Significant changes on all domestic, regional and international levels are a likely outcome.

First and foremost, the future of the Syrian people and their unity in one nation is a matter of prime concern. While a clear majority of Syrians have been celebrating the departure of now former Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, such joy is mixed with worry, if not fear, for their future, topped by their personal safety in an already fractured and decaying country following 14 years of Civil War.

More than 300,000 Syrians have already been killed, and nearly half the population was either displaced or forced to flee the country as refugees. The Syrian people can take no more bloodshed or human miseries.

Adding to the difficulty in predicting the future of Syria and its people is the complicated and diverse structure of the population. While the former regime claimed allegiance to a pan-Arab ideology under the banner of Al-Baath Party, the majority Sunni Syrians saw it as defending the interests of the Alawite Shiite minority to which the Al-Assad family belongs. When the popular revolt against the regime broke out in 2011, it was Shiite Iran and its ally Lebanon’s Hizbullah that came in to the rescue, deepening sectarian divisions in a country that also has influential Christian, Kurdish and Druze minorities.

The fact that the armed opposition groups that advanced at lightning speed towards the capital, Damascus, in only 11 days adopt a radical Sunni ideology is a key reason why many observers fear an outbreak of sectarian violence that could last for many years and turn Syria into yet another failed state and safe haven for all sorts of radical and terrorist organisations.

Even the most positive remarks by world leaders welcoming the departure of Bashar Al-Assad were coupled with appeals for unity among Syrians and references to the dire need to work on a consensual government that protects and preserves the interest of all Syrians, regardless of religion or sect. Egypt, which has historically enjoyed close relations with Syria, also appealed for unity and preserving the country’s institutions to prevent the downfall of the state.

Indeed, the leader of the armed groups that took control of Damascus, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, better known as Mohamed Al-Golani, has been trying to send positive messages, confirming he would respect the rights and freedoms of all minorities, but this remains to be seen once the initial wave of celebration comes to an end.

Moreover, the fall of Bashar Al-Assad will have several regional consequences, particularly in relation to key countries involved in the Syrian conflict over the past 14 years. Iran has obviously lost a key ally that was the backbone of the so-called “axis of resistance” Tehran led, and included Hizbullah in Lebanon, armed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. This will probably lead Iran to reconsider its policies, especially since the downfall of Al-Assad came shortly after the war that Israel led against Hizbullah in Lebanon weakened its capabilities.

There is no love lost between neighbouring Turkey, the country most involved in the Civil War since 2011, which turned into a refuge for millions of Syrians, and the Al-Assad regime. Ankara was among the first countries to welcome the news. Yet, it was important and a positively welcome development to hear top Turkish officials confirming they had no ambition to seize or control any of Syria’s territories, especially since, in practice, the country now has no army able to protect its internationally recognised borders.

Not surprisingly, Israel was the only country to move quickly to seize the moment and exploit the decay of the Syrian state and army by illegally seizing more Syrian territories while it carried out hundreds of air strikes against alleged military targets as soon as it was announced that the former Syrian president was granted refugee status in Russia. Israeli officials claimed they had to attack those targets to make sure strategic and chemical weapons do not fall into the hands of a new government whose direction and future policies they remained unsure of. Israel has been illegally occupying Syria’s Golan Heights since 1967.

If there is any hope for a new, functioning and united Syrian government to be formed, one of its immediate top priorities must be to confront such flagrant Israeli aggressions, insisting, with the backing of all Arab countries, that Israel must immediately withdraw from all Syrian territories it illegally occupied in recent days.

Finally, key international players, topped with the United States and Russia, also have important stakes in Syria. A few hundred US troops have been based in Syria for years, offering support to separatist Kurdish Syrian groups, and jointly fighting against terrorist groups such as IS and Al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, Russia has been the key backer of the former Syrian regime. Without direct Russian military support, the armed rebellion alone could have defeated the Al-Assad regime many years earlier, even with support from Iran and Hizbullah.

US President-elect Donald Trump, due to take office on 20 January, stated he believed the US had no interest to be involved in Syria. Russia, meanwhile, has been reportedly negotiating through Turkey the future, peaceful withdrawal of its troops from bases in Syria.

If the new US administration indeed decided there were no American interests at stake in Syria, and Russia retreated to concentrate mainly on its war in Ukraine, this would leave it up to the Syrian people, neighbouring countries and influential regional players to determine the future of the country. Be that as it may, whether the departure of Al-Assad will open up a new, hopeful chapter in the country’s future, or mark the beginning of another lengthy cycle of fighting and chaos in this historically influential Arab country remains to be seen.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly