US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine, which has already resulted in major geopolitical shifts, not least the Russian-North Korean rapprochement epitomised in a recently concluded strategic partnership.

“We’re going to work on the Middle East, and we’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s got to stop,” Trump said at a gala event at his Mar-a-Lago estate on 15 November. Expressing his sorrow over the thousands of people who died in that war just in the past few days, he added, “they happened to be soldiers, but whether they’re soldiers or they’re people sitting in towns, we’re going to work it.” 

Long a critic of government spending on the war, which he says is draining US resources, Trump has pledged to end it “within 24 hours.”

Kyiv appears to have reconciled itself to a shift in US policy and the likelihood of a reduction in American military and financial aid. In an interview on Ukrainian radio on 16 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “From our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” He also acknowledged the significant advances Russian forces have been making on the ground in eastern Ukraine in recent months.

In a previous radio interview, Zelensky related that he had a “constructive” telephone exchange with the US president-elect after his victory and concluded, “it is certain that the war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House. This is their approach, their promise to their citizens.” 

For his part President Vladimir Putin welcomed the prospect of talks with Trump, saying his expressions of the desire to end the Ukraine conflict “deserve attention, at the very least.” Speaking at a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi on 7 November, Putin praised Trump’s “courageous” response to the assassination attempts against him last summer. Trump, for his part, said he looked forward to talking with Putin soon.

Trump’s cabinet picks are another indication of the direction his administration will take on Ukraine. Marco Rubio, whom he has named secretary of state, has also criticised the Biden administration’s continued investment of billions of dollars in a war with no vision for ending it. He holds that Ukraine should seek a negotiated settlement to end hostilities in a way favourable to Ukraine, instead of focusing on reclaiming territories through military means.

During the recent European Political Community meeting in Budapest on 7 November, Zelensky did not conceal his worries over the prospective wind-down in US material support under Trump. While avoiding criticism of Trump, he focused on Trump’s “commitment to ‘peace through strength’ in global affairs” and asked Europeans to do the same. He then said, “we need sufficient weapons, not just support in talks.”

Trump has repeatedly criticised the Ukrainian president’s requests for additional US aid, saying, “it never ends.”

The outgoing Biden administration intends to release the remaining $6 billion of Ukraine funding before Trump takes office in January. In addition, the Biden administration announced on 8 November that it would begin to send “military contractors” to Ukraine to maintain and repair advanced military equipment provided by the US and other Western powers, such as the Patriot air defence system, M-1 tanks and F-16 fighter jets.

Trump is expected to reverse the Biden administration’s policy on Ukraine on taking office and recalling the contractors may be one of the first steps he takes towards this end because of the escalatory risks and the lack of transparency. Some analysts suggest that weakening or threatening to weaken Ukrainian defences would facilitate the Trump vision for a negotiated end to the war.

Trump’s anticipated plans to steer a US policy shift on Ukraine are informed by other factors apart from wasteful war spending. First, he believes that China, not Russia, presents the greatest threat to US power and influence. During his campaign, he said he would increase tariffs on Chinese imports and step up efforts to contain Beijing’s regional and international influence. Secondly, he wants to break up the close strategic relation that developed between Moscow and Beijing as a consequence of the US/NATO handling of Ukraine and other issues. Trump also believes that the longer the West supports Kyiv, the closer Russia will draw to North Korea. The personal factor is likely to come into play in these issues, especially the relationship between Trump and Putin. The third and main factor for Trump is the US economy. He wants to generate conditions to stimulate a recovery in the main US manufacturing sectors and to create jobs through a combination of protectionist measures and injections of money saved from cutbacks in expenditures on foreign wars which, he claims, do not serve the US interests.

Trump’s declared goal of ending the war in Ukraine feeds into the general reorientation of the American compass towards the domestic interior, in keeping with the populist “America First” slogan that swept him into power for a second term. Will he be able to live up to that pledge?

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly under the title: Ukraine War ‘has got to stop’