While Israeli politicians are pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to release the Palestinian detainees as scheduled for the seventh exchange in the first phase of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, Israeli security officials have advised Netanyahu not to obstruct the release of the Palestinians because this could jeopardise the truce and the release of the remaining hostages.
Israel also appears to be manoeuvring to prolong the first phase of the ceasefire, as it sees the second phase of negotiations leading to the withdrawal of its forces from Gaza and the end of the war. This does not suit its calculations at a time when Hamas is unlikely to leave Gaza or agree to disarm. On the other hand, it has indicated that it would be flexible about relinquishing its civil responsibilities for administering the enclave.
It has been suggested that Israel might demand the release of more hostages before the end of the first stage of the ceasefire deal. However, this scenario is unlikely as its refusal to release the scheduled batch of Palestinian prisoners could be met by Hamas’ refusal to hand over the four bodies of hostages scheduled to be delivered to Israel on Thursday.
Up to now, Hamas has also demonstrated its flexibility regarding the hostage/prisoner exchanges. It agreed to release the six remaining live hostages all at once in the first phase, instead of in two batches. While unlikely, if Israel manages to extend the first phase, this will permit two additional exchanges. In addition, this would extend the phase into Ramadan, enabling Hamas to ensure that hostilities would not resume during the holy month.
The Israeli public is closely monitoring the exchanges and, according to some reports, there is a general sense in Israel that too many Palestinian prisoners are being released. A portion of the Israeli public is upset that their government is releasing persons they regard as terrorists. The Netanyahu government’s obstruction of the release of Palestinians caters to that segment of opinion.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is determined to keep his far-right ruling Coalition Government intact. The intensification of Israeli military operations in the West Bank has met with the approval of both military and political factions. Israeli Merkava tanks have been deployed in the Jenin Refugee Camp for the first time since the Second Palestinian Intifada. The aim is to displace large numbers of West Bank Palestinians, a process that accelerated after the bus bombings that Israel is now using as a pretext to maintain a permanent military presence in the West Bank.
The Israeli defence minister called up three main battalions and told them to prepare for a long stay in the West Bank, adding that tens of thousands of Palestinians who fled their homes would not be able to return.
The “Iron Wall,” as Israel’s current military aggression in the West Bank is called, has been in progress for over a month. While it might be keeping the Israeli Coalition Government together in the short run, the authorities are indifferent to the long-term consequences of what is, in fact, a brutal policy of collective punishment of the Palestinians mainly targeting civilians.
The murders and mass displacements in the West Bank, coming on top of Israel’s genocidal practices in Gaza, will further damage the country’s international reputation. Domestically, they are fuelling popular anger in the West Bank, which could explode into a third Intifada that the Palestinian Authority (PA) could not withstand.
This is all the more the case in view of the deteriorating condition of the PA security forces as a result of the US-Israeli collusion to bar US assistance from reaching the PA forces.
Weakening these forces creates a security gap that is being used as pretext to further plans for a protracted Israeli military presence in the West Bank. While the plan seems to be working, given the recent long-term deployment of three battalions, there are hitches. If, for example, fighting resumes in Gaza, Israel will be forced to withdraw the battalions and replace them with reserves, which would increase the economic and human pressures on it.
This brings us back to the ceasefire agreement. If Israel blocks the release of the Palestinian political prisoners, it will jettison the flexibility Hamas has indicated it will show in the second negotiating stage that would, in theory, lead to the release of all the remaining hostages in Gaza in exchange for the Israeli withdrawal and cessation of hostilities.
While Israel is clearly responsible for most of the obstruction, as many predicted it would be, it is hard to overlook Hamas’ role. Hamas’ staging of the scenes of the handovers of the Israeli hostages, with cameras broadcasting the process live, including the scene of one of the released hostages kissing the head of a Hamas militant, may have served domestic purposes.
However, Israel found them provocative and cited them as a reason for delaying the release of the Palestinian political prisoners.
Israel’s demands related to the disarmament of Hamas and its removal from Gaza may be the main cause of the collapse of the ceasefire, as Hamas leaders have made their position clear on this point. However, one might stand on this issue, it casts a shadow over the reconstruction of the Strip and the need to thwart the US-Israeli mass displacement plans of the Palestinian population.
The continued presence of Hamas in Gaza in its current form prevents life there from returning to normal and stops the reconstruction before it begins. Gaza would thus remain largely unfit for human inhabitation, even if some signs of life return, and the Ministry of Education has announced that the remaining schools will reopen for the first time since October 2024.
Only around 20 per cent of Gaza’s schools remain standing, so tents will be used for much of this purpose.
Israeli officials argue that Hamas’ flexibility is motivated by its desire for more heavy equipment to remove the rubble in the Strip. Israel is determined to restrict the entry of such machinery as much as possible until it becomes clear whether the US will support and even welcome a resumption of the fighting.
At present, however, the US Middle East envoy is pushing for the second phase of the negotiations under pressure from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators on the Israelis.
On the other hand, Israel does not appear reassured by the proposal made by US President Donald Trump to assert US control over Gaza. While the plan may be alluring from the Israeli perspective, as it would relieve it of having to deal with the catastrophic wreckage in the Strip, it might feel differently once the US moves in next door given Trump’s recent statements and executive orders.
Israel is also very conscious of the vast offshore petroleum wealth in the Eastern Mediterranean. US control over Gaza would deprive Israel of the resources it has been eyeing for itself.
Much to Israel’s alarm, there have been indications that the US might support the maritime demarcation between Gaza and Israel, as was reported by the Israel Hayom newspaper.
However, an even worse scenario for Israel would be if the US bid for Gaza failed and other countries were invited to assume responsibility for the Strip. The most likely candidates would be Qatar and Turkey. Their presence in Gaza would be a nightmare for Israel, perhaps even worse than the continued presence of Hamas.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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