Former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was overthrown in just 11 days. He escaped to Russia to obtain political asylum, and the rule of his family, in place since 1971, ended, leaving the fate of the Syrian people in the hands of armed factions with a terrorist history.

Last Sunday was a turning point in Syrian history that many Syrians rejoiced at, but they may be unaware that their homeland has now become something to be exploited by foreign powers for their own geopolitical and strategic gains.

On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said “as of now, Idlib, Hama, Homs, and of course Damascus. The march of the opposition continues. We called Al-Assad. We said, let’s determine the future of Syria together. We did not receive a positive response.”

According to Reuters, citing two sources, the Syrian armed opposition informed Turkey of its plans to launch an attack six months ago and felt it had received tacit Turkish approval.

Observers were shocked by the poor performance of the Syrian Army in what followed, which lacked morale and was unable to hold defensive positions. It carried out fragile counterattacks despite its numerical and armed superiority over the opposition factions, contrasting strongly with its performance in the 1973 and 1982 wars against Israel, when its performance was quite different.

With the fall of Al-Assad, Syria now faces a new reality as regional and international actors work through different factions to share and control its resources.

There are 16 locations of US forces in Syria, beginning in Al-Hasakah and the areas of Al-Shadadi, Al-Malikiya, and Tel Abyad and extending to nine locations in Deir ez-Zor, starting from Al-Bukamal south of the Iraqi border and extending northeast of the Euphrates River.

The US forces share three locations in Raqqa with the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Lafarge Company factory in the north. Air support for these forces is provided by F-15E aircraft flying from the Muwaffaq Badr Al-Salti Base in Jordan and A-10 ground support aircraft flying from the Al-Dhafra Base in the UAE.

The armed factions now in control of Syria have given Russian forces, present in two locations in Tartus, 14 locations in Latakia, and 12 locations in Quneitra near the Israeli border, 48 hours to evacuate.

By losing the port of Tartus in Syria, Russia now has limited regional options. The port of Tobruk in Libya is probably not equipped to support Russian naval forces as well as Tartus does, but it can be used because of the nearby Al-Adam-Gamal Abdel-Nasser/Tobruk Airbase, which could support Russian naval aviation.

The Tobruk Base could also be used to monitor NATO forces and the US Navy, which are based in Crete. Tobruk is also close to the Suez Canal and could be used to escort and protect Russian ships travelling to the Bosphorus, which is called the “Russian express.”

Given the two nations’close relationship, the port of Algiers could also accommodate the Russian naval fleet and offer logistical support. It has previously been visited by the Russian Navy during its Mediterranean drills. Port Sudan maybe a third option, and several attempts have already been made to establish a Russian naval base in Sudan.

However, this is unlikely to happen as it would restrict the Russian Navy’s presence to the Red Sea rather than the Mediterranean, requiring it to continuously pass through the Suez Canal and therefore be easily tracked.

Regarding the Syrian factions now in control of Syria, the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group combines the Haq Brigade, the Ansar Al-Din, the Nour Al-Din Al-Zenki, the Army of Sunnis, the Ansar Al-Tawhid, and the Jaish Al-Ezz, and its area of operations was Aleppo and south along the M-5 highway (Aleppo-Hama-Homs-Damascus).

The group did not have heavy equipment in its recent campaign but relied mainly on light vehicles, multiple and fast unconventional formations with light armaments, and three types ofdrones, combat drones, loitering ammunition drones called Shaheen, and FPVs, a slow suicide drone.

With the development of the military operations, the group was able to capture heavy equipment belonging to the Syrian Army, represented by tanks of various models such as the T-72M and the T-90M/a, Smerchrocket artillery, Pantsir and SAM-3 air-defence batteries, and Mstatowed artillery.

The National Syrian Army/Free Syrian Army combines many factions, such as the Ahrar Al-Sharqiya, the Army of the East, the Falcons of the Levant, the Mutasim Brigade, and the Sham Frontunder the leadership of the Construction and Liberation Movement, and Ahrar Al-Sham, the Levant Corps, the Free Idlib Army, the Sultan Suleiman Shah Brigade, the Army of the Free, and the Sultan Murad under the leadership of the National Liberation Front.

It attacked Syrian Army positions from the north, encircled Aleppo from the east, and took control of the M-4 highway to isolate western Syria from the east. These are forces that have training and armaments support from Turkey, shown in their use of Turkish Army armoured vehicles, assault rifles, and snipers.

The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, which combine the YPG popular defence units and the YPJ women’s protection units, besides the Jaish Al-Thowar consisting of factions such as the SandidForces, the Seljuq Brigade, the Burkan Al-Furat, the Ahrar Al-Zawya, the Sultan Selim, and the Brigade 99, are located in the north and east of Syriafrom Manbij to Aleppo, Raqqa, Hasakah, and Deir ez-Zor.

They consist of light troops fighting unconventionally and with air support from the US Air Force and a mixed arsenal of weapons including American, Soviet, Chinese, and Turkish, and previously captured equipment.

The command of the southern operation, a Sunni/Druze alliance including the Rijal Al-Karama Movement, the Sheikh Al-Karama factions, the Free Horan, and the Luwa Al-Jabal forces, reached an agreement with the Eighth Brigade in Daraa and took advantage of the state of confusion in the Syrian Army to attack positions very quickly and capture more tanks and artillery.

None of the armed factions have medium- and long-range air-defence systems, and this, together with the capture, disabling, or transfer to Turkey of Syria’s Buk, Tor, and Tunguska batteries, will facilitate the operations of foreign forces, such as the Turkish and Israeli Air Forces, in Syrian airspace. The Syrian Air Force squadrons that flew advanced fighter planes such as Mig-29 and Su-24 bombers have also been lost.

The Turkish Army broke through the northern border at Azaz and headed south to Aleppo with armoured personnel carriers, heavy artillery, and light air-defence units. The Turkish Air Force is carrying out direct attacks on the SDF in northern Hasakah and Raqqa.

Israeli operations aim to establish a buffer zone called the “Bravo Line” three to six km from the “Alpha Line” in the Quneitra Governorate.

There have been Israeli air strikes on Daraa, Quneitra, and Damascus, and the Mezzeh and Khalkhala Airports have been attacked and neutralised, as these contained elite Syrian fighting squadrons. Israel has also targeted ballistic missile research and development centres, weapons depots, command and control areas in Quneitra, and air defences.

Thus far, the Israeli ground advance has been focused on the strategic objective of controlling Mount Sheikh and Tel Al-Hara by the Unit 5101 (Shaldag), as these sites will improve the Israeli Army’s capabilities in surveillance, reconnaissance, and air defence, as well as military operations inthe rich agricultural lands in this area.

Israeli Major-General Noam Tibon stated to Israeli Army Radio that “Israel is very interested in establishing a Kurdish state in Syria.”

This means that Israel will attempt to maintain its presence in southern Syria through a faction that can be controlled in a similar manner to the Turkish model in northern Syria, with the US presence to the east through the Syrian Democratic Forces also predicting Syria’s entry into a dark tunnel of foreign control.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly