Attempts to get negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) back on track and reach a legally binding agreement — or stop the filling of the dam until an agreement is reached — have all failed. 

As Egypt continued to seek a peaceful solution to the GERD file and a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam, Ethiopia went ahead with a fifth filling in defiance of international law and previously signed agreements, declaring in October that the process had been completed.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described the dam as a “significant opportunity” for Sudan and Egypt and insisted it will not harm downstream countries despite the absence of credible studies on the dam’s safety and its economic, social and environmental impacts on neighbouring countries.

Egypt’s approach to the GERD dispute remains within chapter 6 of the UN Charter which calls for “pacific settlement of disputes”, the framework of international law, the tripartite Declaration of Principles (DoP) signed in Khartoum in 2015, and the Mubarak-Zenawi agreement in 1993 which states that Ethiopia should seek Egypt’s approval before undertaking any projects on the Nile, explained Salah Halima, a former deputy to Egypt’s foreign minister.

“But if this approach fails, Egypt will have to highlight to the United Nations Security Council [UNSC] that the failure to resolve the GERD file poses a threat to peace, and ask the UN to act under Chapter 7 which outlines action in response to threats to peace, including the right to self-defence embedded in Article 51,” he told Al-Ahram Weekly.

“The fact that Egypt has managed to ease the harm caused by the dam by resorting to water stored in the High Dam and other water saving projects does not mean that there is no harm, as Addis Ababa claims,” Halima added. 

In September, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty sent a letter to the UNSC expressing Egypt’s rejection of Ethiopia’s unilateral fifth phase filling of the dam’s reservoir and underlining how it violates international law and the DoP.

Halima does not rule out the possibility of mediation of the sort that led to the Washington talks in 2019-20. The talks resulted in an agreement that Egypt signed. The Ethiopian delegation boycotted the signing session. Now that Donald Trump is returning to the White House, there may be a breakthrough in the GERD file that builds on the earlier talks.

Abbas Sharaki, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, agrees with Halima that the High Dam, combined with other water projects, helped Egypt get through the difficult years of filling the dam. Egypt has expanded the extraction of groundwater, wastewater reuse, and wastewater treatment. Two years ago it opened the Bahr Al-Baqar wastewater treatment plant in Sinai, one of the largest wastewater treatment plants in the world, and plans are underway to build a string of desalination plants. It also embarked on the National Canal Lining Project. 

“These projects cost the country more than LE50 billion. Their goal was to manage water until the political track sees a breakthrough,” Sharaki told the Weekly.

Ethiopia claims the dam, intended to generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling Ethiopia’s electricity output, is essential for the country’s development.

As Sharaki explained, in mid-December the dam turbines were back in operation after a pause of about 100 days during which Blue Nile water kept flowing through the dam’s upper flood gates. The flow of water from the Blue Nile is currently about 50 million cubic metres (mcm) a day, enough to operate two turbines for 12 hours. If they operate for more time, they will draw from the dam’s stored water, which has been stable at 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) since 5 September, the end of the flooding season.

Given that the turbines installed this year only operated briefly in August and have stopped ever since, it remains to be seen whether they can function over a longer period to generate the electricity that Ethiopia claims is the dam’s purpose. 

Earlier this month, Ethiopia opened another flood gate which will allow 100 to 150 mcm of water to pass through daily, leading Sharaki to question whether there is a problem in operating the turbines. 

Currently, only four of the planned 13 turbines have been installed, two in August this year and two in 2022. In August, Ethiopia’s prime minister announced that three more turbines would be installed in December, but as yet there are no signs that the turbines have arrived. Unconfirmed media reports suggest they are still in China and that shipping to Ethiopia has been delayed for logistical reasons. 

“The opening of another flood gate indicates the turbines are unlikely to be operating any time soon. If they do not start functioning by April or May next year, then two or three more flood gates will need to be opened to release around 20 bcm of stored water to make room for the flow from the rainy season which starts mid-July,” explained Sharaki.

That the turbines have yet to operate on a regular basis may be a result of technical hiccups, financial reasons, or because there is no electricity network to distribute power generated by the dam.

“Is there a network ready? Can it distribute the electricity to different regions? Will Addis Ababa consider exporting it?” None of this is clear, said Sharaki.

If the turbines do operate regularly, they will allow some 200 mcm to pass each day, meaning the 19 bcm that Addis Ababa stored this year will eventually arrive to Egypt.

“The 19 bcm of water stored during the fifth filling will arrive to Sudan and Egypt gradually until the flooding if the turbines do not operate, and from April to June if they operate,” explained Sharaki.

Though Ethiopia’s above-average rainfall in recent years has worked in Egypt’s interest, Sharaki stressed that a breakthrough on the political track is still urgently needed. 

“We have to reach a political agreement, especially if Addis Ababa plans to build other dams. There must be an agreement on the filling and operation before any building starts,” he said.

Over the past five years, Addis Ababa has unilaterally completed five phases of filling the dam. More than a decade of tripartite negotiations, during which Egypt and Sudan have sought a legally binding agreement governing the filling and operating of GERD that guarantees water security and the safety of their own dams, have failed to result in an agreement.

In December 2023, Cairo announced the end of GERD negotiations due to Ethiopia’s rejection of all the proposed technical and legal solutions.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly