When US president-elect Donald Trump announced his victory in the early morning of 6 November, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi was among the first world leaders to congratulate him.

During a phone call that followed the official announcement of the poll results, Al-Sisi expressed Egypt’s interest in working with the new administration and building on Egypt’s decades-long bilateral ties with the US.

Recalling how Egyptian-American relations prospered during Trump’s first presidential term, President Al-Sisi has expressed the hope that “President Trump’s second term in office will be of mutual benefit to our two countries and promote peace and stability in the region.”

When Trump escaped an assassination attempt during an electoral rally in July, Al-Sisi condemned the “treacherous” incident and wished the former US president a speedy recovery.

Political commentator and military strategist Samir Farag notes that, after Presidents Al-Sisi and Trump forged a close personal relationship during the latter’s first term in office, “Trump’s return to the White House is likely to benefit Egypt in political, economic, and military terms.”

Unlike the Obama and Biden administrations, Farag does not expect the Trump administration to use the issue of human rights to pressure Egypt.

“In his first term, Trump emphasised many times that unlike the Democrats he does not like to use the issue of human rights to meddle in the internal affairs of other countries,” said Farag.

Obama and Biden briefly suspended tranches of US military aid to Egypt over its human rights record. And neither Obama nor Biden invited Al-Sisi to the White House. In contrast, Trump invited Al-Sisi twice — first in April 2017 and then in April 2019 — and is on record as describing President Al-Sisi as “a friend of mine”.

“We met during the campaign [in September 2016 while Al-Sisi was visiting New York to attend the UN General Assembly] and we got along right away, and we understood each other very well,” said Trump. He added that Al-Sisi is “a very tough man and he is also a good man, and he’s done a fantastic job in Egypt.”

Ahmed Abaza, head of parliament’s Arab Relations Committee, agrees that human rights are unlikely to be on the agenda of Egyptian-American relations under Trump, and there is little likelihood of a repeat of a freeze on aid money. He also points out that Egypt’s role in mediating between Israel and Hamas over the past year has solidified its importance as a US ally.

Abaza believes that the close relationship between Trump and Al-Sisi during Trump’s first term in office was aided by the fact there were no major regional conflicts, and Egypt was not facing economic challenges.

In 2017, the Trump administration did withhold some aid to Egypt’s military, not for human rights reasons but because Egypt was alleged to have secret relations with North Korea. The aid was released a year later.

In his first term, says Farag, Trump cooperated with Cairo by pressing Ethiopia to reach an agreement on the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD). In 2019-20, Washington hosted meetings between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia only for Ethiopia to withdraw.

“I think Trump’s election will have come as bad news to Ethiopia, which could now face economic pressure to resolve the dam issue.”

Farag also believes that Trump’s election will help cement Egypt’s position as a major player in the Horn of Africa.

Officials and observers in Cairo are hoping that Trump’s strongman style will bring an end to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and with them Yemeni Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that has reduced the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal and harmed Egypt’s economy.

“Throughout his campaign, Trump pledged to bring stability to the region and we hope this happens. Egypt has suffered enough economic harm as a result of regional conflicts,” said Abaza.

Egypt announced this month that Houthi attacks on commercial shipping passing through Bab Al-Mandab Strait and the southern Red Sea had cost Egypt $6 billion in lost transit fees.

While Abaza does not expect Trump to exert pressure on Israel to stop its wars, he thinks Trump “might resort to the Abraham Accords-style he adopted in his first term in office to encourage Israel to end the war as a precursor to diplomatic relations with Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.”

Trump will enter the White House just as key mediator Qatar is withdrawing from negotiations, which Abaza argues strengthens Egypt’s hand by shoring up Cairo’s role as a dependable negotiator.

Business is also optimistic that Trump’s return to the White House as US president will translate into greater American investments in Egypt.

Omar Mehanna, head of the Egyptian-American Business Council, notes that “Trump has expressed the wish to see American companies expanding in world markets, including Egypt where the investment climate has dramatically improved and the country is offering many incentives to foreign businessmen and investors.”

In a recent meeting with Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli, US Ambassador to Egypt Herro Mustafa Garg pointed out that 1,200 American companies are operating in the Egyptian market. Garg also expressed her country’s wish to support more direct American investments in Egypt. According to the Central Bank of Egypt, the US was the fourth largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Egypt during FY 2022-23, following the UAE, Italy, and Saudi Arabia. American companies invested $2.3 billion in Egypt, accounting for 10 per cent of total FDI inflows.

Mehanna also hopes that under Trump relations between Egypt and the IMF will improve and the latter will not use its loans to push Cairo into adopting economic measures that could trigger social unrest.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly