Gaza: Hope and despair

Dina Ezzat , Tuesday 21 Jan 2025

Uncertainty lies beyond the start of the fragile ceasefire, not least in terms of how to uphold the truce and begin reconstruction of the devastated Strip.

photo: AFP

“The rejoicing we have seen on TV screens since Monday is about the end of Israeli shelling and the hope that the war is not coming back, but what Gazans face next will be very tough,” said a worker from the Egyptian Red Crescent (ERC) who is contributing to the massive aid operation initiated this week to help more than a million repeatedly displaced Palestinians.

Under the ceasefire deal brokered earlier in the week, the return of Palestinians to what remains of their homes in the north will be a phased process. It has already begun, with the first returnees making the journey on foot following security screenings managed by the lead brokers of the deal, Egypt and Qatar. After a week, Gazans should be allowed to drive back to the north, again following security checks that have been negotiated in detail with Israel.

“Think of the length of the walk for people who have suffered hunger, illness, injuries, and losses for 15 months,” said the ERC worker. “We are talking about people walking through rubble amid dead bodies that have not been recovered due to aggressive Israeli shelling.”

 According to an informed Egyptian source, the humanitarian ordeal facing Gazans is just one part of a much more complicated situation.

“It is not easy at all. Everything is at risk, literally,” he said. He argued that the initial phase of the ceasefire that allowed for the release of three Israeli hostages in return for an end to Israeli hostilities and the release of 96 prisoners is “a testing point”.

 “We are taking it one step at a time and hoping things will continue in the right direction.”

 Sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly after the ceasefire went into effect said there are also no guarantees for the continued entry of aid convoys.

 On Monday, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher highlighted the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza following the ceasefire on the UN website.

“As the ceasefire entered into force today, humanitarian aid moved into Gaza as part of a prepared surge to increase our support to survivors. More than 630 trucks with humanitarian aid entered Gaza today, with at least 300 of them going to the north.”

Acknowledging the challenges facing the delivery of aid, Fletcher stressed the importance of the safety of civilians and aid workers.

The ceasefire deal stipulates the entry of 600 trucks daily through agreed entry points and with Israeli security clearance. In Cairo, officials are worried that at some point Israel could decide to slow down the delivery process or even suspend it, at least temporarily, a possibility they attribute to uncertainty over the intentions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu whose political coalition has been challenged by the ceasefire deal which Netanyahu’s extreme-right partners reject.

According to an Egyptian diplomatic source, Netanyahu was forced to agree to the deal by the pressure put on him by US President Donald Trump ahead of Monday’s presidential inauguration. But Netanyahu’s calculations remain unclear, especially after the resignation on Sunday of Itmar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, in protest at the deal, and the threats of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to resign if Netanyahu fully stops the war.

Cairo sources agree that Netanyahu might resort to political theatrics to keep his coalition from falling apart and thus avoid going to the polls before his mandate ends in autumn next year.

Egypt, they say, is constantly engaging with the Israelis. Cairo has hosted several meetings since the ceasefire came into effect, the agendas of which have ranged over multiple issues, covering the operation of the Rafah border crossing, security monitoring of the borders — including the Philadelphi Corridor — and inside the Strip, and the next list of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be released.

While differences need to be ironed out on each of these topics, the sources say the first phase of the ceasefire deal is not the worst of Egypt’s worries. The real concerns focus on the next two phases.

Under the ceasefire deal, all fighting should be suspended for 42 days, during which Israeli forces will withdraw from cities while maintaining a presence in buffer zones. But when it comes to the second and third stages, however, neither timelines, nor mechanisms of operation, have been defined in any detail.

The second stage should see another prisoner swap deal, though sources are unclear whether or not this will involve all of the remaining Israeli hostages, or how many Palestinian prisoners will be released.

The fate of the Palestinian prisoners — Marwan Barghouti, Ahmed Barghouti and Ahmed Saadat, of Fatah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — that Hamas insists should be included in the swap remains subject to discussion.

According to one informed Egyptian source, the issue is not just about what Israel wants — they certainly will not be allowed to return to the West Bank — but also about what the Palestinian Authority wants, given that Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is resisting any suggestion they return to Gaza, saying their presence in the Strip will undermine PA attempts to stabilise the situation there.

Opening the Rafah Crossing to allow for the evacuation of Palestinians who need medical treatment is also proving difficult. According to Egyptian sources, this is not an easy matter to regulate. Egypt insists that it will only operate the crossing if the Gazan side is managed by the Palestinians, while Israel is determined that Hamas will have no say in any aspect of the administration of Gaza and Abbas has refused all the proposals put forward till now.

Palestinian delegations are expected in Cairo in the next few days to address the problem. Cairo is also engaging with the US and EU, with the latter expected to play a significant role in the security management of the crossing and the security clearance of Palestinians exiting Rafah.

The reconstruction of Gaza and the exchange of bodies of the dead, including senior Hamas figures and Israeli soldiers, are scheduled for the third stage. Sources say that both remain contentious, with Israel expected to place difficulties in the way of reconstruction, possibly for the next two to three years, and drag its feet over the return of the bodies of Hamas leaders like Yahya Sinwar who was killed during an Israeli attack last October.

While Egyptian sources underline that the fate of the first phase of the ceasefire is not necessarily an indicator of when or how the next two phases will go, they do add that for now the most important thing is for hostilities not to pick up and for food, medicine, and caravan shelters to be allowed in Gaza.

 


* A version of this article appears in print in the 23 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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