Iran waits for a strike?

Mina Adel, Tuesday 14 Jan 2025

The way is now clear for Israel to attack Iran through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, prompting Tehran to carry out massive military exercises in preparation

Iran waits for a strike?
Iranian Sevom Khordad air defence

 

Last Saturday, Iran carried out air defence drills and filmed them in detail in order to defend the Natanz nuclear reactor in Isfahan. Sevom Khordad air defence units, an Iranian version of the Russian Buk system, simulated repelling a missile attack on the reactor, and the Sakr-358 defence system simulated the interception of bunker buster bombs designed to destroy fortifications deep underground.

“In these exercises, defence systems will practise the fight against air, missile and electronic warfare threats in real battlefield conditions to protect the country’s skies and sensitive and vital areas,” an Iranian television report stated.

However, long-range defence systems, such as the Russian-made S-300, which are capable of intercepting Israeli aero-ballistic missiles, were absent. This raises doubts about whether Iran has such combat units after the Israeli attack in October 2024. Without them, Iranian air defences will inevitably suffer in the event of a new air attack.

Iranian state TV released a three-minute video of the country’s new underground missile base showing two commanders, Major General Hossein Salami and Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, touring the facility and walking over US and Israeli flags.

On the same day, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency stated that 110,000 members of the Iranian Basij (volunteer) forces had held massive drills as part of the Payambar-e Azam (Great Prophet) military exercise.

Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, said that “the enemy may claim that our production capacity has stopped, but they should know that our missile capabilities are the most advanced, and our missiles are evolving daily in terms of performance and design.”

The Iranian drills came in parallel with the fifth Israeli attack, in cooperation with the UK Royal Air Force and the US Navy, targeting the vicinity of Seventy Square in Sanaa in Yemen, the camp of the central command of the Yemeni Republican Guard, Camp 48 in Haziz, and other Houthi military targets in various areas in the Yemeni capital.

The Ras Isa oil facility and the port of Hodeidah were also targeted, along with other strikes on Amran, Sanaa, and Hodeidah.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said that “today’s strike by the Israel Defence Force on Yemen is a clear message to the leader of the Houthi terrorist group, Abdel-Malik Al-Houthi, and the leaders of the Houthi terrorist group in Yemen: there will be no immunity for anyone.”

“We will pursue and hunt you down and destroy the terror infrastructures you have established. The port of Hodeidah is paralysed and the port of Ras Isa is on fire, and the message is clear: whoever harms Israel will be struck much, much more.”

The current situation between Iran and Israel is less balanced than it was, as Israel has been able through military operations to neutralise the danger of the pro-Iranian militias that served to support the Iranians in the region and imposed the terms of negotiations with the US.

Now, only the Houthis are left to face the US, Israeli, and British military. They are continuing to fight, even if with less intensity, but the road is now clear for the Israeli and US air forces to launch a coordinated attack on Iran through Syrian and Iraqi airspace.

This has prompted the Iranians to carry out massive military exercises to try to restore their prestige, at least for internal public opinion.

Researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies Benny Sabti told the Israeli newspaper Maariv last Friday that public discontent in Iran has risen in recent weeks with the escalation of economic difficulties in the country.

“The Iranian regime has wasted 50 billion dollars in Syria since 2000, all of which has disappeared into thin air, along with the money sent to Lebanon and other places,” Sabti said.

“There are daily power outages lasting from six to seven hours in Tehran and throughout the country, with longer outages in remote areas. Power outages are followed by water shortages, and air pollution is aggravated by the lack of enough clean gas to heat factories and homes.”

According to Reuters, US President-elect Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg said that “the world must return to a policy of ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran to turn it into a more democratic country” at an Iranian opposition event in Paris on Saturday.

Trump himself has insisted on a “maximum pressure strategy” against Iran.

Iran feels the danger and wants to show that it still has the defensive and offensive capabilities to threaten US interests in the region as well as Israel. There are questions regarding the cost of this, however, whether through supporting the Houthis or suffering the Israeli air strikes and then responding.

Former Head of the Israeli Mossad Intelligence Directorate Zohar Palti said in a podcast that “the double-edged sword of the Iranians’ use of their Ground-Ground Missiles is that they [can deter] Israel from attacks on Iran. Now, this psychological barrier no longer exists. We have already done it twice. And this is even before Trump reenters the picture.”

Even as tensions rise in the Middle East, there has been at least some sign of de-escalation, with the Axios website saying that “President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Israel on Saturday to push for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal before 20 January.”

This will be an opportunity for all the parties to catch their breath and move to resolve the other issues in the region. However, the problem of the Iranian nuclear programme and the possibility of a new nuclear agreement will remain a difficult challenge for the new US administration. The Israelis will try to use it to neutralise the Iranian threat completely instead of just weakening it as they have done in the past.

The Iranians themselves are in an unenviable situation and are trying to maintain their influence or compensate for what has been lost by approaching new parties. However, little by little, Iranian influence is being replaced by Turkish influence in the region, and the Iranians are losing their former position.

Turkey is a favoured alternative for the US administration, but it worries the Israelis due to the Turkish membership of NATO and its large industrial and military capacity. Turkish-backed factions may serve Israeli interests in Syria by cutting off Iranian supplies to Hizbullah, but they are also expanding in the country and proving their rule.

Israel is using this to impose a policy of retaining the strategic positions it already controls. All indications are that this year will witness more exceptional events in the Middle East.

 

* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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