By the end of 2024, Sudan will have endured over 624 days, or more than 20 months, of war. The devastation has left the nation ruined, with countless lives lost or irreparably shattered, the dignity of the Sudanese people violated, and widespread destruction and displacement.

Sudan has been plunged into a dark and seemingly endless tunnel, with no discernible light in sight. The prospect of achieving a peaceful resolution remains elusive as the warring factions cling to zero-sum positions, while efforts at the international, regional, and local levels to broker peace have repeatedly failed.

The conflict in Sudan has escalated with the expansion of its geographic reach and new parties joining the battlefield. It has devolved into a protracted war characterised by atrocities, gross violations of human rights, and horrific massacres. The conflict has resulted in humanitarian, political, economic, societal, and security-related crises, while sowing seeds of self-destruction that threaten the fabric of Sudan’s very existence.

The ramifications of this war have transcended Sudan’s borders, spilling over into neighbouring countries, igniting tensions along borders and fuelling regional struggles. There is growing concern that the flames of war could escalate further, potentially igniting a regional conflict or precipitating unwelcome international interventions.

HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE

On the humanitarian front, the situation in Sudan has deteriorated alarmingly all through 2024, due to the relentless war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict has precipitated a severe and widespread shortage of essential goods and services, pushing millions to the brink of famine.

The humanitarian toll is staggering: according to Genocide Watch and the International Rescue Committee, the war has claimed over 150,000 lives and displaced more than 14 million people both internally and as refugees living under dire circumstances. The figures have rendered Sudan the world’s largest displacement crisis.

According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), Sudan now accounts for one in eight internally displaced persons (IDPs) globally, and the needs of those populations are immense, encompassing severe shortages in food, shelter, healthcare, and sanitation, which heighten their vulnerability to diseases, malnutrition, and violence.

This is in addition to the enormous number of civilian casualties, arbitrary detentions, disappearances, forced recruitment, rape, systematic killings, and collective punishment. The deliberate denial of safe passage and the use of food as a weapon of war have made it impossible to deliver humanitarian aid to millions of people struggling to stay alive.

The crisis is further exacerbated by rising hunger and famine across the country, with diseases such as cholera claiming an increasing number of lives. United Nations reports have stated that 25 million Sudanese urgently require humanitarian assistance, including 14 million children facing severe food insecurity. Moreover, 37 per cent of the population, or 17.7 million people, are at risk of acute hunger.

International organisations have issued grave warnings of the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Sudan, cautioning that the worst may still lie ahead. They urgently called for global action to help Sudan, warning that the continuing conflict exacerbates the suffering of the Sudanese people and poses severe risks to humanitarian workers, and that Sudan has become one of the most perilous places in the world for aid operations.

Harrowing reports reveal that some populations in Sudan have been forced to subsist on tree leaves due to lack of food, with dire predictions that, without intervention, widespread starvation — particularly among children — will claim countless lives. This humanitarian disaster has been compounded by recent floods and an unrelenting cold wave.

Despite the magnitude of the crisis, international responses have been inadequate. Only 26 per cent of the more than $2 billion required for humanitarian aid has been secured as global officials claim their attention is divided by concurrent challenges in other regions afflicted with wars and natural disasters.

POLITICAL RIFTS

On the political front, divisions and polarisations within the warring factions have deepened. The protracted war has given rise to new fractures, within the camp advocating for continued conflict until the opposing side is subdued, within the factions urging a cessation of hostilities, within the SAF, and within the RSF.

Sudanese civilian forces were unable to bridge their differences despite the numerous conferences and international meetings they held, such as the summit Egypt hosted in July. A second round of discussions, anticipated soon, is expected to renew efforts to foster unity among Sudanese civilian groups.

During its latest meeting in Entebbe, Uganda, chaired by former premier Abdullah Hamdok, the Civil Democratic Forces Alliance (Taqaddom) called for the establishment of a government in exile to delegitimise the de facto authority currently based in Port Sudan, which has been positioned as an alternative capital. The proposal sparked controversy and divisions within the opposition alliance. The National Umma Party, a member of the alliance, warned that such a move could lead to dividing Sudan. As a result, Taqaddom decided to put the proposal up for study and deliberation.

ECONOMIC DISINTEGRATION

Sudan faced catastrophic economic conditions throughout 2024. The conflict has devastated production capacities, disrupted services, and hindered economic growth, driving inflation rates above a staggering 450 per cent. The war’s impact has profoundly affected the livelihoods of most Sudanese families, stripping them of their sources of income and exacerbating poverty.

The agricultural, industrial and trade sectors have been decimated, with some estimates indicating an over 85 per cent reduction in state revenues. Consequently, poverty rates have surged to over 90 per cent as countless workers and employees lost jobs and wages. Losses are estimated to surpass $200 billion, while exports have plummeted by more than 60 per cent, and the local currency has depreciated by 56 per cent.

In November the Central Bank of Sudan announced issuing new banknotes, purportedly to safeguard the national currency, stabilise exchange rate fluctuations in the parallel market, and address the proliferation of counterfeit and non-compliant currencies that spread following the onset of the war.

The move ignited fierce opposition from the RSF, which perceived it as a precursor to a broader plan aimed at dividing Sudan, leading to the accusation that the Port Sudan-based authority is using issuing new currency to offset revenue deficits and finance the war. The RSF called on the Sudanese to reject the decision, abstain from depositing their funds, and refrain from transacting with the new banknotes, asserting that the move lacked legal justification and was driven by political motives.

SOCIAL FRAGMENTATION

One of the gravest consequences of the war in Sudan has been the fragmentation of its social fabric. The conflict has fostered divisions and alignments along regional, ethnic, tribal, partisan, and ideological lines, sowing the seeds of discord. These pose a dire threat to peaceful coexistence. Both sides of the conflict have propagated hate speech and demonisation of the other, targeting specific tribal, regional or partisan groups. This has fuelled an escalation of racist sentiments and animosities, which will be difficult to mend even if the war comes to an end.

The unity and future of Sudan are threatened, as the climate of division and polarisation stokes hatred and exacerbates the conflict. The violence, seeing unprecedented levels of brutality, reflects an unparalleled crisis that surpasses any in Sudan’s turbulent history of civil wars.

Despite these dire circumstances, 2024 also saw remarkable manifestations of solidarity and communal cooperation in Sudan. Charitable kitchens emerged as beacons of hope across the country, providing sustenance to vast numbers of stranded and unsupported Sudanese. These efforts, spearheaded by volunteers and youth groups, involved collective cooking and the distribution of meals to those in need, reviving Sudan’s rich heritage of solidarity and cooperation that has long defined its traditions in moments of both joy and sorrow.

THE MILITARY LANDSCAPE

On the security and military front, more than 20 months of relentless conflict and devastation have shown the improbability of a decisive military resolution in Sudan. The escalation persists, with continued military build-up and the unchecked flow of arms. Despite some SAF advances in regions like Sennar and Khartoum, the RSF still retains control over vast swathes of the country.

The conflict, now at its zenith, has spared neither places of worship, educational institutions, nor critical infrastructure. As the SAF and RSF continue to blame each other for perpetuating the war, fears are mounting that the conflict will lead to either a full-scale civil war or a complete collapse of the state. Such an outcome could position Sudan as a hub for extremist or criminal organisations.

In October, Abu Aqla Kikil, the RSF commander in Al-Jazeera State, defected to join the SAF, triggering widespread controversy. This was followed by a series of massacres in Al-Jazeera State, attributed to the RSF as acts of revenge against the local residents who had welcomed Kikil’s decision. The RSF, however, denied the accusations, attributing the atrocities to “outlaws”.

The SAF insists it can end the war militarily within a short timeframe, rejecting any negotiations with the RSF unless the latter surrenders unconditionally. On the other hand, the RSF announced in October the suspension of negotiations with the SAF, citing the attack aimed at reclaiming control of Khartoum.

MEDIA CASUALTIES

The media and journalism sector in Sudan faced unprecedented challenges in 2024. Media institutions were shut down or destroyed. The complete cessation of print newspapers due to the war resulted in 90 per cent of Sudanese journalists losing their jobs. Many were forced to flee to neighbouring countries, with some resorting to alternative professions or launching resource-strapped websites to sustain their work.

Journalists were subjected to escalating levels of persecution, including imprisonment, physical attacks, and severe restrictions imposed by both parties to the conflict. The Sudanese Journalists Syndicate reported the deaths of 13 journalists, including two women, and documented 11 instances of physical assault, three of which involved female journalists. Additionally, there was one case of sexual assault and numerous incidents of violence, including gunfire, shelling, kidnappings, and forced detentions. Sixty cases of kidnapping and forced detention were reported, involving nine female journalists, along with 58 instances of personal threats, 27 cases of physical assault, and looting of property, including of three women.

Moreover, the parties to the conflict manipulated media outlets, using them to serve as their mouthpieces to sustain the destructive war.

EXTERNAL EFFORTS

The Sudan war has created a ripple of tensions in neighbouring countries, whose own stability and security have been adversely impacted. Calls for international intervention to protect civilians and halt the flow of weapons into Sudan have grown louder. However, regional and international responses have fallen short of expectations. Tangible actions to address the conflict remain lacking.

Numerous initiatives have yielded no significant progress, whether they be efforts in Jeddah, Geneva, and IGAD or efforts spearheaded by the African Union and neighbouring states. While certain countries and organisations have imposed sanctions on individuals or entities involved in the conflict, these measures have been undermined by geopolitical rivalries. For instance, Russia exercised its veto power to block a United Nations draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan.

This international and regional paralysis can largely be attributed to competing global interests in Sudan, the region, and Africa, as well as the inadequacies of existing initiatives. These shortcomings include the absence of effective pressure mechanisms, insufficient enforcement to monitor ceasefires, and a lack of robust frameworks to separate the warring parties and guide Sudan towards a sustainable political process.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Sudan stands at a critical juncture. The future offers two starkly contrasting paths. The country may continue to descend into chaos and war, which threatens to obliterate its social fabric, devastate its economy, and compromise the future of its people. Alternatively, there remains hope for the Sudanese parties to recognise the futility of war and embrace a genuine will for peace. Whether through internal realisation or under combined pressure from domestic, regional and international actors, Sudan can chart a course towards reconciliation.

The solution must go beyond superficial agreements, embracing a fair, comprehensive, and inclusive settlement that addresses the root causes of the conflict instead. A genuine peace process must pave the way to a safe transitional phase, setting a precedent to ensure that this war becomes the last in Sudan’s history.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly