The future of the Gaza Strip remains uncertain as the first phase of the ceasefire agreement continues to face obstacles.
The primary reasons for the uncertainty include Israeli actions, such as failing to fully implement the agreement’s terms, most notably the refusal to allow the entry of medical supplies, mobile homes, and heavy machinery for rubble removal into the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, Israel is attempting to evade commitments in the crucial second phase of the negotiations by sending delegations without real authority. Egyptian and Qatari mediators are making significant efforts to convince Israel of the importance of maintaining the temporary ceasefire as a step towards a comprehensive truce.
Another key factor affecting Gaza’s future is US President Donald Trump’s insistence on implementing plans for forced displacement and his refusal to allow the Palestinians to remain in the Strip. This stance gives Israel room to evade pressures exerted by the mediators in the upcoming negotiations.
The Palestinian and Arab parties strongly oppose such plans, with Jordan rejecting Trump’s proposal to relocate some Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. During King Abdullah II’s recent visit to Washington, he affirmed that an alternative Arab plan exists to counter the US proposal.
However, the US administration appears determined to push forward with Trump’s vision of displacing the Palestinian population in Gaza. This was evident in remarks by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who visited Israel for the first time since taking office last week.
Rubio reaffirmed the US’ unwavering support for Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump “the greatest friend of Israel in White House history” during a joint press conference with Rubio.
He stated that Israel and the US have a strategic plan, including a timeline for unleashing “the gates of hell” if Hamas does not release all the Israeli detainees held in Gaza, without providing further details.
For his part, Rubio said he did not believe Israel has a better ally than Trump, adding that Trump has made it clear that Hamas cannot continue as a political and military force. He also demanded the release of all the Israeli detainees but did not address the timeline for the second phase of the Gaza agreement negotiations.
Political analyst Rassem Obeidat toldAl-Ahram Weekly that Rubio’s visit was part of efforts to turn Trump’s forced displacement rhetoric into actionable steps. He noted that Netanyahu is pressuring his coalition allies in government to turn this vision into reality.
Obeidat emphasised that statements by Rubio and Netanyahu confirm their lack of interest in the success or continuation of the negotiations aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire and completing prisoner exchanges. All the Israeli actions suggest an intention to undermine these efforts to pave the way for implementing Trump’s vision, he said.
He said that Israel’s refusal to allow humanitarian aid and mobile homes, its delay in implementing the remaining exchange deals from the first negotiation phase, and its ongoing attacks, such as the recent assassination of police officers in Rafah, reflect a clear desire to avoid reaching an agreement that would lead to a ceasefire.
On Monday, Netanyahu said that “as I promised, the day after the war in Gaza, there will be no Hamas and no Palestinian Authority. I am committed to President Trump’s plan to create another Gaza.”
Analysts are questioning whether it is possible to make progress in the light of these comments. Obeidat highlighted that the refusal to allow aid into Gaza through the Rafah Crossing with Egypt, despite agreements at the time of signing the ceasefire and Hamas’threats to halt the deal, signals Israel’s true intentions.
PERSONAL INTERESTS:Asignificant factor preventing an agreement that could end the war and determine Gaza’s future is Netanyahu’s personal interests.
Despite pressure from the former Biden administration, Netanyahu has resisted halting the war because he knows that if hostilities cease, he will be forced to resign and face investigative committeessimilar to those Israel established after past wars, such as in 1967 and 1973.
Regarding US policy indicators, Obeidat stated that Trump’s recent remarks clearly indicate that Washington envisions implementing a displacement plan for the Palestinian people. Thisposes a serious threat to Arab national security, he said.
Perhaps the most critical and unresolved issue concerning Gaza’s future is internal Palestinian divisions, however. Disagreements persist between Fatah and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) factions on one side and Hamas and Islamic Jihad on the other regarding the governance and control of Gaza.
Conflicting statements within Hamas have emerged during Egyptian-led efforts to draft an alternative Arab plan for Gaza’s future, countering Trump’s displacement proposals.
These internal divisions were evident when the Hamas delegation in Cairo appeared open to relinquishing civilian governance to entities proposed in the Egyptian plan. However, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan later stated that Hamas would treat any governing body in Gaza as an occupying force.
Hamdan’s remarks followed statements by Hamas Spokesman Hazem Qassem about Gaza’s post-war governance. Qassem indicated that Hamas was willing to consider administrative and political arrangements for the Strip.
Speaking to an Egyptian journalist, Qassem emphasised that Hamas does not necessarily have to be part of these arrangements, aiming to remove Israel’s pretext for resuming the war and facilitating genuine reconstruction. He also suggested that Saudi Arabia could play a significant role in shaping Gaza’s future.
Member of the Political Bureau of the Palestinian Liberation Front, a Palestinian faction, Mohamed Al-Tajsaid that the question regarding the future of the Gaza Strip is linked to the future of Hamasand whether it will remain an obstacle to any potential development in Gaza.
He noted that Hamas, which is practically rejected by the international community and seeks to remain in power, faces opposition from the Israeli Occupation, which views Hamas’ rule in Gaza as a security threat.
Al-Taj said that the Palestinian Authority (PA) is seeking to take control of the Gaza Strip, but the Israeli Occupation refuses this, particularly as no final agreement has been reached with Hamas. Meanwhile, the United States has proposed deploying Arab and Palestinian forces, with some Arab countries conditioning their involvement on a clear pathway towards a Palestinian state, political reforms, and internal Palestinian reconciliation.
He pointed to concerns that Hamas could interfere domestically and obstruct efforts to place Gaza under the administration of the PA, the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people under the umbrella of the PLO. This approach, he added, could receive support from the US, Europe, and the Arab states.
He stressed that Hamas must limit its role to political participation, without any influence over Gaza’s administration. The movement should transform itself into a political party and integrate under the umbrella of the PLO and the PA to ensure Gaza’s reconstruction and achieve a stable future for the territory.
THE PA:The Palestinian Authority has consistently asserted that Gaza’s future must be part of a unified Palestinian national framework, and it rejects any international initiatives aimed at separating the Strip from the West Bank.
PA officials insist that any future solution must ensure that Gaza remains under PA sovereignty as an integral part of an independent Palestinian state.
Fatah Spokesman Hussein Hamayel said that“Fatah will not accept any international or regional arrangements that seek to reshape the Palestinian landscape outside the framework of the PLO, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.”
Fatah and the PA insist that Gaza’s future must align with the broader Palestinian national project. They reject any attempts to separate the Strip from the West Bank or establish an independent entity serving Israeli interests.
Palestinian and Arab leaders continue to strongly oppose US and Israeli plans for the forced displacement of Gazans. Jordan has firmly rejected any attempt to relocate Palestinians to its territory, insisting that a solution must be found within the framework of an independent Palestinian state.
The Arab League has also issued statements rejecting any attempts to alter Gaza’s demographic structure.
Hamas Political Bureau member Khalil Al-Hayya, warned that any efforts to impose forced displacement on Gaza’s residents would fail, asserting that the Palestinians are determined to remain on their land.
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) leader Maher Al-Taherdescribed the US-Israeli plan as an attempt to eliminate the Palestinian cause. He called for escalating resistance against the occupation and reinforcing Palestinian national unity to thwart such schemes.
The Palestinian leadership in Ramallah has categorically rejected any US-backed displacement plans, urging the international community to intervene and stop these policies, which constitute blatant violations of international law.
Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia have also taken firm stances against any initiatives aimed at displacing the Palestinians from Gaza. King Abdullah II of Jordan has warned of the serious consequences such plans could have on regional security. Saudi Arabia has pledged to support Gaza’s reconstruction under an integrated Arab strategy, opposing any forced displacement or imposed solutions.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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