Over the last three years, Russia has resisted 2,200 sanctions imposed by the United States and the European powers since February 2022 after Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border.

Not only has the sanctions strategy failed to change the course of the war in Ukraine, what the Russian government has described as a “Special Military Operation” and the US-led West a “war of aggression,” but it has also not led to the collapse of the Russian economy or diminished the military capacities and resources of the Russian military, at least not yet.

The US-led West has followed an anti-Russian strategy since February 2022 and has attempted, unsuccessfully, to mobilise other countries around the world to support it.

The NATO Summit meeting hosted by the US administration in Washington DC in July said that Russia “remains the most significant and direct threat to security,” meaning Western and European security, in its final declaration. The summit earmarked $43.3 billion in aid and military assistance to Ukraine in 2025, including F-16 fighter jets and air-defence support.

Three months later, and after former US president Donald Trump won a second term in office to become the 47th president in January next year, US President Joe Biden gave the green light to Ukraine to attack deep inside Russia using US-made medium-range missiles.

However, neither the sanctions nor the gradual escalation of the war on the part of Ukraine have diminished the military, economic, financial, and industrial capacities of Russia to continue advancing militarily on the ground.

This has been a gradual escalation, the sole purpose of which has been to deny Russia a military victory in Ukraine. Judging from the slow and steady advance of Russian troops inside Ukraine, this strategy has not been effective. However, the West has not shown any willingness to change course and start dealing with Russia as a great power once again whose security interests should be taken into consideration in the larger framework of European security.

The reasons why Russia is still capable of pursuing its war aims in Ukraine are varied. The first has to do with the fact that Russia was prepared to deal with the sanctions scenario, since it was well aware of the Western playbook of sanctioning anyone who refuses or challenges its global outlook and strategy, what the West has called the “rules-based international order.”

This concept has been challenged by Russia and China as well as by the Global South.

The second reason relates to popular support for Russia’s war aims. The perceived threat of the NATO expansion to Russia’s borders is shared by the majority of Russians, not all of whom are necessarily supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Indo-Pacific strategy of the Biden administration and NATO’s insistence that European security is linked to security in the Asia-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific regions have provided Russian diplomacy with enough arguments for both China and North Korea to deepen their alliances with Russia.

In February 2022, a few days before Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border, China and Russia agreed on an “alliance without limits.” Last June, Putin paid an official visit to North Korea, where he signed a Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with North Korean leader Kim Yong Un.

As a result of this unprecedented treaty, North Korea has deployed between 10,000 and 12,000 troops in Russia’s Kursk region, occupied by Ukrainian forces since early summer which are now retreating. Furthermore, China, according to the US administration, has been providing Russia with valuable help in military related industries.

When Biden announced his approval of Ukraine being able to use US-supplied medium- range ATACM (Army Tactical Missiles System) missiles to attack deep into Russia, Putin commented that Russia had now changed its nuclear doctrine. Henceforward, Russia would consider any “aggression” by a non-nuclear power assisted by a nuclear power to be a joint aggression by the two parties, he said.

 Kremlin Spokesman Dimitri Peskov later clarified that nuclear deterrence aims at convincing a possible “adversary” that a “retaliation” should be expected if an “aggression” is waged against Russia or its allies. I believe that when he said allies he meant China and North Korea.

European security cannot possibly be decoupled from the security of Russia. In the past, there were European leaders who believed that cooperating with Russia on security questions would serve European interests, and the last three years have proven them to be right.

The re-election of former president Trump to a second term in office could provide a much-needed opening for Europe and NATO to start a de-escalation process with Russia, not only in Ukraine but also on other security questions related to Europe.

The writer is former assistant foreign minister.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly