Russia-Iran: Drawing closer

Karam Said, Friday 24 Jan 2025

A strategic deal between Russia and Iran after their setback in Syria means a lot to both countries

Drawing closer

 

On 17 January, Russia and Iran signed a landmark Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty. The 47-article agreement strengthens cooperation in security and defence, though it does not include a commitment to mutual defence in the event of aggression against either of them. Related provisions call for increased cooperation and exchange of information and expertise between their intelligence and security agencies, development of military-technical cooperation, and closer coordination to enhance their national security and confront common threats. The treaty also calls for cooperation in countering unilateral sanctions targeting each party, including those imposed by countries outside their regions, and in supporting multilateral initiatives, eliminating the use of such “internationally illegal and unfriendly acts.”

Another section covers expanded cooperation in the oil and gas sector to enhance energy security. In addition, Moscow and Tehran had been discussing the possibility of a pipeline to transport Russian gas to Iran. This is seen as a move to diversify the market for Russian gas due to the decline in its exports to Europe against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Also to counteract sanctions, the agreement calls for transitioning to bilateral settlements in their national currencies and strengthening direct interbank cooperation.

The timing of this agreement is significant in that it coincides with rapid Middle East developments that have notched up pressures on both Iran and Russia. In addition to the setback they both sustained with the overthrow of the Al-Assad regime in Damascus in December, President Trump’s return to the White House is likely to bring a revival of his maximum pressure policy against Tehran. In addition, developments in Syria are indicative of both countries’ waning influence in the Middle East in favour of Turkey and Israel. Meanwhile, the Russian and Iranian economies are still strained by sanctions and other repercussions from the Ukrainian conflict on the one hand and Western-Iranian tensions on the other.

In addition to signing the landmark strategic partnership treaty in Moscow last Friday, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian held intensive talks to formulate a common vision on a range of vital issues. Undoubtedly, the rise to power of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus was a main topic in view of its impact on their respective interests whether in Damascus, regionally or further afield.  In their joint press conference on 17 December, the two leaders reiterated their commitment to a comprehensive settlement to the Syrian crisis determined by the Syrian people themselves and to supporting reconstruction efforts. They also underscored their continued collaboration in the fight against terrorism in Syria and the Middle East, as well as in Afghanistan and the Caucasus.

If Moscow and Tehran had long cooperated over Syria while backing the former regime in Damascus, they clearly feel the need to coordinate more closely on that and related issues following the regime change and evident rise of Western, Turkish and Israeli influence in Syria. Iran needs to strengthen and diversify its network of foreign relations in anticipation of increased pressures from Israel and the US-led West in the coming period, especially given the setbacks sustained by pro-Iranian forces in the region, most notably Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). Moscow for its part faces continued Western attempts to encircle it through the Caucasus and Central Asia, on top of the West’s continued support for the regime in Kyiv. To neutralise the gains made by their adversaries and counter predictable mounting pressures, Moscow and Tehran seek to forge a front of like-minded states. Their strategic partnership can therefore be seen as an important step in that direction, one that took on urgency with Trump’s immanent return to Washington and Washington’s plans to establish a “New Middle East,” which now appear more realisable with the recent change in Syria.

However, the two sides have other motives for concluding a strategic partnership treaty at this point. Moscow aims to ensure Iran’s continued military support for its war effort in Ukraine, especially the provision of Iranian-made drones. Tehran may also help rally political support for Moscow to offset its isolation from the West. Tehran, in exchange, seeks to secure Russian support against Western-Israeli moves against it. While the strategic partnership is not a mutual defence pact like NATO, Russia could support Iran through joint training manoeuvres, intelligence exchanges or military technology assistance, as well as politically by, for example, using its veto in the Security Council against Western moves to increase sanctions on Iran. Perhaps Tehran is also counting on Russian support for steps it might take to regain its regional influence or counteract attempts on the part of Israel and its Western backers to vilify Iran and build up regional pressures against it.

The Russian-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty is likely to sharpen already severe tensions between these countries and the West. Officials in Washington and other NATO countries have expressed concern over the increasingly close relations between Tehran and Moscow, and the US may consider measures to counteract the effects of the partnership. If Russian and Iranian leaders factored in anticipated reactions their partnership might trigger, they undoubtedly concluded that the prospective benefits would outweigh the disadvantages.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 23 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

Short link: