According to informed Egyptian diplomatic sources, Egypt has been cautious in engaging the new political regime in Syria and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.
The same sources say, however, that while Cairo has adopted a wait-and-see approach vis-à-vis Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham’s rule in Damascus, Cairo “has defined the parameters for any future engagement in no uncertain terms”.
They add that a clear set of demands from Cairo to Damascus were made prior to, and during, the participation of Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty in the Arab-Western ministerial summit on Syria that Riyadh hosted on Sunday.
The first parameters, said one source, is that Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham “actively refrain from hosting anyone that might be perceived in Egypt as hostile to” the Egyptian regime.
During his participation in the Riyadh ministerial meeting, attended by Syria’s new Foreign Minister Assad Al-Shaybani alongside the foreign ministers of several Arab and Western countries and secretaries-general of regional and subregional organisations, Abdelatty said that Syria should categorically refrain from hosting terrorists. He added that the concerned regional and international states should help Syria with anti-terror efforts.
According to diplomatic sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly after Abdelatty’s statements in Riyadh, terrorist in the Egyptian lexicon includes anyone who subscribes to an organisation labelled as terrorist in any of the states present at the Riyadh meeting.
The same sources say Abdelatty’s statement sent a clear message that Egypt would not settle for any Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham disclaimers.
Last month, Egypt received assurances from the new regime in Syria that despite the appearance of an opponent of the Egyptian regime in a picture with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the new Syrian regime has no intention of becoming involved in anti-Egyptian activities.
The second parameter, say sources, is that the new government in Damascus refrain from promoting Islamist groups in any way. They add that as far as Cairo is concerned, Islamist groups, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, are a red line. Cairo will not accept Muslim Brotherhood figures appearing on Syrian TV channels or holding meetings in Syria.
The third parameter is for Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham to refrain from supporting militant groups in the region, including Hamas in Gaza. In the words of one source: “Egypt sees no reason to try to get Palestinian factions to make any move that may complicate the already devastating situation in Gaza under the banner of resistance.”
The same source said that statements made by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham leaders indicating Syria’s new regime has no plans to enter into a confrontation with Israel, which has expanded its military occupation of Syrian territories since the ouster of Bashar Al-Assad on 8 December, are not the same as promising not to encourage Hamas “to make uncalculated moves”.
According to the same diplomatic sources, these are “safeguarding measures” designed to protect Egypt’s national and regional strategic interests.
The diplomatic sources, who spoke independently, declined to say whether Abdelatty’s reference to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham in a recent TV interview with Al-Arabiya, the Saudi-owned satellite channel, as “the de facto regime in Syria” indicated concrete reservations about the new political dispensation in Syria on the part of Cairo, though one of the three sources said that the statement was designed to reflect Egyptian “unease about the way regime change occurred in Syria”, adding that the position is consistent with Cairo’s longstanding rejection of regime change at the hands of militant groups.
Beyond these safeguarding parameters, the sources said Egypt will “engage conservatively with the new regime in Syria” based on security reports on the positions that Damascus is taking. Other factors that will determine the pace and progress of Egyptian engagement, they add, include the attitude of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham towards the Syrian army and Syria’s diplomatic choices.
Cairo will also keep a close watch on the position the regime takes towards the rights of minorities, religious and political, and whether or not it pursues an inclusive political approach or adopts a sectarian line.
The same sources point out that Egypt is actively engaged with important Syrian political players, including some who had been members of the civil opposition. Egypt is also engaged with concerned regional players in assessing developments in Syria and their impact on regional stability, especially in Gaza where Egypt is hard at work with Qatar and the US, and to a lesser extent the European Union, to kickstart a ceasefire to the Israeli war which began on 7 October 2023 and has exacted an enormous humanitarian cost.
But the most decisive factor determining whether Egypt will move forward with Syria’s new regime, the sources agreed, relates to its choices when it comes to Islamism. Egypt, they point out, has a close rapport with the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces Abdul-Fattah Al-Burhan, and some of his top military aides, despite their Islamist background, signalling that Cairo makes fine discriminations.
According to a former Egyptian security source, Cairo does not lump all Islamists together and “there is a difference between an Islamist who subscribes to state institutions, such as national armed forces, and an Islamist who had past association with radical groups like Al-Qaeda.”
The security source said that “clearly” the current regime in Syria “is not what Egypt would have hoped for Syria, but at the end of the day we respect the choices of Syrians — provided we are talking about a choice that is endorsed by the vast majority of the Syrian people.”
The same source said that it is not enough for the new leaders of Syria to send reassuring messages: what counts “is how the new regime will act, today and tomorrow.”
For now, the former security source said, it “seems” the new leaders of Syria want to focus on the internal front and to cooperate with capitals that can lend them a helping hand, particularly Ankara and Riyadh.
In its final communiqué, the Riyadh meeting on Syria committed to help Syria move on with reconstruction, capacity and institution-building and build an inclusive political process.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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