Within days of the fall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria, the international community let those who seized power in Damascus know its conditions for recognising the new government, lifting sanctions, removing the terrorist designation from the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group, and allow reconstruction and aid money back into the country to help to rebuild the country.

Turkey was the first to come forward to recognise the new leaders. Only four days after Al-Assad left the country, Turkish intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin arrived in Damascus where Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, accompanied him to the Umayyad Mosque, which brims with sociopolitical and religious symbolism for the Syrian people.

Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan Hakan followed soon afterwards to have tea with Al-Sharaa atop Mount Qasioun and look down on Damascus with a triumphant gaze.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan boasted how closely Ankara will be working with the Al-Sharaa administration to restore security, eradicate terrorism, and build a modern state. The messages from the visits and statements are clear: the alliance between Turkey and Syria will be strong and strategic, a complete reversal from the fraught and hostile relationship that prevailed between these two neighbouring countries for the past 13 years.

The joint efforts would align completely with the aspirations of the Syrian people and their new political administration.

Envoys from France, Germany, and Britain also raced to Damascus to meet Al-Sharaa and officials in the Syrian Interim Authority. France even reopened its embassy in Damascus.

Before proceeding further, however, the European capitals awaited the cue from Washington, which was swiftly forthcoming. The Syrian people have “a rare opportunity to rebuild and reshape their country,” said Barbara Leaf, US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, in a press briefing on 20 December following a brief visit to Damascus during which she met Al-Sharaa and other members of the interim authority.

The US “welcomed the positive messages” put out by Al-Sharaa and “will be looking for progress on these principles in actions, not just words,” Leaf said. She also announced that the US has dropped the $10 million reward for the arrest of Al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohamed Al-Golani, which had been in effect for many years.

Higher-level European visits then followed, with the French foreign minister and his German counterpart meeting with Al-Sharaa to convey their support if the interim authority adheres to what Leaf called “the set of principles agreed upon by the US and our regional partners.”

Some countries took more active steps to develop relations with Damascus. One of these was Ukraine, which sent its foreign minister to Damascus to “open a new chapter in bilateral relations with Syria.” Affirming Ukraine’s full support for the new administration, the minister underscored Ukraine’s and the new Syrian leadership’s shared animosity towards Russia.

The “principles,” or more accurately conditions, the West has laid out for Damascus can be condensed into two: inclusiveness and an end to sectarianism.

The entire spectrum of Syrian society, including ethnic and religious minorities, must be genuinely represented in the processes shaping the transitional phase in the country, and Jihadist and other terrorist groups must not be allowed to resurge or participate in government.

The latter condition is to ensure that Syria does not become a threat to the regional environment and international peace and security.

These two conditions are also Syrian principles as they were voiced in the statements issued by the Syrian parties following the fall of the Al-Assad regime and welcoming the new administration. Even the most ardent HTS supporters expressed their confidence that it would observe these principles in all the decisions it takes.

Although the international community appears more pragmatic, emphasising the need to see actions and not just words, there is clearly a Syrian and international consensus on the principles that will guide support for the HTS-led Interim Government. This consensus reflects the belief that the biggest nightmare is over and that even if smaller nightmares lie ahead, they will be easier to overcome.

Reactions from the Arab capitals were not as swift, apart from Qatar which immediately reopened its embassy in Damascus. Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Khulaifi met with Al-Sharaa in Damascus less than two weeks after the fall of the Al-Assad regime.

Other Arab powers have been more cautious, voicing concerns mainly over security-related issues such as the potential for extremism to spread or be exported from Syria. Many expressed a preference for a step-by-step approach in exchange for assurances.

Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait sent their foreign ministers to Syria, while Saudi Arabia, Libya, Lebanon, and Iraq sent envoys from lower ministerial levels or their security agencies.

Meanwhile, the Syrian interim foreign minister visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan at the invitation of these countries. The purpose was most likely to convey additional assurances to the Arab capitals, which had been expected to be the first to support the Syrian opposition that overthrew Al-Assad, ending the 13-year period of his regime’s hostility towards its Arab environment.

According to Syrian political analyst Saeed Moqbel, the international community must contend with the fact that those who now control Syria are headed by the strongest military wing led by Ahmed Al-Sharaa with the support of the majority of Syrians who have waited decades for the fall of the Al-Assad regime.

“This reality must be dealt with politically and diplomatically, if countries want to secure their interests first and those of the Syrian people second. They should encourage the new administration, rather than oppose it. They should try to ensure that the conditions are in place such that its positive words can be translated into concrete actions,” Moqbel said.

Regarding the reactions from the Arab capitals, he said that they “would have been astute if they had taken the initiative to embrace the new Syria and strengthen their relations with it before other countries.”

“Syria is historically, demographically, and strategically prepared for its strategic relations to be with the Arab world. We hope this happens and that the fears of some Arab countries will be allayed through the assurances they receive. Then there can be real integration between Syria and all other Arab stakeholders.”  

Syria has been transformed into a political hub after a long period of marginalisation under Al-Assad, who antagonised the Arab world by disregarding Syria’s natural historic ties with the major Arab powers. Instead, he strengthened relations with Iran and Russia, handing them decision-making power in political, military, and economic affairs.

Al-Assad also forfeited his remaining influence within the Arab world by pursuing a policy of sabotage to put pressure on the Arab countries through shipments of Captagon, arms smuggling, and intelligence leaks.

Syria is now on a threshold of a major reorientation. “Within a week of the fall of the regime, the new administration in Damascus outlined a new axis,” political analyst Abdel-Nasser Al-Qadri told Al-Ahram Weekly.

The so-called Damascus Axis aims to “break the Iranian axis and restore Russian influence to its natural size and to revive stability in a region that has been plagued by uninterrupted conflict and upheaval for more than 14 years,” he said, adding that the new axis “will be part of the arrangements for the New Middle East.”

The US and EU countries are now contemplating when to remove the terrorist designation from HTS and its leader, though they will probably hold off until the interim government meets its words with actions.

Turkey and Qatar have taken immediate steps to become major players in the new Syria. Turkey, host to three million Syrian refugees, has the longest land border with Syria and many shared interests, although Ankara is primarily focused on its security concerns related to the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Turkey is also looking forward to enormous economic benefits and expects to play a major role in Syrian reconstruction.

Qatar shares this vision, having supported the Syrian opposition for 13 years despite disagreements with other Arab regimes. Doha opposed Arab steps to normalise relations with the Al-Assad regime, adhering to the belief that its hardline approach to regime change would be the most effective.  

Although the Arab powers have lagged behind the West in their responses to developments in Damascus, many Syrians are looking forward to initiatives from them, encouraging their country to orient itself towards them instead of towards non-Arab regional and international powers.

Syria’s new leader has expressed this hope, vowing that Syria will not become a platform for destabilising the security of the Arab region and calling on Arab governments to contribute to reconstruction and the revival of the Syrian economy.

A golden opportunity is at hand in the framework of friendly, equitable, and balanced relations among peers, he said.  

Positive reactions from key Arab quarters could be crucial to accelerating the international legitimacy the current leadership in Damascus needs in order to clear the way for the lifting of terror designations and sanctions and reconstruction and recovery efforts.

If the Arab powers drag their feet for too long, the leadership might gain legitimacy regardless, but at their expense.

While some Arab governments may harbour concerns and suspicions towards the HTS-led interim administration, its statements so far have been groundbreaking. European governments expect the administration to prove itself by providing forums for genuine and broad-based participation in the transitional process.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 9 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly