After nearly two years of fierce and relentless Civil War, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) finally drove the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from the Republican Palace in Khartoum. It also regained other parts of the capital and large swathes of the country. Given its symbolic significance, the recapture of the Republican Palace boosted the SAF’s morale and fired their resolve to fight until the RSF is defeated completely. However, just as SAF forces celebrated their triumphal re-entry into the Republican Palace, four members of the Sudanese television crew filming the event and several soldiers were killed by an RSF drone strike, signalling that the battle was not quite over.
Meanwhile, to the west of the capital, the RSF seized the town of Malha, northeast of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State. The strategically located Malha was a major SAF stronghold. Such shifts in territorial control underscore the complexities of the battlefield and remind us not to be too hasty in concluding that the war is nearing an end.
Confident that it has regained the initiative, SAF command refuses to negotiate with the RSF. “The Armed Forces of Sudan and the Sudanese people are firm in their stance,” SAF Commander General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan said. “They are resolved to defeat the insurrection. There will be no negotiating until after the rebellion is quashed and the rebels are gathered into camps to surrender their weapons.”
RSF leaders, for their part, do not see the loss of the Republican Palace as a sign of defeat. “The RSF will continue to fight until we achieve total victory,” vowed Al-Basha Tabiq, adviser to RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti. The RSF still controls large areas of Darfur and other states, as well as Khartoum Airport and the southern districts of the capital. It also still mounts drone strikes against areas from which it has retreated or has not yet targeted to demonstrate its continued presence and to disrupt SNF advances.
The RSF has been bolstered by its recently formalised alliance with some militia and political party factions. Members include the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North (SPLM-N), led by Abdelaziz Al-Hilu; the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), led by Suliman Sandal; the Sudan Liberation Movement – Transitional Council (SLM-TC) led by Al-Hadi Idris, and the Sudan Liberation Forces Gathering (SLFG), led by Al-Tahir Hajar. Meeting in Nairobi on 22 February, they signed a charter to establish a parallel government in Sudan called the Government of Peace and Unity.
Former UN envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, believes that SAF’s successive military advances will eventually force the RSF to retreat to its stronghold in Darfur in western Sudan. Describing the recapture of the Republican Palace as a “major military and political victory,” he predicted that the SAF will soon drive the RSF from the rest of the capital and surrounding areas. However, he stressed that this progress does not herald the end of the war, as the RSF still controls considerable parts of Darfur and other regions.
The repercussions of the war in Sudan continue to spill over into its neighbours, sometimes sparking escalating tensions. Recently the Assistant Commander of the Sudanese Army Lieutenant General Yasser Al-Atta, threatened to target strategic facilities in Chad, including the airports of N’Djamena and Am Jarass, which are reportedly being used by the RSF for logistical and operational purposes. He stressed that his words should not be taken lightly and that the SAF would destroy the RSF and the Arab tribes affiliated with it.
The Chadian Foreign Ministry responded immediately, denouncing Al-Atta’s threat as a declaration of war against Chad. The Chadian statement warned that such threats to Chad’s national security could precipitate a dangerous escalation in the region. It accused Sudan of using terrorist means to destabilise Chad and stressed that it would respond firmly to any attempt to attack its territory.
Another dangerous escalation is unfolding in the direction of South Sudan. Mubarak Ardol, a Sudanese politician aligned with the SAF (the Democratic Bloc faction) warned that a regional force calling itself the Ugandan Army was approaching Sudan’s border with South Sudan on the pretext of fighting the White Army rebels in the Upper Nile, and that this constitutes a direct threat to Sudan’s national security. “This is part of a conspiracy that we must prepare for,” Ardol said. “The Ugandan Army has previously signalled its intent towards our country. We must not delude ourselves into thinking this a mere internal matter, given the involvement of regional parties.”
A spokesperson for South Sudan’s government, Michael Makuei, responded that the Ugandan forces were in his country under a cooperation agreement between Juba and Kampala to fight the White Army, which is a Nuer militia in South Sudan.
Tensions between Khartoum and Nairobi are also rising. Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yusef recently announced that his government would ban Kenyan flights from Sudanese airspace in response to Nairobi’s support for the RSF and its hosting of the alliance that declared its intent to form a parallel Sudanese government. Previously, Sudan halted the import of all Kenyan products, including tea.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in the country is becoming increasingly severe and relief agencies are warning it could become even more dire if the war continues due to the spread of poverty, hunger, famine and deadly diseases. Sudan now faces the largest displacement crisis in the world, while war-related fatalities now exceed 150,000, according to the International Rescue Committee. UN reports note the rapid spread of contagious diseases like malaria, cholera, dengue fever, and German measles. Sounding the alarm that food and nutritional aid resources in Sudan are nearing depletion, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Sudan Clementine Nkweta-Salami said: “Millions in Sudan face hunger. Urgent funding is needed to support them.” She added that Sudan ranks “among the top four countries globally with the highest prevalence of acute malnutrition.”
Addressing a UN Security Council meeting on Sudan earlier this month, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said that “nearly two thirds of Sudan’s total population -- more than 30 million people -- will require humanitarian assistance this year. Sixteen million of them are children -- and they are paying a terrible price.” She described the situation in Sudan after two years of conflict as “the largest and most devastating humanitarian crisis in the world.”
Despite many such dire warnings, the belligerents remain deaf to appeals, whether from within Sudan or abroad, to cease fighting, agree to a humanitarian truce, and open avenues to the safe delivery of humanitarian relief.
There are three possible scenarios for Sudan at present: the SAF persists until the ultimate defeat of the RSF, an alternative fraught with hazards and uncertainties; the RSF withdraws to Darfur, fortifies itself and raises the spectre of secession, which could also be disastrous; or negotiation and dialogue pave the way to national reconciliation and a new formula for governing Sudan. Surely the third is the safest and least costly option, but what would it take to convince the warring parties to heed reason instead of driving Sudan and its people further into the abyss?
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: