We are witnessing the prelude to a more complex and perilous chapter in the Middle East's history. Pervasive uncertainty engulfs the region. Its states and people face existential threats. Over recent months, crippling blows to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have culminated in the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.
The fall of that regime dealt a devastating blow to Iran and the so-called axis of resistance against Israel. Iran's strategy of encircling Israel with fire rings using proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq seems to have faltered. This strategy has significantly harmed the Palestinian cause and the region's stability and security.
Iran and its regional proxies' setbacks have diminished the influence of the "Shia Crescent." Hamas is no longer as strong and credible as it used to be in the wake of the 7 October attacks. Hezbollah's political and military clout dwindled, especially after Hassan Nasrallah's assassination. Moreover, Syria, so essential to Iran's regional strategy and a corridor for arms transfers to Hezbollah, can no longer accommodate Iranian influence after Assad's downfall. Reports suggest that Iran invested $30 to $40 billion to sustain its ambitions in Syria over the past 13 years. Iran's regional strategy and image have been shattered. And Israel's penetration of its security and military is increasingly apparent.
The ongoing regional upheaval will unlikely stop at the borders of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Israel appears poised to undermine Iran's nuclear program and will take it up with President Trump after he returns to the White House in January. Following its strikes in October on Iranian air defences, Revolutionary Guard bases, and missile production facilities—including the Farshin military complex — Israel will attempt to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. This requires advanced weaponry, coordination with the United States, and collaboration with key regional actors. The confrontation with Iran may even potentially seek to overthrow its regime.
In Syria, whose future remains uncertain, many challenges lie ahead. Israel has reportedly destroyed 70–80 percent of Syria's strategic military capabilities and seized control of the buffer zone established under the 1974 disengagement agreement. Furthermore, Israeli military vehicles continue to pour into Syrian territory in blatant violation of international agreements. Turkey, on the other hand, has significantly benefitted from Assad's fall. Yet, the fractious ideological and ethnic backgrounds of the factions that toppled Assad pose serious risks, most importantly replacing Iranian Shia dominance with an extremist Sunni Salafi jihadist regime.
Assad's downfall should, however, not embolden non-Arab regional actors to carve up Syrian territory or treat Syria as a defenceless prize to be exploited.
The country requires an inclusive, purely Syrian political process to achieve a transition according to UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which ensures the reconstruction of state institutions, preserving territorial integrity, and restoring national unity, independence, and sovereignty. Only then can Syria achieve lasting security, stability, and a future that fulfils its people's aspirations.
* The writer is a senator and former assistant to the foreign minister
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