In a major turnaround in US-Russian diplomatic ties, high-level talks are continuing in Riyadh today between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
This is the first diplomatic inroad of its kind since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The primary aim of the talks is to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, and, according to statements on both sides, to “reset” and resume ties between the two countries.
They are also intended to pave the way for a possible upcoming summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
After the first closed session of the talks, closed after four and a half hours, the US State Department announced that both sides had agreed to appoint “high level teams” to seek to end the war and establish a diplomatic channel to resolve bilateral issues.
The meetings were attended by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Saudi National Security Adviser Mosaad bin Mohamed Al Aiban. They were attended on the American side by US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, and on the Russian side by Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy advisor.
After the end of the first closed session, Ushakov said the talks were “very good and covered all topics” but added that “it is difficult to say that the positions of each side are in total agreement.”
The choice of Saudi Arabia as a venue for the talks and a possible presidential summit between the two countries was due to the fact that, as expressed by both Trump and Putin, it was “suitable” for the purpose.
Saudi Arabia has longstanding strategic ties with the US, with both countries positioning themselves for mutual trade and investment. Riyadh, after a period of strained relations with Moscow primarily regarding tensions in Syria, has since 2017 made inroads in diplomatic and trade-related ties with Russia.
While in Riyadh, Rubio discussed with Saudi officials Trump’s proposed evacuation plan for Gaza, which Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries object to and are now offering alternatives for a day after plan.
The US-Russia talks took place as closed sessions, and no set agenda was announced to the press.
They came on the back of the Munich Security Conference held from 12 to 14 February. Trump announced on his Truth Social on 12 February that he had made a telephone call to Putin agreeing to meet him in Riyadh. This came as a bombshell at the meeting, upending Europe’s defence policies which primarily see Putin as making war and expansion a cornerstone of his policy in Europe.
Fears are rising in Europe that Trump will seek a deal with Putin that will give in to many of the latter’s demands.
At the Munich Conference, the European countries were also faced with statements by Rubio that were critical of their domestic policies and made allegations that they were “undemocratic.”
At NATO Headquarters in Brussels this week, US Defence Secretary Mark Hegseth made statements to the effect that the US would no longer continue to financially support Europe’s defence through NATO and that Europe was in effect “on its own.”
These developments led European commentators to label the shifts in US policy “the end of the [post-World War II] transatlantic alliance,” by means of which the US had been the prime guarantor of security for Europe through NATO and other pacts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is due to visit Riyadh tomorrow after making a stop in Ankara in which he will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Zelensky has said that he will not accept any deal that is the outcome of negotiations that exclude his country, although, given the current balance of power, his insistence on regaining all Ukrainian territory, primarily the Crimea, has shifted into one of being ready for a “political settlement.”
A hastily convened meeting held by the European countries in Paris on Monday failed to agree on a Plan B regarding Ukraine and saw divisions over sending troops there – a proposal made primarily by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer that did not elicit unanimous support among EU members.
Some, like Poland, ruled it out as a viable option. The Paris meeting was followed by another meeting held in Brussels on Tuesday.
The main challenge faced by the European countries now is how to provide a sustainable security blanket for Ukraine, given not only the cessation of US support, but also domestic economic conditions that will not allow the majority of European countries to shoulder the burden of a permanent security guarantee for Ukraine.
Despite being upended by the US, both Zelensky and the European countries see that for the time being at least US support is still needed to sustain longer-term security arrangements regarding Ukraine.
Until Trump and Putin meet, the broad outlines of their negotiations regarding Ukraine are clear. Trump wants to end the war, and along with it any financial burdens related to Europe’s security arrangements.
In the process, he might potentially negotiate a deal with Ukraine related to its rare earth mineral resources. The US would obtain half of these as payment for its previous security guarantees to Ukraine given by the former Biden administration.
This deal is stalled for now because Zelensky wants it to be tied to clear future security guarantees.
The Russians will not give up any territories gained during the conflict, now that they control more than 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, including the greater parts of the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Russia is seeking not only an end to the war in Ukraine on terms that will be acceptable to it, but also the lifting of the sanctions enforced upon it since. It is also seeking the full resumption of ties with the US and the promise of American investments in its economy.
For the US, the talks are aimed at a re-setting of relations and opening up new venues for trade cooperation in which security considerations follow commercial interests and not the opposite.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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