Uncertainty looms for Iraq in post-Assad Syria

Salah Nasrawi , Wednesday 15 Jan 2025

Iraq’s Shia rulers are jittery as Syria’s new leaders consolidate their grip on the neighbouring country

Uncertainty looms for Iraq in post- Assad Syria
The commander of Iraqi border forces inspects the construction of the concrete wall with Syria

 

The dramatic ouster of former Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad on 8 December has sparked anxiety in Iraq that the Islamist group now in charge in Syria will scramble the fragile sectarian balance of power in a country that has endured more than two decades of divisions.

The Islamist takeover of Syria, which coincides with the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump and a string of high-stakes Middle East conflicts, is already putting Iraqi leaders in a difficult position, forcing them to cautiously recalibrate the ways in which they look at the challenge and the decisions they take.

The stress has plunged Iraq into another cycle of dread, with speculation growing that possible chaos in neighbouring Syria could combine with Trump’s unpredictable approach to Middle East conflicts to cause them to emerge as major flashpoints in the region.

Whether out of common sense or desperation, many Iraqis believe that in order for their country to end its political deadlock change must be brought to its failing political system. The fall of Al-Assad in Syria could be a good time for that to take place.

The election of a new president in Lebanon last week ending years of stalemate after the heavy blows dealt by Israel during the conflict with Hizbullah is also expected to mark a real test for Iraq’s Shia leaders and whether they will heed demands for change.

However, Iraqi Shia stakeholders remain terrified over calls for change and believe that their opponents want to force it through by spreading panic and inciting rebellion. They have made no secret of their worries about potential threats that could lead to heightened domestic tensions and possibly escalate into regional conflict.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani has dismissed calls to change the shaky political spoils system in the country in the wake of the radical changes in Syria with the ouster of the Al-Assad regime.

“Some parties are using the situation in Syria to attempt to change the system of rule in Iraq. This issue is not up for debate,” Al-Sudani declared at a public ceremony last week.

“No one has the right to impose change and reforms in any area, whether economic or security-related,” he said, while admitting that “reforms are needed in various sectors.”

Other Shia leaders echoed Al-Sudani’s views. Ammar Al-Hakim, the leader of a key faction, dismissed predictions of change as just so much “Facebook chattering.” He said there was a regional and international will to support Iraq’s stability and avoid chaos.

Al-Hakim even claimed that Iraq’s Shia leaders have received assurances from Trump through various emissaries that he has no intention or targeting Iraq’s political system or shaking up the country’s stability.

The shakeup in Syria could evolve into simmering threats that could impact Iraq directly. Iraq’s concerns are primarily focused on the potential consequences of divergences between Baghdad and Damascus that could lead them to a crossroads.

The ascent of the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) Jihadist movement in Syria comes at a critical moment for Iraq, as the country continues to fight Islamic State (IS) militants and remains embroiled in sectarian and ethnic fissures.

A resurgence of IS could plunge Iraq into another round of disorder and possibly a renewed civil war.

In a broader perspective, the rise to power of Sunni Muslim jihadists in Syria could lead to a direct confrontation between the two neighbouring nations coinciding with Trump taking office and expectations that he will play a significant role in reshaping a new Middle East.

One of the sources of apprehension among the Iraqi Shia elites is the fate of minorities, especially the Alawites and Kurds, in post-Al-Assad Syria if its new rulers fail to find an inclusive solution.

Given the background of HTS and reports of violent attacks by militant groups around the country following its takeover of Damascus, Iraqi Shias fear that Syria’s new rulers could usher in an era of intolerance and persecution against these minorities.

Continued tensions and escalating clashes between Turkish-backed factions and Kurdish-led forces in north and northeastern parts of Syria risk expanding into Iraq, which faces heightened tensions in the region.

The threat could evolve into something even more dangerous if Turkish troops already stationed in Syria and Iraq become involved in a larger military conflict. Turkish-Kurdish fighting in northern Syria bodes ill for Iraqi Kurdistan, which is divided by two main rival political clans and has a troubled relationship with Baghdad.

Meanwhile, pressure for change on the country’s Shia leadership from disgruntled Iraqis is increasing, with new political groups emerging and petitions calling for a democratic and civil state. A group of intellectuals issued a 10-point manifesto “to salvage Iraq from the abyss” last Thursday, for example.

However, most significantly both Sunni and Kurdish partners in the Iraqi government are finding an opportunity in the context created by post-Al-Assad Syria to press their demands and reap various benefits.

Several key Sunni groups have declared the formation of a United Sunni Leadership Alliance that they said aims at pushing for solutions to outstanding “political, legal, and humanitarian” demands by Iraq’s Sunni community.

One of the leaders of the group, Speaker of Parliament Mahmoud Al-Mashadani, has called on the Shia leadership to implement a “national political settlement” that he described as a roadmap to resolve communal disputes.

As confusion and opportunism in Iraq deepens following the Syrian shakeup, the Iraqi Kurds also seem to see an opportunity to capitalise on the uncertainty and double down on their nationalist and autonomy demands.

Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani lambasted Baghdad’s attitudes towards the KRG as “unfair and unacceptable” on Saturday. Barzani, who had just returned from Turkey after meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, called on all Kurdish political forces to unite against Baghdad.

Later, the KRG issued a statement calling on the government to resolve outstanding problems such as Kirkuk, disputed areas and oil and threatened to “defend the region’s constitutional rights “through all various available means.”

Pressing questions seem to hang over the Iraqi Shia leadership over how to face up to such enormous challenges. They know that the events in Syria might reshape the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, including the influence of their powerful ally Iran.

Beyond the rhetoric of defiant official statements, the country’s leaders will find themselves in a quandary absorbing the impact of the fall of the Iran-made regional power structure that has collapsed with Al-Assad’s ouster.

One of the key demands believed to have been made to the Iraqi government is for the disbanding of the Popular Moblisation Force (PMF) that was formed from Iran-backed Shia militias to fight IS in Iraq, but that many now say represents a challenge to civil-military relations as the fighters remain loyal to their former commanders.

Other suggestions made to the Shia political elites in Iraq and reported by local media include restructuring the PMF and transforming the militias into legal political parties and accommodating them in the political system.

Demands to disarm the self-organised Shia militias in Iraq have previously been made, including by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the country’s senior Shia cleric, but they have fallen significantly short of requiring dissolving the PMF, which under the law is a state military force.

It remains an open question whether Al-Sudani will be able to tweak his government’s policies in order to tackle the future of the PMF, but its commander, Falih Al-Fayyad, has signalled that the 250,000 strong force is “ready to confront threats,” and the militia’s leaders have vowed to stand fast against attempts to disarm or demobilise them.

What is clear, however, is that the Shia ruling class in Iraq is caught between a rock and a hard place as demands for change increase and the region is being reshaped after the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the fallout of the collapse of the Al-Assad regime in Syria.

What is worsening Iraq’s dilemma is Iran’s insistence on maintaining an offensive posture in its regional activities even as its influence is waning, making it delusional to think that Iraq’s Shia leadership will usher in policy changes without thinking about Iran’s response.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear that the Islamic Republic stands opposed to restructuring the PMF, which he has described as “one of the important components of power” in Iraq.

“Effective steps should be taken to further strengthen and enhance it as much as possible,” Khamenei told Al-Sudani last week when the latter flew to Tehran to find out where Tehran stands on the current situation.

Khamenei suggested that “Iraq must stand against the illegal presence of the US on its soil.”

“There is evidence that the Americans are trying to consolidate and expand their presence in Iraq,” he said.

Before Al-Sudani’s plane touched down in Tehran, Khamenei even vowed to revitalise the “Resistance Axis,” the umbrella under which Iran’s proxies work across the Middle East.

 

* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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