Israel is acutely aware that the ongoing war in Gaza has reignited regional and international calls for peace, particularly the revival of the two-state solution, which envisions an Israeli state alongside a Palestinian state.

However, the exact contours, structure, and governance of this Palestinian state remain undefined. In response, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has moved decisively to preempt any progress towards such a state, even in its most limited form, building upon efforts initiated with the Oslo Accords nearly three decades ago.  

The Israeli government has adopted a dual-front strategy targeting Gaza and the West Bank. Through accelerated measures, it aims to eliminate the foundational conditions necessary for the establishment of a future Palestinian state. Leveraging the permissive environment created by the war marked by the silence, inaction, or tacit support of major powers, Israel has intensified its military destruction in Gaza while enabling extremist settlers to escalate violence in the West Bank under the watchful eyes of its security apparatus.  

Israel has also recalibrated its tactics in addressing the Palestinian issue, introducing structural changes to its longstanding policies. These adjustments are designed to destabilise the Palestinian Authority (PA), disorient Arab states advocating a two-state solution, and neutralise international support for Palestinian statehood. By entrenching a complex status quo, Israel aims to prevent the transition of the two-state vision from theoretical discourse to actionable reality.  

The current Israeli government’s actions reflect a deliberate strategy to delegitimise the concept of a future Palestinian state, portraying it as a regional burden and a threat to Israel’s existence. While many international actors view the two-state solution as the only viable path to lasting security, Israel frames it as a liability. This perspective has shaped its reaction to events like Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October 2023, which Israel countered with heightened violence and punitive measures to deter any similar future attempts by Palestinians or regional actors like Hizbullah.

A key driver of Israeli anxiety is Saudi Arabia’s insistence on linking normalisation with Israel to a meaningful resolution of the Palestinian issue, anchored in international legitimacy and the establishment of a Palestinian state. This linkage places Israel in a bind: normalisation with Riyadh is a strategic goal that could unlock unprecedented opportunities, yet the creation of a Palestinian state undermines Israel’s long-term ambitions. Netanyahu’s response has been to prolong the Gaza conflict, manoeuvre around ceasefire proposals, and strategically manage tensions with Hizbullah to weaken resistance forces across the region.  

While Israel avoids the outright rejection of peace overtures, it actively undermines the political groundwork for a two-state solution. Expanding settlements in the West Bank, legitimising illegal outposts, and enabling settler violence against Palestinians are part of a broader strategy. Combined with the devastation in Gaza and implicit threats of forced displacement to Egypt and Jordan, Israel is shaping a fragmented reality of isolated Palestinian enclaves. These disjointed territories lack cohesion, governance, and viability, all the while being subjected to the growing influence of Israel’s increasingly emboldened ultranationalist factions.  

The international community remains largely passive in the face of these developments, while the Arab states have yet to mount a coordinated response to Israel’s relentless efforts to extinguish the prospect of a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia’s proposal for an international coalition to support the two-state solution, emerging from the Riyadh summit earlier this month, has thus far lacked tangible actions. The lofty rhetoric of the Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh falls short of countering Israel’s violence and obstructionism.  

For Riyadh, maintaining its principled stance of tying normalisation to a resolution of the Palestinian issue is critical to avoiding the labyrinthine traps set by Israel. However, this position has been complicated by the return of Donald Trump to the White House next January, whose previous administration cultivated strong ties with Saudi Arabia and provided unflinching support to Israel. Such a scenario could embolden Netanyahu’s ambitions and further undermine Palestinian aspirations.  

Netanyahu’s foresight in crafting policies that preempt diplomatic pressures has positioned Israel to resist peace initiatives effectively. By creating facts on the ground, Israel ensures that any future negotiations start from a point of Israeli advantage. As discussions about post-conflict arrangements in Gaza and Lebanon gain momentum, Israel continues to press its agenda.  

In Lebanon, post-war efforts are expected to focus on curbing Hizbullah’s dominance and stabilising the southern border. Meanwhile, in Gaza, the war’s aftermath will inevitably address the future relationship between Palestinians and Israelis. However, Israel’s protracted military campaign aims not only to neutralise Hamas but also to render Gaza politically and geographically untenable for decades. The extensive destruction inflicted on Gaza’s infrastructure and its fragmentation into isolated pockets are calculated to obstruct any meaningful discourse on statehood.  

Israel’s strategy extends beyond exploiting Palestinian internal divisions and perpetuating the dichotomy between resistance and peace. It seeks to introduce new, divisive narratives surrounding Gaza’s governance, reconstruction, and the marginalisation of both the PA and Hamas. These evolving complexities could stall progress on statehood indefinitely, effectively erasing the two-state solution from the international agenda.  

The international community and the Arab states must confront this existential challenge to the Palestinian cause. Without concerted action, Israel’s calculated manoeuvres will not only nullify the prospect of a Palestinian state but also irrevocably dismantle the broader Palestinian issue.  

With the anticipated return of a Trump-led administration in the US, Israel is poised to receive unwavering support to advance its agenda. Many of Trump’s key appointees share Netanyahu’s vision, which bodes ill for any revival of the two-state solution. Breaking this cycle will require a robust and coordinated Palestinian-Arab strategy capable of disrupting Israel’s long-term plans and revitalising the pursuit of a just and lasting resolution to the conflict.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly