The Sudanese army and its allies regained control of Wad Madani, Al-Jazeera State’s capital, over a year after it fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Many view the army’s advance in Al-Jazeera as a turning point, marking the beginning of the end for the RSF and signalling a shift in favour of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). It is also seen as part of a series of gains by the army in Khartoum, Darfur, Sennar and elsewhere.
Fears persist regarding the ongoing devastation of a conflict now in its 21st month, however. The war has brought about not only bloodshed, destruction, severe humanitarian crises and atrocities but also foreign interventions, necessitating not only an end to hostilities but an exploration of alternative pathways to resolving the crisis of Sudan.
Several factors led to the army’s success at this particular time: the RSF suffering from attrition, the use of aircraft and drones to target RSF positions, and – a pivotal factor – the widespread anger and resentment triggered by the atrocities and violations committed during the RSF’s control of Al-Jazeera.
Despite the RSF denying responsibility, these crimes mobilised large numbers of residents in support of the army’s efforts to reclaim and liberate their state. Additionally, the army has been bolstered by Islamist factions, remnants of the deposed regime of Omar Al-Bashir, and allied armed movements.
Defections from within the RSF by, among others, the forces loyal to Abu Aqla Kikil, a prominent RSF field commander, have also played a critical role.
The recapture of Wad Madani implies a moral victory, boosting morale in the army and its political, media, and diplomatic apparatuses, which have framed the takeover as a strategic triumph, a decisive blow to the RSF, and a prelude to ultimate victory.
Strategically located in central Sudan, Al-Jazeera borders key regions like the White Nile and Sennar and is in close proximity to Khartoum. It is an important agricultural, commercial, and industrial hub, with a population of 12 million. The ongoing conflict had made the state a refuge for vast numbers of displaced people, with Wad Madani — Sudan’s second-largest city after Khartoum — becoming a focal point.
Meanwhile, the RSF continues to retain control over portions of Al-Jazeera and other states. Following the loss of Wad Madani, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) said it was a lost round rather than a lost war. His remarks were interpreted as both an admission of defeat and an attempt to bolster the morale of his forces. Hemedti vowed to continue the conflict, stating: “We have been fighting for 21 months, and we will fight for 21 years.” He made threats against Islamist leaders and figures associated with the former Al-Bashir regime, reiterating his intention to prolong the conflict, exact revenge, and either regain lost ground or solidify his existing positions.
This means that, unless the international community is able to intervene meaningfully to stop the conflict, the war is far from over, with the zero-sum dynamic still in place.
In the meantime, the humanitarian situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate. Reports from the United Nations and human rights organisations detail grave violations, including indiscriminate killings, the use of civilians as human shields, and widespread sexual violence. The International Rescue Committee estimates that the death toll has reached 150,000, while Sudan faces the world’s largest displacement crisis.
Compounding the tragedy, the collapse of the nation’s health infrastructure has led to the rapid spread of diseases such as cholera, malaria, dengue fever, and rubella. Access to clean water, sanitation, and food supplies is severely compromised, pushing 25 million Sudanese to the brink of famine, according to international reports.
Following the army’s recapture of Wad Madani, the SAF said it stands against negotiating with the RSF. The army commander, Lieutenant General Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan declared, “we reject their presence in Sudan’s future,” adding that the conflict will not cease until the RSF withdraws from civilian areas and halts its reliance on military and political support from certain foreign actors. Al-Burhan accused the RSF of committing war crimes and genocide against civilians during the war.
Lieutenant General Shamseddin Kabashi, deputy commander-in-chief of the army, echoed this resolve at a public celebration marking the recapture of Wad Madani, saying the SAF will continue their campaign against the RSF until the last inch of Sudanese territory is liberated.
Shortly after the army’s victory in Wad Madani, the Merowe Dam was targeted by drones, causing widespread power outages in northern Sudan, Omdurman, and the interim capital of Port Sudan. The army attributed the attack to the RSF.
Questions arose as to whether Sudan is veering towards a protracted conflict akin to Syria’s, and whether the international community has the will or capacity to intervene meaningfully.
However, the solution to Sudan’s crisis ultimately rests on internal unity, national consensus, and a comprehensive vision for addressing the root causes of the conflict. Unless these pillars are in place, the war will continue to ravage the country, leaving behind destruction, displacement, and despair.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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