Last week two US Navy destroyers, USS Spruance and USS Stockdale, were about to cross the Bab al-Mandeb Strait into the Gulf of Aden while the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier was being escorted by three Arleigh Burke class destroyers heading west.
Houthi forces based in Yemen launched a ferocious attack on the two warships, sparking a dangerous engagement between the two sides.
The US Central Command CENTCOM said of the clash that “US forces executed a series of precise airstrikes on multiple Houthi weapons storage facilities situated within Houthi-controlled territories in Yemen.”
“The targeted operation was conducted in response to the Houthi’s repeated attacks on international commercial shipping, as well as US, coalition, and merchant vessels in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden. It also aimed to degrade the Houthi’s ability to threaten regional partners.”
The US Navy has demonstrated different aircraft formations for Dynamic Targeting (DT) and Time Sensitive Targeting (TST) operations in various videos. These include MQ-9 reconnaissance drones, which track moving targets like anti-ship ballistic missile platforms, F/A-18 aircraft carrying guided bombs, and F-35C aircraft.
Last week’s engagement was the first time F-35C aircraft have participated in operations in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with E/A-18G electronic warfare aircraft providing coverage to jam Houthi air-defence systems.
“US Navy destroyers, along with US Air Force and US Navy aircraft successfully defeated a range of Houthi-launched weapons while transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. These forces successfully engaged and defeated eight one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS), five anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), and four anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), ensuring the safety of the ships and their personnel,” CENTCOM said.
There are numerous implications of this engagement, the most prominent being the Houthis’ regaining the ability to launch a mixed attack with multi-type ammunition on a moving naval target, extremely dangerous for warships and civilian vessels alike.
After 11 months of the US attempting to eliminate these capabilities, it appears that the Houthis have regained their offensive capability, with the objective or targeting warships in the Red Sea.
The question now is what the US policy response to these attacks will be, notably with the arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump in the White House in January. The Houthis now have new and more deadly systems, and the conflict in the Red Sea shows no signs of diminishing.
Bahnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the US Foundation for Defence of Democracies, was quoted by the US Website Axios as warning that Houthi actions with Iranian support "have proven to be a lethal combination.”
The Al-Ahram Weekly asked Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at Kings College London in the UK, and Tayfun Ozberk, a former Turkish naval officer and now an analyst for the Website Naval News, for their views of the situation.
The Houthis are expected to carry out similar attacks on warships in the coming weeks and months, and these may cause great damage. During the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian Navy has suffered from Ukrainian attacks similar to those carried out by the Houthis, and these indicate something of the stakes involved.
“The recent engagement in the Red Sea served as a crucial test of the operational readiness of US naval forces, particularly the Arleigh Burke class destroyers. From an outsider’s perspective, these successes might seem straightforward, but the reality is far more complex,” Ozberk said.
“Intercepting an incoming missile, even one utilising older technology, is a challenging process that demands well-maintained systems and highly trained personnel. Only a handful of warships worldwide possess the capability to neutralise an incoming missile in a real combat scenario.”
“The Russian Black Sea Fleet, in contrast, faced significant challenges when confronted by Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV). Several of its ships have been struck by kamikaze USVs. Although such attacks represent a relatively new dimension of naval warfare, the Russians have struggled to adapt, whereas the US Navy has successfully mitigated similar asymmetric threats in the Red Sea.”
The cost of the US Navy's military operation “Prosperity Guardian” against the Houthis in the Red Sea has exceeded $2 billion, largely because of the high cost of the missiles used.
A single SM-2 missile costs $2.4 million and is used to intercept missiles or drones costing only tens of thousands of dollars. Such considerations will be taken into account when decisions are made whether or not to extend the operations.
“Relying on expensive missile systems to counter relatively low-cost drones is neither economically nor logistically sustainable. This asymmetry in cost-effectiveness is a pressing issue in modern warfare,” Ozberk said.
“The threats of the 21st century cannot be countered with the tactics and tools of the 20th. Developing innovative, cost-effective methods to address these challenges will be critical in ensuring naval superiority in an evolving threat landscape.”
The situation in the Red Sea will be one of the top priorities of Trump's new Administration, and he should be able to make difficult deals with the support of the majority of his Party in the US Senate.
However, for Krieg, “it is unlikely that Trump will be able to bring the crisis to an end. Trump would need to convene Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UK, as well as internal non-state actors, to come to a comprehensive solution in Yemen. There is no military solution to the Houthi problem. The Houthis have been emboldened to continue the pressure on the US and UK. They have nothing to lose.”
Iran is also seeking an active regional role through its militias in the Middle East region with a view to ensuring better negotiation conditions with the US and others. It has no respect for the needs of countries containing these militias, as has been evidenced by the large human losses resulting from their conflict with the US and Israel.
There is, however, a possibility that the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea can be ended if there is an end to the fighting in Gaza. This may also be possible if the next US Administration reaches an agreement with the Iranian side.
“The Red Sea crisis requires an inclusive multi-stakeholder initiative to end the political chaos in Yemen. The Saudis and the Omanis have a good pathway forward, but the UAE are spoiling it. The UK and the US have no strategy to find a political solution,” Krieg said.
“The war there is also no longer about Gaza. The Houthis are now retaliating against the UK and the US as punishment for their involvement in it, and this will continue.”
Last Saturday, the Houthis attacked the Israeli port of Eilat using drones, according to statements by Houthi Spokesman Yahya Srei. This means that the Houthis have become adapted to US and Israeli counterattacks and that these have failed to deter them from continuing their military operations.
With the risk of the withdrawal of the two US destroyers in the Gulf of Aden, there is only USS Cole left in the Red Sea, and this will not be enough to defend cargo ships transiting the area.
Diplomatic efforts should be employed as soon as possible to resolve the crisis, which is expected to be prolonged.
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