Ahram Online: Do you think that foreign interventions in Syria are endangering the transitional phase?
Geir Pedersen: Syria is now effectively laying the foundations for a new country. The country has been a geopolitical battleground for over a decade, with five or six active foreign armies operating within its borders and various international players vying for influence and seeking to shape its future to align with their strategic interests. External pressures may make the transitional phase exceptionally challenging, with some actors actively resisting progress in one direction or another to maintain their leverage. This happens everywhere, all the time. It is not unique to Syria. But at the same time, we have seen what this meant in Syria. I have signalled to all international partners that as Syrians seek to chart their transition, the international players need a common message of support and expectation while forgoing narrow agendas.
To navigate these challenges, Syrians must engage in the diligent work of alliance-building and compromise, a true test of political skill for the current caretaker authorities and the future transitional body. Forging internal unity out of diversity and finding consensus amid competing priorities will be key. The urgent need for Syrians to come together in a genuinely inclusive and credible process and develop a shared vision for their state and future is central to this process. Syria’s internal unity will be essential to managing external pressures or competing interests effectively and reclaiming Syria’s sovereignty.
AO: How do you view the leadership of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in the transitional phase? And do you think the time is right to lift sanctions on Syria?
GP: It is important to distinguish between the caretaker and transitional phases. During the caretaker phase, which is expected to last until March, relying on the Salvation Government from Idlib may be practical for administrative continuity. However, the transitional phase, which will extend over a much longer period, is critical in laying the foundations for a new Syria. This phase must go beyond practicality and focus on inclusivity, bringing together all segments of Syrian society.
Inclusivity should recognize armed factions and honour the enormous efforts of political factions and civil society organizations. Many groups have played an indispensable role in advocating for the revolution and ensuring the international community remains engaged and supportive. Women-led groups, locally and globally, have established themselves as a primary force in shaping the country’s future. Many Syrians, including victims-led organizations, have worked tirelessly over these past years in developing key policy recommendations for the coming period, including transitional justice processes. All these groups must be an integral part of any process.
That is why compromise and alliance-building are so important. The transitional period must reflect Syria’s diversity – not through rigid quotas, but by genuinely incorporating those who have fought for real change, and indeed also by reaching out to those who feared change for whatever reason and need to find their place in a new Syria. A united and representative leadership is essential to navigate this critical phase and effectively address domestic and external challenges.
On sanctions, most immediately, it is essential for states imposing sanctions to carefully evaluate their humanitarian consequences and ensure that exemptions are broad and effective enough to prevent additional hardships for the Syrian people.
At the same time, Syria’s new caretaker authorities have a chance to signal a clear break from the past by ensuring a credible and inclusive transitional phase. This includes respecting human rights, women’s rights, freedoms, and minority rights — not as a response to external demands but as a genuine commitment to building a new Syria. Such actions would also earn the support of the international community.
Ultimately, I believe the opportunity clearly exists for sanctions to be lifted. I am convinced that the best way to ensure this will be if the new system established in Syria reflects the principles that led people to seek change in 2011: opposition to tyranny and a commitment to individual freedoms, equality, and rights for all citizens.
AO: Do you think that efforts to form a new army for Syria will succeed? And what are the most prominent challenges facing it?
GP: The effort to form a new, unified Syrian national army is crucial for the country’s future stability, and while integrating armed factions into the military could be a significant step towards dissolving these factions, it requires careful management and monitoring.
A key challenge is that armed factions, in their current form, cannot build a cohesive national army. The army must be rebuilt by probably incorporating current conscripts, defected officers, and select leaders and elements from the dissolved factions. Without this, Syria risks developing multiple competing armies and chains of command, as seen elsewhere. Such fragmentation would severely undermine national unity and defence capacity.
Furthermore, the transformation of the military must go beyond restructuring personnel — it requires a fundamental shift in military culture. A new Syrian army must be built on professionalism, civilian oversight, and respect for human rights, ensuring it serves the entire nation, not just a specific political faction.
Externally, Syria’s military capacity has already been severely weakened by nearly 14 years of conflict, Israeli strikes, and ongoing foreign interventions, which further complicate the rebuilding process. This will require significant financial resources, and I believe international support will come if there is confidence in a government that represents the entire population and respects the human rights of its people. If that does not happen, there will be real challenges.
AO: Iraq suffered years of sectarian violence after the fall of Saddam Hussein. What are the most prominent lessons for Syria to avoid this fate?
GP: Historical comparisons must be cautiously approached, as each situation's unique set of circumstances makes direct parallels challenging.
That being said, Syria stands at a pivotal moment in history, one that offers a crucial opportunity for positive change. The end of over fifty years of oppressive, authoritarian rule has sparked a renewed sense of hope. Moving forward will require careful management by the Syrians themselves, supported by the international community, and that will include preserving Syria’s institutions while fundamentally reforming them.
AO: How do you see the future of the situation in the Kurdish areas in northern Syria in light of the recent skirmishes between the "SDF" and forces loyal to Turkey?
GP: The situation in northern Syria, particularly in the Kurdish areas, remains complex, with ongoing tensions and occasional skirmishes between various actors. These dynamics reflect Syria's broader challenges in achieving long-term peace and stability. All parties involved must engage in dialogue and work towards a comprehensive, inclusive resolution.
A lasting solution must prioritize Syria’s sovereignty, unity, independence, and territorial integrity while addressing the legitimate concerns of all communities in the region. In this context, any resolution must include the participation of all relevant stakeholders, ensuring that the aspirations and security of local populations are respected. Through cooperation and constructive negotiation, building a framework for peace that benefits the entire country is possible.
AO: Does the United Nations see the need to prosecute symbols of the former regime? And what are the most prominent efforts in this regard?
GP: This is a very important question. Transitional justice is a fundamental component of Syria’s future. Syrians worldwide have led multitudes of initiatives in documentation, prosecutions, and policy recommendations that now have a chance to be put into practice. After decades of forced silence, there is an urge to have the truth, including the truth about the tens of thousands of missing and disappeared, and to have justice. We are hearing loud and clear the relatives of those who disappeared: they want the truth, and they want accountability. The Syrian people have sacrificed immensely to make accountability possible.
History has shown that successful transitional justice processes in various regions have played a key role in fostering peace and reconciliation, and one key lesson is that these processes have to be led primarily by the nationals of that country.
Syria now faces a crucial opportunity to build its future based on justice, human rights, accountability, and the rule of law. Addressing the full scale of atrocities requires a collective effort from national and international actors. One of the most pressing issues is the large number of missing persons, which has affected nearly every Syrian family. In response, the United Nations has established a dedicated body to support victims, clarify the fate of the missing, and assist survivors in seeking justice.
Moving forward, it is essential for all relevant bodies — both local and international — to work together closely. Only through a comprehensive and collaborative approach to transitional justice, led first and foremost by the Syrians themselves, can the country achieve accountability and foster hope for sustainable peace in the future.
AO: Israel launched opportunistic attacks on Syria under the pretext of the collapse of the disengagement agreement concluded in 1974. How do you see that?
GP: The continued Israeli military operations within and beyond the area of separation, in violation of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement, are deeply concerning. The use of live ammunition against civilians, the displacement of populations, and the destruction of critical civilian infrastructure are troubling and must stop.
Israel’s repeated large-scale attacks on Syrian military targets, especially after the fall of the Assad regime, have significantly weakened Syria’s military capacity. Regardless of their strategic rationale, such attacks are unacceptable under international law. The destruction of Syria’s defence infrastructure, including key military capabilities, is a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. These attacks have further destabilized the country and exacerbated divisions, making it even more difficult for Syria to rebuild and move towards a peaceful, unified future.
AO: What is the fate of UN Security Council Resolution 2254? Will it be amended as the new Syrian administration demands? Are there procedures to implement this resolution, or will the future of the situation in Syria go in a different direction?
GP: UN Security Council resolution 2254 was not about one individual or a specific government; it is fundamentally about an inclusive, Syrian-led transition towards a free, democratic Syria that respects human rights. Resolution 2254 focuses on the restoration of Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people for dignity, justice, and freedom through setting up an inclusive transitional governing body that oversees a transitional period in which a new constitution is prepared and adopted, and free and fair elections take place following highest international standards. The core principles and objectives of 2254 remain as valid today as when they were first agreed upon.
Obviously, resolution 2254 cannot, in the new circumstances, be applied mechanically, but it is a binding Security Council resolution, and its core principles and objectives have wide consensus. No one should underestimate how important an inclusive political transition is for Syrians and the international community. If we do not see that, then I think we could see new conflicts and challenges, which is why it is so important that the inclusive basis for the future is laid now. The UN will do all it can to support a Syrian-led, inclusive, and credible political process that reflects the will of all Syrians, ensuring that the country's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity are respected and the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people are realized.
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