Can there be such a thing as a regional Arab project that holds its own against the US, EU, Iranian, Turkish, and Israeli projects in terms of policy, diplomacy, economy and soft and hard power? My answer might come as a surprise to some, given the historical record of pan-Arab nationalism or its Islamist counterpart, but it is yes. Nor does this invalidate the Arab bond as manifested at its minimum level in the Arab League. Despite the common impression that this organisation is of little use, no one has advocated withdrawing from it or closing it. From everyone’s perspective, it remains, at the very least, a vehicle for bringing the Arabs closer together and bridging differences between them.
Still, an Arab project is vitally important precisely because of other projects that threaten the individual and collective national security of the Arab states. But security would not be the only objective, since the countries I’m thinking of have chosen the path of comprehensive development within the framework of the nation state, and economic development requires expanding markets. Security and progress are therefore the key words for a project bringing together Arab countries whose national interests lead them to seek out fellow Arab countries with similar interests, outlooks and motivations.
The problem is not just that the world is changing but also that it is changing in ways that are either threatening to us or simply not in our interests. The first and most immediate change is Donald Trump’s return to the White House, bringing with him an unprecedented agenda. Domestically, due to a negative attitude towards economic and political liberalism, it will aim to reduce the size and capacities of the federal government. This will be of little concern to us. But for the American people and their interests, Trump’s government reduction policies could precipitate dangerous societal rifts, the signs of which were already palpable during the presidential elections.
Energy is another sensitive matter, both in the US and the world. Trump has no concern for the planet’s safety and the threat of global warming. To him, oil production is merely a source of strength and relative immunity for the US, so he will push for expanding fracking.
On foreign policy, the US has been accustomed to being the primary pole in the world order, although it has been keeping an eye on the growing economic, military and technological resources of the rising second pole, namely China. In other words, we are on the threshold of another version of the bipolar order of the Cold War era. It may be different from its predecessors by dint of the effect of time, but it will still have the capacity to generate wars both cold and hot. Now, to add to this, the new administration in Washington plans to bring its allies and friends to heel by making them pay for the costs of falling under the US strategic umbrella, thereby rectifying the balance of trade with Washington and covering the costs of US defence. So far, the takeaway from Trump’s foreign policy declarations amounts to a major assault, not on Russia, China or other major world powers, but rather on Canada, Mexico, Panama, Greenland, and the EU—the NATO axis, in short.
Regarding this region, the main change during the last two years relates to the repercussions of the fifth Gaza war. These come on top of the consequences of the so-called Arab Spring, which produced two types of Arab states: conflict-plagued states embroiled in sectarian and civil strife, and developing states set on national unity, construction and progress in order to catch up with the contemporary era and compete effectively within it.
The first type causes regional instability, which is harmful to all Arab states. The second type needs extensive markets commensurate with their potential for growth. So far, this category consists of nine countries—the six Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. On 21 October 2023, they signed a statement outlining a path to an Arab-Israeli peace. The statement also condemned targeting civilians by any party.
This group is open to all who accept the fundamental criteria of the Arab nation state and its desire to catch up with a world that can reach the moon and the universe beyond. These countries refuse to remain on the lowest rungs of the global ladder of progress. During the past ten years, they have made great strides in consolidating their identity, cementing their far-flung corners together through nationwide industrial and urban development projects, and including their youth in the largest nation-building processes in Arab history.
The recently announced Egyptian-Saudi Coordination Council is an excellent step towards a collective framework for this region’s nation states, and one of its main aims is to bring other countries on board.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 23 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: