The issue of the day after in the Israeli war on Gaza is a point of contention that complicates talks about a ceasefire in the Strip.

The domestic fronts in Palestine, Israel, and the US seem to reflect divergent views, while Israel sees an opportunity to reach an agreement, especially with Egypt and Qatar’s efforts to seal a deal on Gaza and expected negotiations in Cairo to advance a hostage-exchange agreement.

This has come as Qatar has made an official announcement of its resuming its mediation, believing that the differences between Hamas and Israel are not insurmountable.

Observers note that following a US-brokered truce with Lebanon in the north, Israel has refocused its efforts on Gaza, seeking a similar arrangement based on concessions that both sides appear poised to make before US President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January and as military pressures persist.

Commentator Nidal Khadra told Al-Ahram Weekly that “Israel intensified its focus on Gaza following the Lebanon agreement, alongside its consistent military escalation, especially in northern Gaza, that is intended to weaken Hamas and push towards negotiations for the release of the over 100 hostages held by Hamas.”

“Thirty six of the hostages have reportedly died due to repeated Israeli air strikes, while 154 have been repatriated to Israel,” Khadra said.

Ayman Al-Raqab, a professor at Al-Quds University in Jerusalem, said that the Lebanese-Israeli agreement may encourage a similar deal on Gaza, despite Israeli military leaders asserting their desire to retrieve the detainees through military operations.

These efforts, spanning 15 months and involving advanced US and British surveillance technology, as well as NATO-led operations, have failed thus far.

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently signalled an openness to a ceasefire in Gaza, suggesting that conditions have become more favourable for a potential hostage-exchange deal,” Al-Raqab said.

However, he added, “the detainees are unlikely to be released without a political framework,” noting that otherwise Israel’s moves would be futile and counterproductive.

According to senior US officials, any agreement will likely not materialise until the change in the US administration and Israel’s current actions complicate matters even as Hamas appears more willing to make concessions to end the conflict.

Al-Raqab noted that the complexity stems from the abandonment of the earlier Biden-brokered plan by both the US and Israel, despite Hamas’ repeated affirmations of its approval.

Cairo is diligently working with the US, Qatar, and Turkey to broker a ceasefire and finalise a hostage-exchange deal. The agreement is anticipated to be transitional, including the release of Israeli detainees, particularly women, children, and the elderly, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. It would facilitate the increased entry of food trucks into Gaza and grant Gazans freedom of movement for 50 days.

According to Khadra, Egypt’s efforts, especially on a deal for the administrative management of Gaza, have brought a truce closer than ever. They have been bolstered by reports in the US media pointing to the possibility of Israel dispatching a security delegation to Cairo to further discuss the agreement’s details, as Hamas seems more willing to negotiate and potentially offer concessions to halt the war.

“There is no agreement with Israel on the political structure of the day after in Gaza. The current structure is influenced by Israeli designs. It would be possible to attain a ceasefire if Hamas agreed that Israel maintains control over the axis it had earlier determined, including the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, as well as buffer zones in northern Gaza in Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun and along the eastern border strip,” Khadra said.

Commentator Mohsen Abu Ramadan told the Weekly that Trump, who re-enters the Oval Office on 20 January, is seeking to halt the war on Gaza as part of his campaign promises to the Arab-American community that supported him in the US presidential elections, particularly given his criticism of Biden for allegedly fuelling wars and weakening the US economy.

In his talks with Netanyahu, Trump has focused on securing the release of Israeli and US detainees held by the Palestinian resistance, without expressing a clear view on managing the Strip or the day after sealing a truce, reportedly set to last 42 days and include a prisoner-exchange, Abu Ramadan said.

He warned of the danger of the continued presence of Israeli forces in Gaza during the ceasefire period.

Trump has not issued any statements opposing the Israeli Occupation’s presence in the Gaza Strip, the dismantling of the Netzarim settlement, the displacement of the Palestinians, or the prospect of the return of Israeli settlements to northern Gaza.

“The outgoing Biden administration issued statements opposing the continuation of the occupation and settlement expansion, but these declarations were largely symbolic and did not put pressure on Netanyahu’s government. They served primarily to appease global public opinion,” Abu Ramadan said.

He suggested that Trump will stop the war but will also align with the agendas of Israel’s far-right government. Trump could support the annexation and Judaisation of the West Bank and potentially agree to Israel annexing parts of Gaza, including facilitating the return of settlements to its northern regions, he said.

Egypt has played a pivotal role in advancing the truce and prisoner-exchange deal, particularly in reconciling the perspectives of the Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas on forming a community support committee that could stand in the way of Netanyahu’s day-after vision that aims to establish a civil administration subservient to the occupying state that would be reminiscent of a “village league,” Abu Ramadan said.

Egypt is working on a gradual withdrawal mechanism for the Occupation forces from Gaza, he noted.

“Trump’s stance on Gaza’s future remains unclear and will likely become evident during the truce and exchange negotiations. There is cautious optimism about the likelihood of a truce and exchange deal, but uncertainties about the Strip’s day-after remain.

During his first term as president, Trump was very generous to Netanyahu and the Occupation government and gave in to all its demands at the expense of the Palestinian people and their rights,” Abu Ramadan added.

He sees some potential leverage in the Saudi initiative that links normalisation with Israel with the establishment of a Palestinian state as a way to influence Trump’s approach through his interest-driven mindset.

Tamara Haddad, a political researcher, said Israel has escalated its genocidal policy and atrocities in Gaza, including by widespread bombings in Beit Lahia, the northern Strip, and camps in Al-Mawasi, Khan Younis, and Rafah, alongside deliberate starvation policies.

These acts appear to be intended to pressure Hamas to release the hostages as part of the ceasefire negotiation process, she said.

Haddad argued that Qatar’s renewed mediation efforts and pressing regional developments, especially in Syria, which may steal the limelight from Gaza, enhance the likelihood of achieving a truce.

Israel may shift the focus to implement its agenda in Syria, which means that pushing for a deal on Gaza has become more pressing than ever before international concern with the Palestinian cause wanes, she concluded.