Hizbullah launched a drone towards northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire last week, though Israeli Air Defences were able to intercept it without the need to activate warning sirens. The Israeli Occupation Forces said that the drone was intended to gather intelligence on its troops operating in the area.
Before the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and Israel and Lebanon was signed, Israeli Air Defences struggled to monitor and track such drones. Known as “hudhood,” they were famous for their ability to collect information for long periods.
However, the situation now is completely different due to the presence of Israeli Army units on Mount Hermon in neighbouring Syria. Their presence improves radar and electro-optical coverage of low-lying areas and acts as an early warning hub, providing defence systems with enough time to react appropriately.
But last week’s incident is an important indicator that it will be difficult to completely destroy Hizbullah’s arsenal of weapons. The reason is simple: if the group’s large-sized precision ballistic missiles and their launchers are destroyed, Hizbullah still has other missiles that may not be as accurate, but that are easy to manufacture, install, and launch. The same applies to suicide and reconnaissance drones.
According to the Israeli website Ynetnews, “the commander of the Israeli northern region, Uri Gordin, said that any response from Hizbullah would be met with a strong move leading to the elimination of its leaders.”
Additionaly Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened on Sunday that Hizbullah would pay a “very heavy price” if it continued to launch drones at Israel despite the ceasefire deal, according to the Times of Israel.
There is no doubt that the current situation makes Hizbullah vulnerable, not only because of Israeli attacks to neutralise its leaders and destroy its military arsenal and infrastructure in Southern Lebanon, but also because of efforts to cut off its logistical supply route from Syria.
The Transitional Government of Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa is actively chasing arms smugglers on the border between Syria and Lebanon and is cooperating with the Lebanese Army on this issue.
Acting through officials in the region, the US Trump administration has conveyed clear messages to both Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun that Hizbullah should not be part of the next government in Lebanon, not only by blocking its way to obtaining the Ministry of Finance, but also by preventing its participation in the government as a whole, according to Reuters.
Such efforts are aimed at continuing to weaken Hizbullah in a way that will make it difficult for it to rearm and raise finance. Hizbullah, however, has other options.
According to the Wall Street Journal, quoting an unspecified US defence official, “Israel submitted a complaint to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire committee, claiming that Iranian envoys are delivering ‘tens of millions of dollars in cash’ to the Rafik Al-Hariri International Airport in Beirut to fund the revival of Hizbullah.”
In parallel with the political transformations inside Lebanon, the new president, former brigadier-general Joseph Aoun, a former commander of the Lebanese Army, is pursuing a new policy that involves dropping the term “resistance,” the usual nickname for Hizbullah, and confining arms to the Lebanese Army, making it the only force responsible for protecting national sovereignty.
The policy includes opening up to both the East and the West in order to rebuild the Lebanese state and to find the political balance required for this to happen.
One of the main goals of the ceasefire with Israel is to support the Lebanese Army so that it can deploy 10,000 personnel in Southern Lebanon. The United States announced last month that it was going to support Lebanon with $117 million, and France also provided $108 million last October.
However, despite those efforts, the Israeli government submitted a request to the US president to extend the presence of its troops in Lebanon until 18 February, on the pretext that the Lebanese Army cannot deploy properly to secure the south.
According to Reuters, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the Israeli military’s withdrawal process from Lebanon was “contingent on the Lebanese Army deploying in Southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement, while Hizbullah withdraws beyond the Litani River.”
“Since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by the Lebanese state, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States,” the statement concluded.
The Israeli Army has now withdrawn from the southwest of Lebanon, but this was done irregularly. Israeli troops have been leaving villages to be entered by the Lebanese Army but then returning to them again or advancing north towards the Litani River instead of withdrawing south.
According to the Lebanese Army, last Saturday military units were deployed in the village of Aitaroun in Bint Jbeil in the central sector and other border areas in the southern Litani region of Lebanon in coordination with the five-party committee supervising the ceasefire agreement. The deployment occurred amid continued Israeli attacks, including the burning of houses in places such as Aitaroun and Adeisa in Marjayoun.
Additionally, there were two raids on teams participating in the recovery of the bodies of martyrs in Taybah in Marjayoun.
Despite the irresponsible Israeli actions, the Lebanese Army maintained restraint and did not engage with the Israeli Army or support Hizbullah. Instead, it is dismantling and destroying Hizbullah’s former positions and reestablishing infrastructure after the destruction caused by the Israeli forces.
The current situation in Lebanon is becoming more complex because Iran is not abandoning Hizbullah despite its own economic problems. Iran is refinancing Hizbullah to restore its position within Lebanese society by providing compensation to people who have suffered from the destruction of their homes and by avoiding a collision with the Lebanese Army.
There are fears of Hizbullah starting its operations once again from Lebanon. It may not have sophisticated weapons, but drones and locally manufactured short-range missiles, or even special forces raids, would be enough to threaten Israeli forces south of the Litani River.
Bearing in mind the Secretary General of the Lebanese Hizbullah Naim Qassem’s confirmation on Saturday that the decision of the “resistance is not linked to a specific schedule,” noting that military actions may resume before the expiration of the truce period set at 60 days
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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