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flurry of overt and covert communications has taken place between Iran and US President-elect Donald Trump’s team, signalling efforts to gauge intentions and explore paths towards resolving longstanding disputes.

These exchanges represent tentative steps towards recalibrating relations in preparation for Trump’s second term in office that begins in January.

At first glance, Trump’s return seems deeply concerning for Iranian leaders. His first presidency (2017–2021) was defined by the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal, a “maximum pressure” campaign through stringent sanctions, and the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, a central figure in Iran’s military strategy.

Yet, assuming that a second Trump administration would mimic the first, oversimplifies the issue. The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has shifted significantly, with new dynamics shaping regional priorities.

Iran has adjusted its strategic calculus, and Trump himself may adopt a modified approach to the Iranian issue. These evolving factors suggest that US-Iranian relations under Trump in his second term may diverge from their previous trajectory and potentially chart a new course.

When Trump left the White House four years ago, the Middle East was on the brink of transformation. The “Abraham Accords” heralded a new era of normalisation between Israel and countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, fostering a vision of a united regional front against Iran.

Saudi Arabia was also exploring the normalisation of relations with Israel, seeking concessions such as a peaceful nuclear programme and a defence pact with the US.

However, the trajectory shifted dramatically following the events of 7 October 2023. The Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent wars in Gaza and Lebanon disrupted regional dynamics. Israel’s military actions, coupled with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion that “Israel’s hand can reach anywhere in the Middle East,” recast Israel, not Iran, as the dominant destabilising force in the region.

During his September address to the UN, Netanyahu presented a map that envisioned a “Greater Israel”  encompassing the West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, and parts of Southern Lebanon. His rhetoric implicitly threatened neighbouring Arab states, including Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, while categorically dismissing the establishment of a Palestinian state.

This stance positions Israel as the primary source of instability in the region. “Netanyahu’s actions and rhetoric have alienated potential partners and diminished any credibility as a proponent of normalisation,” an Arab diplomat in London told Al-Ahram Weekly.

“For many leaders in the region, the principal threat is no longer Iranian influence but Israel’s expansionist policies and the rise of its extreme nationalist right.”

As Israel’s actions fracture prospects for regional unity, a contrasting development has emerged: the deepening ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Their 2023 China-mediated agreement to restore diplomatic relations has paved the way for significant political, economic, and military cooperation. The rapprochement is further supported by high-level visits, agreements, and discussions of joint naval exercises.

Over the past four years, Middle Eastern states have also enhanced their military and economic ties with China. Offering advanced technology, state-of-the-art weaponry, and strategic partnerships, China increasingly eclipses the US in the region. Beijing’s vision of a multipolar world, embodied in initiatives like the BRICS group, aligns with regional aspirations for balanced international relations.

As Trump prepares for his return to office in the US, his political approach has evolved. This time, Trump commands unprecedented political capital, with control over the Senate, House of Representatives, and Supreme Court, alongside key state governorships.

Recognising this as his final opportunity to solidify his legacy, he has chosen a streamlined team aligned with his vision, excluding hawks from his first administration, such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.

Trump’s first term “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran yielded little tangible success. This time around, he appears poised to explore alternative strategies, perhaps even seeking a groundbreaking agreement with Iran, a feat he has claimed only he can accomplish. His objectives may include reviving the nuclear deal and pursuing diplomatic solutions rather than escalating military tensions.

This shift also reflects Trump’s wary relationship with Netanyahu. Their strained rapport dates back to Netanyahu’s swift recognition of Biden’s 2020 election victory, a gesture Trump has not forgotten.

Moreover, any escalation against Iran would risk drawing the US into prolonged conflicts, a scenario Trump is eager to avoid. Instead, he appears focused on profitable deals, recognising Iran’s strategic importance as a major oil producer and a key market.

Indicative of this approach, businessman Elon Musk, slated to lead the Trump administration’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” recently held a discreet meeting with Iranian UN Ambassador Amir Saeed Iravani.

According to the New York Times, the discussion centred on de-escalating US-Iranian tensions and fostering improved relations.  

As the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East evolve and with Trump’s return to the US Presidency, Iran too finds itself at a pivotal juncture. These changes have prompted Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to reassess both domestic and regional strategies.

Iran’s internal challenges are mounting. Societally, the regime faces increasing defiance from a younger, more progressive generation, exemplified by the growing number of women openly rejecting the mandatory hijab or headscarf. This cultural resistance signals a deeper shift in societal values, highlighting generational and ideological divides that the regime struggles to bridge.

Economically, Iran remains burdened by crippling sanctions, limiting its ability to provide employment and improve living standards. Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has promised better relations with the West and the lifting of sanctions, and achieving these goals is critical for the regime’s stability.

Addressing these issues is no longer optional; they are essential for maintaining internal cohesion and averting potential uprisings.

Regionally, Iran’s influence through its allies faces unprecedented threats. Hizbullah, a cornerstone of its strategy since the 1980s, is under severe military and political pressure. Syria, another critical ally, is grappling with unrest and recurrent US airstrikes aimed at pressuring Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to distance himself from Iran’s sphere of influence.

In response, senior Iranian envoy Ali Larijani recently visited Syria and Lebanon to reinforce Tehran’s support for its allies and advocate for a ceasefire in Lebanon that preserves Hizbullah’s position.

Adding to these challenges is the looming end of the Khamenei era. Speculation about his successor is rife, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a likely candidate.

Mojtaba’s ascension, however, would depend on ensuring internal stability and public satisfaction. For his leadership to gain acceptance, Iran must address its economic and social grievances and ensure a smooth transition free from external interference.

This context has sparked comparisons between Mojtaba Khamenei and Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman. Both represent a younger leadership pledging reforms in areas like corruption, economic development, and personal freedoms.

While Saudi Arabia has made tangible social progress under Bin Salman, Mojtaba’s ability to replicate such reforms, if he were to replace this father, hinges on support from Iran’s clerical establishment, the Revolutionary Guards, and the security apparatus.

Improving relations with the US could play a crucial role in this transition. Reviving the nuclear deal and lifting sanctions would alleviate economic pressures, create jobs, and address the growing social and generational divide.

Such improvements would not only stabilise Iran internally but also neutralise external threats during a potentially vulnerable leadership transition.

Iran appears to be signalling its willingness to explore improved relations with Trump. Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for Political Affairs, noted that the 2015 nuclear deal “could still serve as a foundation” for renewed talks.

Similarly, Majid Ansari, Iran’s vice-president for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs, expressed his openness to negotiations, provided the US engages fairly.

However, the unpredictable nature of Middle Eastern politics complicates this calculus. Rapid developments in the region could shift priorities overnight, making long term predictions uncertain.

While better US-Iranian relations are a conceivable pathway to stability, the fluidity of the current geopolitical landscape ensures that the road ahead remains complex and uncertain.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly