At dawn on 27 November, Syrian soldiers in Aleppo were securing the line separating them from the militant group the Al-Nusra Front after the cessation of the fighting that took place in the region in 2019.

They were surprised by an attack by militia forces using electric bicycles, which they were using so they would not be heard, with this taking place at the same time as an attack on Aleppo itself by sleeper cells using suicide drones against the Syrian Army command centres.

The Syrian army were forced to withdraw to regroup as the militia forces invaded the cities of Idlib and Aleppo and occupied surrounding villages.

According to the Syrian Ministry of Defence, “with the continued flow of terrorists across the northern borders and the intensification of military and technical support to them, terrorist organisations have been able to enter large parts of Aleppo.”

“However, they have not been able to concentrate their forces owing to powerful strikes against them as military reinforcements head to the area to halt the attacks.”

“Our armed forces fought ferocious engagements in areas spanning more than 100 km. They have now redeployed to bolster defence lines in order to absorb the attacks, save civilian and military lives, and prepare for a counterattack.”

The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces were tasked with defending installations such as airports and residential neighbourhoods.

The militia groups then headed east, putting further pressure on Aleppo, and south towards Hama and Homs, probably aiming to cut off the coast. There are important Russian naval bases on the coast in Syria, and should the militias reach Homs this will open the way to Qusayr and allow them control over the Syrian-Lebanese border.

Another aim is to take control of the air bases in northern Syria, including Abu Al-Dahur and Kuweiris, as well as military laboratories and research centres used to develop the Syrian Army’s missile capabilities.

Speaking in response to the militia movements, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad said that “terrorism understands only the language of force, and it will be broken and eliminated, regardless of its supporters and sponsors.”

“Terrorists do not represent the people but only the groups that support them.”

The Syrian Army counteroffensive began on Sunday to restore control over villages located north of Hama under the command of the 25th Special Division led by Brigadier General Suhail Al-Hassan with air support from Su-22 and Su-24 tactical bombers and Tushka tactical ballistic missiles.

The aim is to eliminate rebel command posts in Aleppo and join up with Russian Su-34 bombers that are engaged in the same operation.

Observers are asking why the attack on Aleppo occurred now and who directed it. Questions are being asked about the higher level of training and weaponry possessed by the militias compared to 2019.

According to historian Kamal Abdo, “whoever controls Aleppo controls half of Syria. The city has a strategic location as it serves as the first line of defence for neighbouring Anatolia.”

According to the anti-Syrian government website Levant24, the attacks were directed by the Command of Military Operations group, a successor to the Fathul Mubeen Operations Room that controls the Idlib region and has some 60,000 troops.

  A statement from the militias indicated that the attacks were led by Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, leader of the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group, which “retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from Al-Qaeda in 2017,” according to the US think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Turkish security sources told Reuters last Sunday that a Turkish-backed Syrian armed faction calling itself the Syrian National Army had prevented an attempt by Kurdish groups to establish a corridor linking the Tal Rifaat area to northeastern Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stated that Turkey is not involved in the conflict in Aleppo and has assured the Turkish public that he will take the necessary precautions against a potential wave of refugees from the area.

Analysing the overall strategy and the tactics used for the attacks, it is clear that the combat units were merging and integrating in a manner comparable to Western doctrine, allowing for the rapid updating of field information and action as a result of it.

The attack formations operated in this way at the start of the conflict. They were reinforced with scouting drones and used direct artillery fire from the rear on fixed positions, as well as transferring target coordinates for parallel attacks by suicide drones. 

The drones were used not just for reconnaissance and offensive purposes, but also to carry out air support missions to cover formations carrying mortar rounds.

The use of light formations is swift and unconventional, and even though they have limited firepower, they can cause losses and have adverse impacts on an opponent. Their use was sufficient to achieve the element of surprise and is similar to the type of innovative tactics used in the Ukrainian-Russian war.

According to the Ukrainian website Kyiv Post, “the rebel groups based in the Idlib region – which is said to include members of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) – had received operational training from special forces troops from the Khimik group of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR). The training team focused on tactics developed during the war in Ukraine, including on the use of drones.”

 It has been suggested that Ukrainian special forces are providing support to the militias, but there has been no independent verification of such involvement. The suggestion of Ukrainian involvement could be seen as part of a broader trend of Kyiv’s forces targeting Russian forces abroad.

The attacks came 10 days after Israel built its “alpha line,” a barrier intended to block any surprise attack from Syrian territory. While the Israeli forces were constructing it, they were penetrating Syrian territory with tanks and armoured vehicles, causing the UN to condemn the construction.

According to the US website Responsible Statecraft, “in recent months, the [UN Disengagement Observer Force] UNDOF has observed some construction activity being carried out by the Israeli Defence Force [IDF] along the ceasefire line. UNDOF has observed that, during the construction, in some instances, IDF personnel and Israeli excavators and other construction equipment, and the construction work encroach into the area of separation.”

An unstable situation continues in Syria, especially because of Russia’s distraction by the war in Ukraine and the current weak state of the Iranian militias supporting the regime in Damascus.

 The Syrian Army has spent the last ten years fighting rebel groups in the north of the country while also trying to strengthen its southern front against Israel.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly