will not be different from the four years of the first administration. However, this time around the decisions that will be made by the second Trump administration will have more far-reaching in consequences in reshaping the Middle East. This should be of grave concern to the Palestinians and the Arab countries more generally.

Immediately, after Trump’s election victory Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called to congratulate him. According to the office of the latter, the two leaders discussed the question of Iran. Press reports say that Netanyahu has called Trump three times since 6 November.

I believe that Iran and how to deal with it will be of paramount importance for both Trump and Netanyahu over the next four years. It was not a coincidence that the Trump transitional team chose former State Department official Brian Hooks, a hawk when it comes to the conduct of US-Iranian relations and credited with working on the decision of the first Trump administration to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement in 2018, to vet officials that will deal with foreign policy issues in the second Trump administration.

I expect that the expansion of the Trump-inspired “Abraham Accords” of 2020 will be among the priorities of the next administration, this time to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Saudis have already made it clear that they will not take this step before the establishment of a Palestinian state, however.

It would be surprising to see the next Trump administration working enthusiastically to achieve such an objective.

The next four years in the Middle East could either lay the foundations for peace in the region or be a cause for permanent conflicts. The Palestinians and the Arab countries could have a role to play, and an important one, in steering the Middle East towards permanent peace, if they have the necessary and unified political will to withstand, challenge, and face up to the Israeli expansionist policies that have been amply demonstrated over the last 13 months in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

The writer is former assistant foreign minister.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 14 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly