Since his return to the White House in January 2025, Donald Trump has not merely revived his first-term foreign policy—he has radically transformed it. While his first presidency (2017–2021) was defined by disruption—breaking multilateral agreements, undermining alliances, and embracing transactionalism—his second term signals a profound shift toward ideological expansionism and coercive diplomacy. His foreign policy now reflects a structured effort to reorder global politics, shifting from isolationism to expansionism, embracing religious populism, and treating diplomacy as a zero-sum game.
During his first term, Trump withdrew from multilateral agreements, disengaged from international institutions, and questioned NATO’s value. His rhetoric suggested a focus on reducing America’s international commitments. However, his second-term foreign policy embraces expansionism—asserting American dominance and reshaping geopolitical realities. His revived ambitions, such as acquiring Greenland or reasserting U.S. control over the Panama Canal, signal a shift from disengagement to territorial assertiveness. In the Middle East, his “Gaza Reconstruction Plan” embodies this approach, reportedly advocating for the forced displacement of Palestinian populations to neighboring Arab countries.
A striking transformation in Trump’s second term is the deepening influence of religious populism. While his first presidency flirted with Christian nationalism through alliances with the evangelical right, his second term has fully embraced it as a guiding principle of foreign policy. His unwavering support for Israeli territorial expansion is now framed in religious terms, aligning U.S. policy with Christian Zionist beliefs. This shift marks a departure from previous administrations, which supported Israel primarily for strategic and electoral reasons.
Trump’s global outlook casts U.S. foreign policy as part of a broader civilizational struggle. His confrontation with China is no longer just about trade or security—it is framed as a battle between Christian America and atheist communism. This rhetoric has strengthened his ties with right-wing populist leaders worldwide, including Javier Milei in Argentina and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, who share his disdain for secular globalist norms. His second term has also seen an even harsher crackdown on migration, pressuring Mexico and Central American nations to adopt extreme anti-migration measures under threat of economic penalties.
If his first presidency was defined by transactionalism—treating alliances as financial burdens and military commitments as deals to be renegotiated—his second term takes this approach to an extreme. His new “coercive transactionalism” strips economic, military, and diplomatic engagements of strategic depth, reducing them to immediate material gain. One example is his approach to Ukraine. While his first administration was accused of leveraging military aid for political gains, his second term openly conditions assistance on economic returns, demanding privileged access to Ukraine’s rare mineral resources in exchange for U.S. support.
Trade relations with Canada and Mexico have deteriorated as Trump re-imposes tariffs on key industries, disregarding prior agreements. His handling of U.S.-China relations has escalated into full-scale confrontation, imposing new sanctions, restricting Chinese access to Western technology, and accelerating U.S. economic decoupling from China. Meanwhile, his administration has sought to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, offering Putin economic and strategic incentives to weaken the China-Russia alliance—an ambitious gamble that assumes Putin is willing to compromise long-term Russian interests for short-term U.S. gains.
The implications of Trump’s second-term doctrine are profound. If his first term was about disrupting the international system, his second term is about reconstructing it on his terms. The post-World War II global order—built on multilateral cooperation, economic integration, and institutional stability—is being systematically dismantled in favor of a world defined by nationalist power struggles, economic coercion, and ideological conflicts.
The United States is no longer a stabilizing force in global politics but one of its greatest disruptors. Trump’s doctrine 2.0 has replaced America’s traditional role with a vision of raw power politics, where might makes right, alliances are disposable, and diplomacy is reduced to coercive transactions.
This raises fundamental questions about the future of global stability. Can multilateralism endure in a world where the most powerful nation actively undermines it? Will Trump’s radical approach redefine U.S. foreign policy for years to come, or will it be an aberration that future administrations reverse? More critically, how will America’s allies navigate this unprecedented shift?
The unpredictability of Trump’s second-term policies has injected a deep sense of uncertainty into international relations, forcing traditional partners to reconsider their long-term strategic alignments. The erosion of trust in American commitments has already prompted European allies to explore greater defense autonomy.
This uncertainty is not just reshaping alliances but also emboldening rival powers like China and Russia to challenge U.S. influence more aggressively. If Trump’s approach continues, Washington may find itself not only isolated but also struggling to maintain the very global leadership it once sought to redefine. One thing is certain: the world before 2025 no longer exists.
* The writer is a professor of politcal science, New Giza University.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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