Ahead of a limited Arab meeting to discuss the future of Gaza, scheduled to open on Friday in the Saudi capital Riyadh, Egypt has pushed ahead with the drafting of a plan to reconstruct Gaza following the devastating damage caused by Israel’s 15-month war, and has continued to lobby for support.
An informed political source who spoke on Monday said the final draft should be ready for the Riyadh meeting. It is the result, he added, of consultations that included the five participants in the limited Arab meeting and the rest of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The meeting was set for Thursday, with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE initially scheduled to attend, but was then delayed for 24 hours to allow for more attendees and more time for the drafting of the plan. President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi is scheduled to fly to the Saudi capital on Thursday.
The Riyadh meeting was supposed to be followed by an emergency Arab summit to be hosted by Egypt on 27 February, but according to a statement by the Arab League Assistant Secretary-General the summit was delayed until 4 March.
The political source said the “rescheduling” relates “partially” to the need for further consultations among Arab capitals about some elements of the Egyptian plan. The plan is supposed to be presented to Washington as the “collective Arab” answer to the future of Gaza, with an eye on the security of Israel away from the displacement of at least half of the population of Gaza to accommodate the security demands of Israel’s extreme-right government.
According to official Egyptian sources, the blueprint that Cairo is drafting has two phases. The first will last between 10 and 20 years. The second relates to a long-term two-state solution.
The first phase forms the core of the plan, say sources, and it has yet to secure the full support of Arab capitals. It involves the complete suspension of any administrative, political, or resistance roles for Hamas and other militant resistance movements, and a Gulf-funded reconstruction process that does not require the displacement of citizens from the Strip. A third element relates to the administrative and security management of Gaza and the continued execution of requirements under the ceasefire deal with Israel, while the fourth element relates to Israeli security demands and the wider Gazan economy.
Hamas, say sources, is willing to observe a long-term truce but unwilling to agree to be fully excluded from the political scene in Gaza or commit to be scrutinised for demilitarisation.
In press statements this week, Osama Hamdan, a leading Hamas figure, said the militant Islamic resistance movement would not make concessions in return for the reconstruction of Gaza and that it is not the kind of trade-off that the people of Gaza or the resistance factions could accept. Other Hamas figures have suggested that the maximum Hamas will agree is to temporarily disengage from the administrative and security management of Gaza.
Hamas has been in full control of Gaza since 2007, when the Ramallah-based, Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority (PA) attempted to ignore the outcome of the 2006 parliamentary elections that gave Hamas a massive victory in the Strip. Today, sources say, Hamas is willing to agree that a non-partisan committee from Gaza take over administrative responsibilities for Gaza during the first phase of the Egyptian plan but is not willing to hand the Strip over to the PA.
This position is supported by Qatar which sees it as unfeasible to fully exclude Hamas. According to the Qatari vision, while it is possible to re-work Hamas and integrate it under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), it is unrealistic to ask Hamas to exit the scene.
Qatar has been hosting meetings with the aim of including Hamas in the PLO, but Fatah, headed by PA Chair Mahmoud Abbas, categorically opposes any scenario that does not include exclusive PA control. The PA position is supported by the UAE, which wants Hamas out of the picture.
PA officials insist that any future dispensation must ensure Gaza remains under PA sovereignty as an integral part of an independent Palestinian state.
“Fatah will not accept any international or regional arrangements that seek to reshape the Palestinian landscape outside the framework of the PLO, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people,” says Fatah Spokesperson Hussein Hamayel.
According to the same official sources, consultations are underway to find a format acceptable to all concerned parties, including Israel and the US, and avoid proposals made by US President Donald Trump earlier this month to displace around half of the population of Gaza. Egypt, the sources add, has been “engaging” Israel and the US on the plan as the best answer to “the rights of Palestinians and the concerns of Israel”.
Consensus is also needed on the other elements of the Egyptian proposal to provide an alternative to Trump’s displacement plan which all five sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly insist remains on the table despite opposition from Arab, regional, and world capitals.
This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Israel on the first leg of a Middle East tour that also includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, expressed support for the Trump plan. Palestinian Political analyst Rassem Obeidat told the Weekly that Rubio’s visit was part of the effort to turn Trump’s forced displacement rhetoric into actionable steps. He noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressuring his coalition allies in the government to turn Trump’s vision into reality.
In a joint press conference following his talks with Rubio, Netanyahu described Trump’s plan as a “bold vision” and said Israel and the US would work to make this plan “a reality”. Later, he said that he would not allow Hamas, or for that matter the PA, to take over Gaza. He added that he is committed to the execution of the Trump plan.
Obeidat said statements by Rubio and Netanyahu confirm their lack of interest in the success or continuation of negotiations to achieve a permanent ceasefire and complete the prisoner exchanges, and that Israel’s actions make clear its intention to undermine negotiations and pave the way to implementing Trump’s vision.
During their joint press conference, neither Rubio nor Netanyahu excluded the possibility of renewed Israeli attacks on Gaza that might include “opening the gates of hell” — as Trump himself threatened last week.
Egyptian official sources agree that one of the objectives of pushing ahead with Cairo’s plan for the future of Gaza is to spare the fragile ceasefire from collapse since any resumption of the war, they warn, will be accompanied by the forced exodus of Palestinians from the Strip.
Nermine Said, a researcher at the Palestine-Israel Studies Unit at the Egyptian Centre for Strategic Studies, says Israel’s military mobilisation along its border with Gaza suggests it is preparing for the collapse of the ceasefire agreement. It is a scenario that has been reinforced by fresh deliveries of bombs to Israel by the US, and aligns with Israel’s refusal to permit the entry of heavy machinery and mobile homes into Gaza under the humanitarian protocol of the truce.
Meanwhile, Israel is continuing operations against refugee camps in the West Bank, with Israeli officials, including cabinet member Bezalel Smotrich, threatening continued escalation and a possible “Gaza-like fate”. Smotrich said he would ask the Israeli cabinet to endorse the Trump plan.
According to one highly informed Egyptian political source, the writing is on the wall. “The extreme right in Israel, Netanyahu included, is planning to re-annex the West Bank and depopulate Gaza. This will be a disaster for Jordan and a huge crisis for Egypt.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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