On 26 November, Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham launched the largest attack since 2016 in northern and northwestern Syria, seizing Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and a foothold in the province of Idlib and making headway into the city of Hama.

The Syrian government based in Damascus has been able to rally several regional and international allies' support amid the upsurge of violence spearheaded by the Turkish-backed militant group Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham’s attack. 

International allies support Assad
 

On Monday, the Spokesperson for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces Major General Yahya Rasool announced the deployment of "armoured units" from the Iraqi army into the country's western borders in light of the armed factions' attacks in neighbouring Syria.

This announcement followed the alleged entry of Iranian-backed militias into Syria overnight from Iraq, heading to northern Syria to support the Syrian army in its battle against insurgents, according to a Reuters report. 

Iran has also moved independently to help secure the Syrian government. 

Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi headed to Ankara on Sunday, likely to try dissuading Turkey from supporting its proxy further into the government-held regions of Syria, after holding talks in Damascus to deliver a message of support to Al-Assad.  

Russia has also spoken out in support of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. 

"We, of course, continue to support Bashar al-Assad and we continue contacts at the appropriate levels, we are analysing the situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. 

Russian fighter jets conducted a number of airstrikes in Syria on Sunday, targeting Aleppo, the northwestern city of Idlib, and Hama, said the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 

The initial Russian strikes hit Aleppo on Saturday, following an eight-year respite since 2016. 

Dr. Michael Reimer, professor of History at the Amerian University in Cairo, argues that the Assad-led government is very likely to stay in power as long as it enjoys “the determined support of Iran and Russia.”
 

Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham
 

It is worth noting that experts widely categorize Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham as an Islamist opposition armed group. 

The group's founder, Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, was part of a group in the Iraqi insurgency against US troops in Iraq. This group later came to call itself the Islamic State. 

Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham, formerly Jabhat Al-Nusra, went on to declare allegiance to Al-Qaeda. However, these ties were publicly broken in 2016. 

Reimer likened the situation in Syria to the 2014 Iraq when the Islamic State captured Mosul and posed a serious threat to the Iraqi government. 

“Fear of the establishment of such a radical regime galvanized forces inside and outside Iraq to coalesce,” argued Reimer. 

Eventually, this coalescence of forces allowed the Iraqi government to announce victory over the Islamic State on 9 December 2017.

The human cost of prolonged conflict
 

Nevertheless, human costs still mount over the course of these wars. 

The civil war in Syria has continued for more than a decade, since 2011, claiming the lives of over 500,000 people. It also left 16.7 million people needing aid and more than seven million internally displaced. 

On Monday, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said that the upsurge in violence had killed at least 44 civilians in Aleppo and Idlib and injured another 162, citing local health authorities. 

The OCHA added that as of 30 November, no less than 48,500 people have been displaced.

Reimer lamented that “civilians are always the people who suffer the most in these situations. And so many are already suffering so much in Gaza and Lebanon. Now more suffering for the Syrians.”

Reigniting civil war in Syria
 

A ceasefire deal was signed in December 2016, beginning the process of establishing three main areas of influence inside Syria. 

The process was completed by March 2020, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to partition the country into three major areas of influence. 

The control of the Syrian government headed by Al-Assad remained largely unchallenged in major cities, as under the 2020 deal the government controlled 65 percent of the country.

The second zone of influence, spanning roughly 25 percent, is controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

The third zone in northern and northwestern Syria is where Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham and other Turkish-backed factions held influence. 

Although there were skirmishes between these three zones, the lines separating them remained largely unchanged until the 26 November attack, which reignited the flame of civil war in the Arab country.