Last Sunday, the Israeli Air Force was preparing to receive three hostages from the International Committee of the Red Cross in the Gaza Strip. Their families had been waiting for their release during their more than 400 days in custody since the events of 7 October 2023.
Israeli reconnaissance drones watched the three young women as they got into white SUVs and headed to Al-Saha Square near the Baptist Hospital in Gaza City. Amid a gathering organised by the Hamas police force in the Strip, the first time it had appeared since the beginning of the Israeli war on Gaza, the hostages emerged from their vehicles and were handed over to the Red Cross workers after they had signed certificates to receive them.
The Israeli Army then handed over the hostages after they boarded a CH-53 plane to Commander of the Israeli Air Force Tomer Bar. “Romi, Emily and Doron,” he said, using the first names of the three hostages, “we are finally bringing you home.”
The role of the Israeli Air Force, the most famous in the Middle East, was limited to the transfer of the hostages. The greatest credit for their release goes to the negotiators and mediators from the Egyptian, Qatari, and US sides, who brought together representatives of Israel and Hamas to find a rational solution to the crisis.
Left to their own devices, the two parties were only interested in more destruction and killing, without regard for civilians and their suffering.
Earlier on the same day, the Israeli Forces withdrew from the whole of the Gaza Strip with the exception of the Netzarim Corridor. They established a buffer zone two to three km deep inside the Strip to separate it from the fence that marks the border with Israel.
The vacuum was then filled by Hamas pick-up vehicles carrying heavily armed fighters in uniforms similar to the ones worn during parades before the operation of 7 October 2023. These parades have now been going on for days, as Hamas is keen to deliver a message to the Israeli side.
According to Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to Hamas who is based in Turkey, in a statement made to the New York Times, “the message is that Hamas is ‘the day after’ for the war. They’re conveying that Hamas must be a part of any future arrangements, or at least be coordinated with” any future arrangements for the governance of the Strip.
The US network CNN reported that “some Israeli ministers, lawmakers, and even a small minority of hostage families view the acceptance of a deal as an Israeli defeat. Far-right Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his party resigned from the government and Knesset [Israeli Parliament], calling the truce a ‘surrender.’”
“Fellow right-winger, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, called it ‘catastrophic,’ and a group of army reservists labelled it ‘the Surrender Deal,’” the network said.
Despite the shock of seeing Hamas fighters parading in an armed manner in Gaza, it confirms the group’s ability to adapt after the Israeli aerial bombardments of Gaza and intensive military operations on the ground resulting in tens of thousands of deaths.
This adaptability is due to a strategy approved by former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar shortly before his death, which involves recruiting more fighters.
Outgoing US secretary of state Antony Blinken also said in remarks at the Atlantic Council, a US think tank, that “each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void. Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”
As a result, what we are witnessing now is similar to what happened after the Second Intifada at the beginning of the second millennium and the subsequent victory of Hamas in Gaza in the 2007 Palestinian elections.
Hamas became stronger and larger by recruiting many more young people and strengthening its military capabilities in the Strip, despite clashes with Israeli forces in 2009, 2014, and 2021 during military operations.
In 2023, Israel employed five military divisions to try to destroy 24 battalions of Palestinian factions in the Strip. Despite all its military efforts, however, Israeli reports indicate the destruction of only 12 battalions, 100 km of tunnels, and the elimination of 25 Hamas commanders.
These losses are now being compensated for by Hamas’ recruiting more young people in the Strip.
Israeli journalist Seith Frantzman wrote in the Israeli newspaper the Jerusalem Post recently that “the population of Gaza is young, more than half under age 18. Hamas has a ready pool of recruits.”
While Hamas has been militarily weakened, with its battalions dismantled, its ammunition stockpiles depleted, and its leadership neutralised, it is only a matter of time before it regains its strength.
It may take some time, but it will happen. This is consistent with the analysis that says that despite the military losses inflicted on the group, these will not lead to the final destruction of Hamas. Instead, it will only see a pause until the movement regains its full military capability.
As a result, there is no alternative to finding a diplomatic solution to the divisions between Palestinians and Israelis to reduce the material losses of further conflict and the lives lost by innocent civilians.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 23 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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