This week, Russia used its UN Security Council (UNSC) veto to block a draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in the 20-month-long war in Sudan and the launch of negotiations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The draft resolution was proposed by the UK, penholder on Sudan, and Sierra Leone, a non-permanent member of the UNSC.

On Monday, following the UNSC meeting, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the veto “a disgrace”. According to Lammy, the resolution could have started a process to end a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions.

According to SAF head Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan, the language of the draft violated the sovereignty of Sudan. An Arab diplomatic source at the UN explained Al-Burhan’s position: the draft, he said, “implied equivalence between the SAF and the RSF and this is not something that Al-Burhan could accept, especially now the SAF is making advances on the ground and has secured stronger political support at the regional and international levels.”

Egyptian diplomatic sources agree that the draft resolution failed to reflect the balance of power on the ground which, according to one, “has certainly moved in favour of the SAF”.

“Today, the SAF controls more Sudanese territory” and Al-Burhan enjoys greater international recognition than the RSF and its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti.

It is an assessment shared by Cairo-based foreign diplomats. They point out that Hemedti is head of a militia — the RSF — established in 2013 by Omar Al-Bashir to protect his brutal regime and which has committed many atrocities, especially in Darfur. Along with other RSF figures, Hemedti has been accused by international humanitarian bodies of ethnic cleansing, targeting non-Arab tribes in western Darfur.

Al-Burhan chose Hemedti as his deputy chair on the Transitional Sovereignty Council formed after the ouster of Al-Bashir. The move prompted criticism from the African Union. “This was not a good sign at all. It showed that Al-Bashir’s successors were trying to reconstruct his dictatorial regime but with a democratic façade,” said a former AU diplomat. She added that the council was more about power sharing within Al-Bashir’s clique than anything else.

Officials in Cairo argue that the situation was much more layered. It was “only natural”, they argue, for the SAF leader to assume the helm during the transition.

“Sudan is a highly tribal and ethnic society. There had to be one umbrella and given the limited influence of Sudan’s political parties at the time the only force that could hold things together was the SAF,” said an Egyptian diplomat who has served in Sudan. He added that to ensure stability, Al-Burhan had little choice but to appoint Hemedti, “a highly ambitious man who headed a well-armed militia”.

In the view of Egyptian officials, Sudan’s problems in large part stem from regional powers jockeying to control the country’s natural resources and benefit from its strategic position.

“It is an open secret that it was an Arab capital with large investments and interests in Sudan that pushed Russia to use its veto,” said one Egyptian official. He added that despite the veto, Cairo will continue to push to “fix the situation in Sudan”.

“We have been closely monitoring the situation in Sudan since the start of the conflict and over the last year have cooperated with like-minded regional partners to give peace a chance in Sudan,” said the same official. He added that in the view of Cairo, which is shared by Ankara and Tehran, the best chance for peace is for Sudan to have a single army with a single command — “otherwise the country will move from one war to another.”

In the last 11 months Cairo has hosted a series of meetings with representatives from Sudan’s armed, political, and religious forces with the goal of forming a united front capable of working with the SAF on a power-sharing, stability-building basis.

“As the SAF has made military advances against the RSF,” the pool of Sudanese players willing to take part has been getting bigger, says the Egyptian official. He argued that it is only a matter of time before the RSF is forced to acknowledge its dwindling position despite the support it receives from its regional allies.

As well as the UAE, which openly acknowledges its close relations with the RSF, Hemedti is also supported by Ethiopia. According to a UN source, Ethiopia is heavily involved in transferring arms and weapons to the RSF which “really aided them at the beginning of the war”. It was only when Al-Burhan began to receive “solid support” from his own regional allies that the tide turned in favour of the SAF.

The conflict between the SAF and RSF began in mid-April 2023. In the wake of the ouster of Al-Bashir, Al-Burhan and Hemedti had joined hands, securing control but allowing some limited power-sharing with civilian faces. But when, in October 2022, Al-Burhan removed the temporary civil government, Hemedti spied his chance and came out against Al-Burhan, arguing that the move was “undemocratic”.

According to Arab diplomatic sources, including those who have served in Khartoum, Hemedti’s talk of democracy rings hollow. The reality, they say, is that Hemedti was always power hungry and thought he could strike a deal with the civil government to replace Al-Burhan as head of the army.

Since the beginning of the war, 11 million Sudanese have been displaced. The UN estimates that half this number are children, the majority of whom lack access to basic nutrition. On top of these, a further 15 million Sudanese suffer from food scarcity and lack of basic healthcare.

It was only in mid-August that significant UN humanitarian aid was channelled into Sudan through the Adre Crossing Border which connects Darfur with Chad. According to UNHCR, in 2023 just over 50 per cent of the $2.7 billion aid budget needed for humanitarian relief to Sudan was secured.

“What Sudan needs goes beyond immediate humanitarian aid. Sudan needs a proper and enforceable peace plan. This is what we are working on, and we have the support of several world and regional capitals, including Washington,” said the Egyptian official.

According to David Perritto, the US envoy to Sudan, outgoing US President Joe Biden is hard at work to secure a deal for Sudan before he leaves the White House on 20 January. But the deadline, says the Egyptian official, is too optimistic.

“We will be lucky if we see any movement by then and it will take much longer to secure a deal,” he warns, meaning much will depend on the position of the incoming administration of US President Donald Trump.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly