According to the ceasefire and hostage-exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas that was announced on 15 January and went into effect on 19 January, the first phase of the agreement should last 42 days, and the second, consisting of discussions between Israel and Hamas through the three mediators of the US, Egypt, and Qatar, should begin on the 16th day of the first phase in Qatar.
Israel and Hamas are supposed to discuss a permanent ceasefire in the second phase of the agreement, together with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of all the remaining hostages.
However, there have been questions as to whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to commit to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza lest his ruling coalition loses its majority in the Knesset after the threats of his Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who wants to continue the war in Gaza until Hamas is completely defeated and to re-occupy the Gaza Strip.
Even so, Netanyahu cannot scuttle the ceasefire agreement in case US President Donald Trump believes it is important to implement it in its entirety.
Trump has invited Netanyahu to the White House for a visit scheduled for 4 February. He is the first foreign guest to meet the new US president in Washington since his inauguration on 20 January. While I am writing this article two days before this visit and before the results of the meetings between the two leaders are known, I would argue that the talks will centre around three major regional questions.
The first and most immediate is ending the war in Gaza and exploring various scenarios concerning who will administer it after the Israeli forces withdraw from the Strip. Both the Americans and the Israelis have rejected any role for Hamas in governing the Gaza Strip. Once the war is over, there will need to be an agreement on who will be in charge in Gaza, let alone who will shoulder the responsibilities for the massive reconstruction efforts that will also need to be carried out.
In the various post-war scenarios that have been presented for Gaza, Egypt has been the only country that has recognised a role for Hamas. Egypt has realised that regardless of whether we support or oppose Hamas, the latter definitely has a role to play. According to the Egyptian mediation two months ago, both Hamas and Fatah have agreed on the formation of a “social support committee” that will be entrusted with governing and providing security in the Strip. The Trump administration has opposed any role for Hamas in running the Gaza Strip in the future.
Before receiving Netanyahu in Washington, Trump spoke with Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi by telephone on 1 February. According to both the White House and the Egyptian Presidency, the two leaders stressed the importance of the ceasefire agreement holding as well as of working together to achieve a peace in the Middle East that would include the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Trump invited his Egyptian counterpart to meet him at the White House. President Al-Sisi extended an invitation to President Trump to participate in the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) that has been scheduled for July.
The call was made after Trump asked Egypt and Jordan on three occasions since the beginning of his second term as US president last month to receive Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, whether for a short-term or long-term stay in Egypt.
Such requests have raised the alarm and fears that what Trump is talking about is nothing other than the age-old Israeli scheme to transfer the Palestinian people out of the lands of their ancestors – in other words to uproot them – and to finish for good the historic question of the Palestinian refugees in violation of UN General Assembly Resolution 194 adopted on 11 December 1948 under the heading of “Palestine: Progress Report of the United Nations Mediator.”
The resolution says that Palestinian “refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbours should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date, and that compensation should be paid for the property of those choosing not to return and for loss of or damage to property which, under principles of international law or equity, should be made good by the governments or authorities responsible.”
In a joint press conference with visiting Kenyan President William Roto on 29 January, President Al-Sisi outlined the Egyptian position in this regard, stressing that Egypt would not be part of inflicting another “injustice” on the Palestinians similar to what happened to the Palestinian refugees in the Nakba of 1948 when Israeli armed gangs chased them under fire and during a reign of a deliberate terror from their homes and the homes of their ancestors.
President Al-Sisi’s remarks have been enthusiastically received by Egyptians from all walks of life. The Egyptian position also received much-needed Arab support at the Cairo meeting of the Arab Ministerial Follow-Up Committee, consisting of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the Arab League, last week that called for cooperating with the US in reaching a peaceful solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and rejecting any transfer of the Palestinians from Occupied Palestine.
However, developments in the Middle East in the near future will likely be challenging, and Egypt, the Arabs, and the Palestinians will have to close ranks to oppose and withstand expected pressures from the White House to go along with Israeli plans to annex the West Bank and re-occupy Gaza.
Such plans have been put forward by the extreme right in Israel on various occasions, most recently on 27 January by Smotrich, who said he would be elaborating a plan with Netanyahu to “encourage” the Palestinians in Gaza to leave their land and homes “voluntarily.”
The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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