On 17 December last year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood on the summit of Mount Hermon in the Syrian Golan Heights and stated that “I was here 53 years ago with my soldiers on a Sayeret Matkal patrol. It’s the same place, but its importance to Israel’s security has only been reinforced in recent years, and especially in recent weeks with the dramatic events taking place below us here in Syria,” a reference to the fall of the former Syrian regime on 8 December.
He added that Israel would “determine the best arrangement that will guarantee our security”.
Two days later, satellite images analysed by many media outlets revealed that seven Israeli bases had been built in the area in just 11 days. Today, their number has reached nine. Two sites have been established in the town of Hadar, a site in the nature reserve of Jabatha Al-Khashab, one site is northeast of the town of Hamidiya, and two sites are on Mount Hermon.
There are further sites southwest of the Manatara Dam, on top of the Al-Homr Hill, and in the ruins of the city of Quneitra in a former government building.
Israel established the sites after air strikes on 8 December that neutralised more than 80 per cent of the capabilities of the former Syrian Army. As soon as the Syrian factions approached the city of Hader, the ground forces of the Israeli 210th Division advanced on six axes under the cover of the Israeli Air Force, which intensified its strikes on the positions of the Syrian Army in Daraa and Sweida over the following two days.
Israeli tanks began to control advanced points, and engineering vehicles entered behind them to establish defensive positions. This forced the Syrian factions to withdraw, having no intention to clash with the Israeli troops who were then only 20 km west of Damascus.
Maher Marwan, the newly appointed governor of Damascus, told the US radio station NPR that “our problem is not with Israel. We don’t want to get involved in anything that threatens the security of Israel or any other country.”
The Israeli plan is aimed at controlling strategically important locations in Syria to serve various purposes.
According to the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, “Israel is reportedly planning to establish a ‘control zone’ extending 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) into Syria and an intelligence ‘influence area’ reaching up to 60 km” that bypasses the Syrian capital Damascus to the east and the coasts of Lebanon to the west.
This influence area may refer to a base that includes both active and passive means of reconnaissance, such as radar and electro-optical systems that can detect air or ground threats in Syria and Lebanon from a sufficient distance to alert Israeli air-defence systems.
These systems are tasked with repelling targets that are typically difficult to intercept, such as low-flying drones or missiles. Additionally, the locations could be utilised to carry out attacks using multiple rocket systems that can launch tactical missiles up to 300 km.
Due to the importance of the bases for Israel, it was necessary to establish advanced secondary defensive bases below them to secure the roads. However, this needed some time, so the Israeli ground forces advanced to a distance further from the sites of the secondary bases to secure them.
Security operations were also conducted through small forces entering Syrian villages and demanding that the inhabitants disarm or hand over their weapons, a step that could have been intended to avoid any local resistance in the future.
Syrian villages and towns were not completely taken over but were instead surrounded, with their entrances and exits closed.
Israeli journalist Catherine Perez-Shakdam wrote in the Israeli newspaper The Times of Israel that “for Israel, this fractured landscape offers both challenges and opportunities. The hostility between HTS [Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham – the main militia group that took over Syria on 8 December] and Iranian proxies creates exploitable divisions, weakening the operational cohesion of its enemies.”
“Yet, the rise of HTS, with its ability to attract disaffected Sunni fighters and its territorial ambitions, poses a long-term threat that Israel cannot ignore.”
The issue of the Israeli distrust of HTS and the instability of the Syrian state has been used as a strong argument to justify Israel’s military intervention in Syria and its taking control of strategic locations. However, it may also be due to the Turkish influence that may soon expand in Syria to replace the Iranian and Russian influence in the country under the former regime.
According to Reuters, “Syria’s transitional President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected to discuss a joint defence pact in Ankara, including establishing Turkish airbases in central Syria and training for Syria’s new army.”
The presence of Turkish fighter jets in Syrian airspace, especially in the southern region, would be an obstacle for the Israeli Air Force in any future plans to attack Iran. This would require close coordination with Turkey and the US, adding to Turkey’s geopolitical influence in Syria and ensuring its presence at the negotiating table.
It seems that the decision of the Israeli military to move into Syrian territory and take control of strategic locations was a scenario expected by the Israeli government before the collapse of the former Syrian regime. The opportunity to take advantage of the collapse of the Syrian Army was decisive.
Under the previous US administration, Israel had to provide justifications for its use of various munitions and bombs. The situation has now become completely different, as under the Trump administration Israel does not need to make such efforts.
US President Donald Trump said at a rally in the US recently “I told Bibi [Netanyahu], ‘you do whatever you want.’” The most important thing Netanyahu now wants is to maintain a presence in Lebanon and at strategically important locations to secure the remaining radar gaps from the bases inside Syria, such as Tal Labbouneh, Jabal Blat, Tal Aaziyyeh, Tal Al-Awida, and Tal Al-Hammam.
These sites are distributed near the Litani River, near the coast, or near the Golan Heights.
There does not seem to be any intention on the part of the HTS to clash with the Israeli Army, as it is focused on consolidating the Syrian transitional government and re-establishing the Syrian Army. This is being rebuilt by merging the armed factions and continuing security operations to pursue the remnants of the former Syrian Army and find political solutions with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
We do not want war with Israel or any other country. We told Israel to stop, and if it continues, we will apply pressure,” Al-Sharaa has said.
Political analyst and international affairs expert at the US network CNN Barak Ravid said that “Israel has sent messages to HTS via third parties, warning them to stay away from the Israeli border, emphasising that any attempt to approach the border will lead to action from the Israeli Defence Forces [IDF].”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: