The previous article in this series discussed the sense of malaise prevailing in large parts of the Arab world today. This article presents an opposite set of feelings that can be found in some small parts of the region, primarily in the Arabian Peninsula.
Whether in the different Gulf Emirates or in Saudi Arabia, visitors to the Arabian Peninsula these days feel a sense of positive expectancy. Large sections of these societies, particularly young people, seem to be eager to grab the opportunities that are emerging in the economy and society and seem to expect the future to bring yet more opportunities.
This is not to say that there are not problems. Various challenges are on the horizon. There is a clear understanding that the basis upon which the Arabian Peninsula’s economies have been built – oil and gas revenues – are already on a long-term downward trajectory. There is a youth bulge but also generally much higher levels of good education per capita than in most other parts of the Arab world.
However, that youth bulge is far from bringing a youth dividend. Research and development and serious innovation are still very limited in Gulf societies, particularly if compared to the colossal investments that have been made over the past two decades in various economic sectors.
The politics of the region are stable, but there are underlying questions concerning domestic political economies. There is also the realisation that, amidst the progress and development and glamour of these societies, there is a major difference between being able to buy and import first-rate technologies and making and mastering them at home.
Nevertheless, despite the gravity of these issues, there is a prevailing sense in the Gulf societies of being able to confront these challenges, and, more importantly, to bring about a major evolution in the Gulf’s developmental path.
Wealth helps. Informed sources estimate that the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have around $4 trillion under active management, of which about half is in the coffers of their various sovereign wealth funds and the rest is in the hands of semi-state-controlled investment arms. This is in addition to internationally managed investment portfolios, built up over at least half a century since the first meteoric rise in oil prices following the 1973 War, which have enabled many key circles in the Gulf’s political economy to develop deep connections to the world’s leading investment groups.
This history, and the level of personal familiarity and trust that comes with decades of cooperation, give the Gulf’s leading political economy circles access to investment opportunities that are not only lucrative, but also are of major value in understanding important trends in politics, economics, and technological development.
This access, along with the existence over the past two decades of a number of assertive and highly ambitious leaders in different countries of the Arabian Peninsula who have surrounded themselves with advisers having world-class knowledge and experience, has meant that these countries have led transformative projects within their own societies as well as key programmes in the Arab world’s political economy as a whole.
Access to the world’s most advanced circles in economics, finance, and technology, and exposure to the world’s leading centres of the arts and culture has enabled a level of sophistication that is much higher than the norm in the Arab world. This has manifested itself not only in economic thinking and financial investing, but also in various other domains from geopolitical planning to marketing the countries abroad.
Surroundings affect the psyche. Whereas in the vast majority of the Arab world, wars, displacement, economic pressures, and outright deprivation have burdened the minds and subdued the souls of many, in large parts of the Arabian Peninsula plenitude and the exposure to world-class services, and also, importantly, ideas, have opened minds to new possibilities and led to a belief in society, the future, and oneself.
Almost certainly, these advancements and the mindset and feelings they have engendered will fuel the ambitions of some countries in the Gulf to go much farther than they have already gone. Amidst the economic pressures that the West is undergoing, some political, economic, and financial circles in the Arabian Peninsula will also manage to create valuable opportunities that will catapult their influence ever higher.
Some of the challenges highlighted above might be resolved as the societies of the Arabian Peninsula follow their upward developmental path. Others might fester. But irrespective of how these societies attend to the major opportunities and difficult challenges they face, their paths are increasingly diverging from those of the rest of the Arab world.
This is an important development. The Arab world has always had haves and have-nots. It has also always had different ways of living that were often opposed to each other. But the current situation is starker. There is a high-probability scenario that parts of the richest, and currently most advanced, region of the Arab world, the Arabian Peninsula, will head towards futures in which their links to the rest of the Arab world are tenuous.
This would return the Arab world to the situation it was in at the end of the 19th century before the rise of the initial forms of Arab nationalism and before the idea of a collective Arab identity took place. The next, and final article in this series will look at the implications of this situation for the Arab world in the future.
The writer is the author of Islamism: A History of Political Islam (2017) and Egypt on the Brink (2010).
* A version of this article appears in print in the 13 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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