The US has had 46 presidents since it was founded after a series of historical events: the Declaration of Independence on 4 July 1776, liberation from British colonial rule in 1783, the failed confederal experiment (1781-1787), the drafting and ratification of the US constitution (1787 and 1789), and the election that gave it its first president, George Washington (1789-1797). Between him and the 47th, the US has seen major changes in thinking and outlooks, with miles of difference between successive eras and their times. The first group of presidents were all sons of the revolution: John Adams (1797-1801), Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809), James Madison (1809-1817), and James Monroe (1817-1825). Apart from Adams, who served one term, they all served two. In so doing they followed the precedent set by the first president, which was only broken once, by Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1945), due to the circumstances of World War II. The maximum two term principle was subsequently cemented by the 22nd Amendment (1951).

The first group of presidents established the constitutional foundations of the state, then grappled with two main issues: slavery and the borders of the fledging country, which quickly expanded westward and southward, incorporating new states into the federal union. Under president Monroe, the US established itself as the leader of the Western hemisphere, claiming the Americas as its vital sphere of influence.

The question of slavery continued to dominate US politics in the 19th century, while rapid technological and economic progress and development laid the groundwork for stability and the eventual foray into 20th century internationalism. The US was thus poised to become one of the heirs to the empires that fell in World War I and then to share global leadership with the Soviet Union after World War II. After the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US spearheaded the era of globalisation that ushered the world into the 21st century. Against this global backdrop, it has had three elections in eight years in which the Republican Donald Trump was one of the candidates. The Democratic contenders facing him were Hillary Clinton (2016), Joseph Biden (2020), and Kamala Harris (2024). As we know, Trump lost the second race and won the first and third. The three electoral battles were governed by two phenomena.

First, the outcomes reflected deep economic and social conditions that were at once unexpected and far reaching in their political ramifications. The third and fourth industrial revolutions based, respectively, on information technology and artificial intelligence have made their indelible mark on politics. At the end of the last century, the belief prevailed that the technological revolution would generate not only more prosperity but also more well-paying jobs, improving the lives of workers. The reality turned out differently. The revolution that gave us the Google search engine, Facebook friends, mobile phone applications, Twitter tweets, and Amazon shopping, did not produce all that many jobs. Economically, the result was a disconnect between technological advancement and higher employment rates. The political results went deeper. As the maps of voting patterns showed, the divide between Republican and Democrat was no longer ideological but geographical, based on proximity to centres of the technological revolutions.

Secondly, demographics are the source of another major divide. On one side there are those who support ethnic and religious diversity, taking this to be an essential American principle. On the other there are those for whom the essence of Americanness is the continued dominance of people of white Christian European origin over American life and identity. The immediate cause of this growing divide is illegal immigration, especially from Latin America. Latinos, together with African- Americans, make up a sizeable minority that traditionally supports the Democratic Party which then needs only a small segment of white voters to win an election. Trump did not discriminate between Biden, Harris, or Obama. But he did exploit demographic shifts to mobilise the right against what he called the “invasion” of the US through an illegal immigration which he even likened to a terrorist operation.

These two phenomena are likely to continue for some time to come given how they manifest deeper trends in American life. When historians look back on the 2016 and 2024 elections, they might underscore the significance of the gender factor—two women, Clinton and Harris, as the Democratic candidates against Trump—or they might focus on the role played by this madcap billionaire. However, they might produce more insightful analyses by focusing on the sociopolitical impacts of technological developments and demographic changes.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly