On 10 February 2018, a formation of eight Israeli F-16 Sufa aircraft attacked the Tiyas T-4 Airbase in Syria in response to the launch of a suicide drone against the Israeli side.
The Israeli attack on the airbase forced its airdefence batteries to repel the attack not only by thwarting the Israeli missiles, but also by targeting the Israeli aircraft themselves with long-range SA-5 systems, resulting in a direct hit to one of the aircraft, which fell inside the Israeli borders.
This incident was a turning point in the Israeli-Syrian conflict because it alerted the Israelis to the dangers that Syrian Air Defencescould pose in the event of any future offensive scenario against Iran, not only because of their ability to provide early warning of any Israeli formations heading northeast, but also because long-range systems could target them in its airspace.
Undoubtedly, Syrian Air Defences suffered damage throughout the country’s Civil War, and their capabilities were depleted by rebel groups that targeted airdefence battalions or long-range radars, specifically in the southern, eastern, and northern sectors. This would have weakened the early warning network and exposed gaps that could be exploited to penetrate air defences.
During the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) increased its monthly attacks to directly target Syrian Air Defences or skirmish with them, depleting their ammunition and knowing that any destroyed batteries or missiles would be difficult to compensate for due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine.
On 8 December this year, Israeli forces carried out a limited military operation into Syrian territory under the name Bashan Arrow, the Hebrew name for the Druze Mountain in southern Syria.
The recent events in Syria have provided an excellent opportunity for the IAF not only to destroy Syria’s military capabilities, particularly the airdefenceforces which have been built up over two decades and were capable of inflicting significant losses on the Israeli Army in any combat scenario, but also to neutralise the expertise of Syrian crews.
According to a military source speaking to the Israeli newspaper the Times of Israel, “the IAF destroyed 86 per cent of the former Al-Assad regime’s airdefence systems across Syria, totalling 107 separate air defence components and another 47 radars.”
The numbers include 80 per cent of the short-to medium-range SA-22 system, also known as the Pantsir-S1, and 90 per cent of the Russian SA-17 medium-range system, also known as the Buk.
In addition to the airdefence systems, the Israeli strikes also destroyed hundreds of Syrian missiles and related systems and 27 fighter jets.
For two decades, Syria’s rules of engagement have been limited to relying on medium- and short-range systems to counter Israeli air attacks, making them effective most of the time in intercepting Israeli munitions rather than launching aircraft. In rare cases, long-range S-200 airdefence systems have been used. The limited responses could have been due to Russian political pressure regarding agreements with Israel.
The Syrian Air Force generally did not engage with the IAF, instead relying on armed combat patrols of MiG-29 aircraft inside Syrian airspace to secure airdefence battalions and deter Israeli aviation.
Despite this, the Syrian Air Defences and Air Force were major challenges to the Israelis.
In its campaigns in Syria after 8 December, the IAF has announced that “after over a decade of evading air defences over the skies of Syria during a campaign against Iran’s supply of weapons to Hizbullah, it has achieved total air superiority in the area.”
This air superiority over Syria could enable safer passage for IAF aircraft to carry out strikes on Iran, military officials concluded.
The destruction of the air defences and the Syrian Air Force has meant Israeli air supremacy on the battlefield. As of this writing, 480 air attacks have been carried out, including 350 by tactical fighter jets and 130 by attack drones, against 320 strategic targets. Some1,800 different munitions have been employed.
The attacks were conducted using two mission patterns.
The first consisted of preemptive attacks on the Israeli ground forces’ axis of advancement before ground operations begin, as a deterrence to Syrian rebelorganisations in these locations, forcing them to retreat and redeploy themselves.
The second consisted of the direct targeting of the Syrian Army’s military capabilities, which include airdefence command and control centres, as well as armoured and motorised infantry units.
Military aviation bases and planes have been targeted, along withballistic missile and chemical weapons research centres and intelligence and electronic warfare centres. Seaports with naval components and surface-to-surface missiles have been targeted with the Israeli Navy’s Saar-4.5 missiles and Green Dragon suicide drones.
With the fall of the Syrian regime, Russia has lost its valuable position in the eastern Mediterranean, necessitating the urgent need for an alternative, and Iran has lost its first line of defence.
In Israel’s two previous attacks on Iran, Israeli air formations were divided between two separate attacks on the Syrian Air Defencesin the south prior to the attack on Iran, but now any attackscan be entirely focused on Iran.
According to Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian, “the Israeli Air Force is continuing its readiness and preparations for potential strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, following the weakening of Tehran’s proxy groups in the Middle East and the fall of the Al-Assad regime in Syria.”
Due to the dramatic changes in the Middle East, especially the fall of the Al-Assad regime which has allowed the IAF to take out the vast majority of Syria’s air defences, the Israeli military now believes there is an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.
In a recent Israeli attack, Iran lost most of its valuable S-300 airdefence batteries, as well as one of its long-range early warning radars, which limits its ability to repel the air-launched ballistic missiles used by Israeli fighter jets.
With a lack of good radar coverage, this will allow the F-35s to penetrate further to destroy and neutralisedefences in Iran and give the formations of bombers sufficient space to penetrate deeper to hit highly sensitive and important sites in Iran.
Iran is currently pursuing a long-term policy of self-restraint in order to expedite obtaining the cover of nuclear deterrence, and it has expressed its consent to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection of its nuclear facilities, despite the country’s internal divisions caused by the dissatisfaction of some Revolutionary Guards who have abandoned the Syrian Army and Hizbullah.
On Wednesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the collapse of theAl-Assad regime in Syria “will not weaken Iran.” He said he believed that the fall of the Al-Assad regime was planned by the US and Israel, and “we have proof of this,” he said.
This raises questions in the event that there is another attempt to undermine or eliminate Iran’s military capabilities. US President-elect Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of a war against Iran during his second term in office, saying in a recent interview that “anything can happen.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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