It has been a week of intense, top level Arab consultations on what to do about Gaza, mostly behind closed doors.
Last Friday, seven Arab leaders met in Riyadh to discuss an Egyptian plan for the future of Gaza, covering reconstruction, management, and security.
Since then, the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have been exchanging views among themselves and with regional and international partners, including the US, on the best way to move Gaza beyond the horrific consequences of the 15-month Israeli war that caused so much death and destruction.
According to informed Egyptian sources, the Riyadh meeting did not produce an Arab consensus on an initial blueprint of the plan drafted by Egypt — following consultations with concerned Arab countries, especially Jordan — to bypass US President Donald Trump’s plan to displace Gazans and turn the Strip into a tourism hub.
Sources say some participants in the Riyadh summit were hesitant about committing to reconstruction before a full Hamas exit from the scene. Others argued that expecting Hamas to simply disappear is unrealistic. There were also differences over the details of the management and security of Gaza and the role of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority in Gaza that have still to be ironed out.
This leaves much work to be done to forge a collective Arab plan ahead of the Arab Summit that is scheduled to convene in Cairo on 4 March. But building consensus over an alternative to Trump’s plans to displace Gazans — mostly to Egypt and Jordan — is not the only uphill task facing Arab leaders.
The 4 March summit, already delayed from 27 February, now faces a much bigger task. The fate of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is increasingly at stake.
The ceasefire, which entered into effect on 19 January after much arm-twisting and pressure, seemed this week to be on the brink of collapse after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to suspend the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails to protest what his office said was the insulting way Hamas had managed the release of Israeli hostages.
According to the agreement facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the US, during the first phase Hamas and Israel would engage in six hostage/prisoner swaps under the watch of the International Red Cross. The latest was on Saturday. But the Hamas release of a video of two Israeli hostages pleading with the Israeli public to pressure Netanyahu to do what it takes to secure their release prompted an angry reaction from Netanyahu who decided to suspend the agreed release of over 600 Palestinian prisoners.
According to one source who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, concern over a possible collapse of the ceasefire has always existed, but it now looks more likely. The source said that the issue is not Hamas but the sense of empowerment that Netanyahu feels now he has almost unconditional support from Trump.
This week, Netanyahu threatened to resume attacks on Gaza, saying on Sunday: “We are ready to resume intense fighting at any moment, our operational plans are ready.”
For its part, Hamas has threatened not to continue with the planned hand-over of Israeli hostages if Israel does not honour the ceasefire agreement. Sources say Hamas has called on Cairo and Doha to intervene promptly to make sure that the deal works as planned.
The problem is that Netanyahu is less engaged with the mediators than with Washington, which is going the extra mile to accommodate his plans, not just for Gaza but also the West Bank where Israel this week emptied three major refugee camps and mobilised tanks for the first time since 2002.
For Jordan, which already hosts a large number of Palestinians, any exodus from the West Bank would be a nightmare.
The future of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the future of Gaza and now of the West Bank, will dominate the agenda of the 4 March Arab Summit. Other issues include what will happen to Hamas and other Islamist militant resistance groups, the future of the PA-controlled Palestine Liberation Organisation and the future of the PA itself if Israel decides to annex large parts of the West Bank with the blessings of the White House. Sources say that on every single issue work must be done if the summit is to issue a comprehensive and cohesive statement.
Meanwhile, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s 26 February visit to the region for consultations on Gaza was postponed. His trip comes after he was in the region as part of the delegation accompanying US Secretary-of-State Marco Rubio.
Witkoff will visit Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. According to sources, neither the displacement plan nor any alternative Arab plan will top his agenda. His focus, they say, will be on the Hamas/Israel ceasefire.
It is Witkoff, sources add, who is managing coordination between the US and Israel on matters relating to the ceasefire and the possibility of the resumption of Israeli attacks against Gaza.
In press statements made in Washington on Monday, Witkoff said his talks in the region will focus on maintaining the ceasefire and moving towards its second phase. A close ally of Netanyahu, Witkoff warned that the future of the ceasefire is dependent on Hamas exiting the scene, not just politically but “physically”.
“The way you square that circle is that Hamas has to go. They’ve got to leave… The negotiation will be around that,” Witkoff said. He added that Washington has some ideas on how to get this mission done but noted that “the devil is in the details.”
Egyptian sources say that prioritising the future of Hamas now does not help ongoing mediation to extend the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, supposed to expire early next month, until the end of March, which coincides with the end of Ramadan. It would be more realistic, they say, to talk about limiting the role of Hamas in the future of Gaza and a Hamas commitment to steer away from militant operations.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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