Donald Trump’s rise to power in the 2016 US presidential elections was portrayed by some as a momentary “glitch” in the long course of US political history.

However, his victory in the presidential elections that took place on 5 November, beating his Democratic Party opponent and current Vice President Kamala Harris by a much larger margin than many of the polls had predicted, suggests a major historical shift that casts him as a “revolutionary” figure defying the US political establishment and traditional elite.

The Trump phenomenon can be largely traced to economic factors. The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession hit working class Americans very hard, especially those living in rural and industrial areas.

Mass layoffs, soaring prices, and declining living standards fed increasingly widespread discontent against the political establishment. Trump tapped into this, attracting growing support among voters who felt betrayed by the mainstream Democratic and Republican Parties, which were perceived to be supporting corporate interests over the needs of ordinary people.

Trump built his campaigns for his 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential runs around the slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). This targeted primarily white working class Americans who saw their country’s political and economic system as corrupt and who felt marginalised by globalisation and demographic shifts.

According to many polls, the majority of US voters felt that their country was on the wrong track. The growing anger and frustration at the performance of the Federal Government in the US ensured a receptive audience to Trump’s anti-establishment message.

In 2016, Trump cultivated an image that contrasted with the more mainstream politicians who inhabit the higher echelons of government and the political parties in the US. He was the outsider who would storm the citadel, break with the status quo, and bring in a fresh perspective on governance and policymaking. His rhetoric targeted not only Democratic elites but also the mainstream elites of the Republican Party. This enabled him to forge a broad coalition of disaffected voters across partisan lines.

He followed a similar strategy to return to the White House, pledging to “return America” to its people from the corrupt establishment that had hijacked it. Again, he channelled public frustration against the Democrats in power and against Republicans whom he accused of working with the “deep state” to obstruct his agenda. He also homed in on grievances shared by broad segments of the public who felt their needs and concerns were being ignored by the establishment.  

On the core concern of many Americans, the economy, Trump’s populist “America First” platform pledged to bring jobs back home, reduce dependence on foreign economies, and rebuild industries across the US. Promising to prioritise American workers, he opposed existing trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he claimed took jobs away from America and benefited multinational corporations.

Trump’s brand of economic nationalism, which held that the government’s globalisation and free-trade policies had left American workers vulnerable, resonated among many voters, especially those in the so-called “rust belt” who felt betrayed by Democratic and Republican elites in Washington and their policy priorities.

Trump’s campaign also capitalised on the sense of alienation and resentment among voters who felt that traditional American norms were being placed under siege by liberal elites promoting LGBTQ+ rights, abortion, immigration, identity politics, and other values that come under the heading of “woke” culture.

Casting himself as the champion of American identity, Trump pledged to be tough on immigration, epitomised during his first term in office by his proposal to build a wall along the US-Mexico border to keep immigrants out. His hardline position, which challenged the more moderate immigration policies espoused by the US political establishment, found favour among voters concerned by what they perceived as national security and cultural threats.

Throughout his 2024 election campaign, as in his previous campaigns, Trump locked horns with the mainstream media, characterising it as biased, lying, and in league with the “deep state.” His hostility to the media was another facet of his populist approach, as many of his supporters also distrusted the mainstream media, and he reinforced his appeal by communicating with his base through social media and alternative platforms.

By controlling his own narrative and engaging with his base, Trump was able to maintain a constant presence in public consciousness and shape the political conversation on his own terms. This too resonated with many Americans fed up with being hounded by the dogmas of political correctness in the mainstream media and lectured at by political elites who had appointed themselves guardians of this creed.

While Trump’s electoral victories in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections have confirmed his success in capitalising on such voter discontent, the repercussions of his approach have serious implications for the future of the American system of government and the possible decline of the American model itself.

The most immediate repercussion of Trump’s investment in anti-establishment populism is the sharpening polarisation that has been talking place across the US. Such growing tensions have been manifested not only across the political divides but also across racial and ethnic divides. Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric is flagrantly racist and xenophobic, and it has brought out such sentiments among segments of the population who feel threatened by immigration and demographic changes in the US.

In like manner, Trump’s invectives against the establishment “swamp” and the mainstream media’s “fake news,” together with various legal rulings that have worked against his agenda, have helped to foster mistrust towards democratic institutions that could ultimately work to undermine the checks and balances that are the hallmark of the American system of government, setting it apart from other democratic systems.

The success of Trump’s anti-establishment populism in ushering him back into office could encourage other politicians to follow suit. This could aggravate the shift in American politics away from consensus-based governance to a more polarised and confrontational system.

However, many analysts maintain that the fundamental institutions of American democracy are robust and able to withstand such challenges. The separation of powers, the cornerstone of the American political system, is still intact. The legislature, the judiciary, and the Federal Government have all retained their respective powers, which were not significantly weakened during Trump’s first term in office. The judiciary, in particular, has demonstrated its independence by ruling against Trump in prominent cases.

Trump as a “revolutionary” phenomenon is about more than his electoral victories in the 2016 and 2024 elections. It reflects a tectonic shift in American political culture. By harnessing widespread voter discontent with establishment elites, economic grievances, cultural malaise, and deep undercurrents of anger and frustration, Trump has reshaped the political landscape in ways that challenge conventional understandings of government.

The question that now haunts many in the US and abroad is whether American democracy can resist or whether it will adapt to these revolutionary currents. Trump’s next four years in the White House holds the answer to this question, which will be decisive in determining the future of the US.

The writer is specialist researcher in American affairs and assistant editor-in-chief in Al-Siyasa Al-Dawliya.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly