Egypt’s deterrent power in the Middle East

Mina Adel, Wednesday 5 Feb 2025

The deterrent power of Egypt’s military should be a source of comfort to all who value stability in the Middle East.

Egypt’s deterrent power in the Middle East

 

“Why does [Egypt] need all these submarines and tanks? After 7 October, alarm bells should be raised. We must ask the United States why Egypt requires all this equipment,” Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said last week, according to the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post.

His remarks marked the first time a senior Israeli official has raised concerns about Egypt’s military strength. The statements completely oppose the opinion of the Israeli military leadership, which does not oppose Egypt’s military expansion as it makes Israel’s border with Egypt more stable than any of its other borders.

In an interview with the Israeli newspaper The Times of Israel last month, Colonel Shemer Raviv, commander of the Paran Regional Brigade on the Israel-Egypt border, said that if the “Israeli Defence Force” chief of staff is asked about the different fronts of the war that Israel has been fighting with Hamas in Gaza and in Lebanon, he would say that Israel is fighting on seven fronts with the Egyptian-Israeli border not counted.

 “Right now it is coordinated, right now it is stable. I have a dialogue with my counterparts on the other side,” Raviv said of the Egyptian-Israeli border.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, Israel’s Shin Bet and the Egyptian authorities have reviewed and approved each person in advance among the 50 sick or wounded Palestinians who have exited Gaza via the Rafah Crossing to Egypt for treatment.

The disagreement between the Israeli military and the country’s politicians over Egypt’s military build-up can therefore have only one explanation: the 7 October trauma.

This trauma is historically associated with military operations against Israel, which always reminds it of its military failures on the battlefield. Despite Israel’s strategies to maintain technical and armed superiority over its opponents, these memories persist. This trauma is historically associated with military operations against Israel in October, which always reminds it of its military failures on the battlefield. Despite Israel’s strategies to maintain technical and armed superiority over its opponents, these memories persist.

The Israeli political leadership does not understand the concept of deterrence or the idea that possessing weapons is not necessarily for attacking other people, but rather should be seen as a stern warning in case of external assault. This can be understood because Israel lost its bet on the deterrence factor precisely after Hamas dared to attack it.

Former US president Ronald Reagan described deterrence as follows: “The most fundamental paradox is that if we’re never to use force, we must be prepared to use it and to use it successfully. We don’t maintain a strong military force to conquer or coerce others. The purpose of our military is straightforward — we want to prevent war,” he said.

US academic Thomas Schelling also wrote that “deterrence is the process of influencing the enemy’s decision-making calculus by posing credible threats of unacceptable consequences.”

Daron also made another point, saying that “they [Egypt] spend hundreds of millions of dollars on modern military equipment every year, yet they have no threats on their borders.”

This is another indication of Israeli unreality, because in fact the Middle East is currently experiencing the most unstable times it has seen since 2011, culminating in the events of 7 October 2023. There is also instability in most of Egypt’s neighbouring countries, including Libya, Sudan, and Gaza.

Daron’s reference to combat units such as “tanks and submarines” is incomprehensible because the Egyptian army is historically and currently one of the most powerful in the world, and it has always possessed these types of weapons.

What has been happening over the past two decades is merely the development of the Egyptian military arsenal in proportion to current and future threats, according to a disciplined strategy to ensure Egyptian national security.

Egypt is the most important partner of NATO and the European countries in efforts to continue the peace process in the Middle East. Egypt remains the primary supporter and guarantor of the agreements and negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis.

The current ceasefire agreement, sponsored by Egypt and Qatar, aims to recover the hostages that Israel failed to recover by force after the killing of 47,000 Palestinians, the wounding of many others, and the destruction of infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.

In addition to hosting displaced people from various Arab countries fleeing wars and integrating them into society as citizens, Egypt is working hard to reduce illegal immigration to Europe. These efforts highlight its role in maintaining regional security through its security services and army, with both of which requiring constant support.

It is for this reason that the Trump administration excluded Egypt and Israel from its recent decision to stop military assistance abroad.

Israel is now reaping the consequences of its long-term strategy of dealing with the Arab countries in isolation and insisting on possessing excessive force instead of finding diplomatic solutions that will guarantee stability.


* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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