On 4 January, Ethiopia was shaken by a 5.8 magnitude earthquake with its epicentre near Addis Ababa. It was the latest in a series causing landslides and minor volcanic eruptions. The seismic activity has stirred concern over potential impact on the country’s national development projects, a cornerstone of the legitimacy of the Abiy Ahmed government, which is struggling to keep together an ethnically fragmented society.

Some fear that if the current trend of geohazards continues, it will potentially impact the country’s developmental centrepiece, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This megaproject is relatively remote from the African portion of the Great Rift Valley, which consists of a network of rift and fault systems in east Africa, so there are no immediate seismic risks in the vicinity of the dam. However, escalating reoccurrence and magnitude of seismic and volcanic events could have detrimental effects on the body of the dam itself.

A rupture in the dam, which retains vast quantities of water, would unleash a nightmarish ecological and humanitarian disaster on Ethiopia and the downstream nations. It is little wonder that local and international experts have sounded warnings, urging concerted efforts to implement technological precautions to protect the dam from seismic risks.

In Ethiopia itself, the increased frequency and intensity of earthquakes could have severe repercussions on standards of living and the economy, which is already in decline. Inhabitants in the areas closest to seismic activity would be most immediately affected by deteriorating standards of living. For example, on 5 January, the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission reported that 20,573 out of over 51,000 people who were affected by the quakes and tremors that shook Afar, Oromia and Amhara regions over the weekend had to be relocated to safer areas.

Economically, according to recent figures, the Ethiopian currency—the Birr—has lost around 33 per cent of its value, while Addis Ababa’s external debt reached $28 billion by early 2024. The government is currently unable to make the $1.6 billion interest payment on this debt when its foreign currency reserves have dipped to only $1.5 billion.

Infrastructure and infrastructure projects in many parts of the country will also be at risk if Ethiopia becomes a high seismic hazard zone. Buildings, bridges and other urban infrastructure will be more vulnerable to collapse and damage. Utilities and other essential services will be more vulnerable to disruption. Ethiopia experienced about 130 earthquakes and tremors in just two weeks, according to some estimates, the highest rate in nearly a decade.

Increased seismic activity could have potentially destabilising political consequences, affecting not only domestic but also a range of complex foreign issues. The Abiy Ahmed government will come under increasing public pressure to ensure that precautions are in place to mitigate harms from earthquakes and ensure effective emergency and humanitarian responses in the event of such natural disasters. However, the government’s economic strains could hamper its efficacy in performing these tasks, and poor government performance at a time of need could, at the very least, erode Abiy Ahmed’s popularity.  

Increasing frequency and intensity of earthquakes could also undermine Addis Ababa’s efficacy in handling delicate and pressing foreign policy issues. The recent wave of seismic activity coincided with escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over the former country’s deal to build a naval base in Somaliland which broke away from Somalia thirty years ago. Although a Turkish-brokered reconciliation agreement in late December led to a détente, the underlying dispute remains unresolved. Indeed, Addis Ababa and Mogadishu have already begun to trade accusations again.

Preoccupation with seismic hazards and disasters could restrict the Ethiopian government’s manoeuvrability towards the crisis with Mogadishu and other regional issues. Certainly, the need to deploy more resources at home to contend with the seismic risks could hamper Addis Ababa’s bid to fill a regional power vacuum in the Horn of Africa and dampen its ambitions to expand its control and influence in the continent.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 9 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly