On 21 March, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the USS Harry S Truman carrier strike group to extend its deployment by at least a month, according to two US officials, while also ordering the USS Carl Vinson and its accompanying destroyers to support the operations.
On the same day, 12 US Air Force F-35 fighters arrived in the UK for deployment to the Middle East in order to reinforce US assets already deployed to the US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.
On the previous day, the US Axios news website reported that in a letter delivered directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 7 March, the next day after sending strategic B-52 planes to train with the Israeli Air Force in a deterrence mission, Trump suggested direct negotiations for a fresh nuclear agreement between the US and Iran.
However, he also made a chilling warning of the consequences if Iran were to reject the two-month offer for the negotiations and continued to advance its nuclear programme, reports say. This can be linked with his statements to the US network Fox News that the US was “down to the final moments” with Iran.
Last Sunday, US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said that “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb. This cannot happen, and it will not happen.”
According to reports, on 17 March, the US aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson participated with the Republic of Korea Air Force and the US Air Force in conducting F-35 air integration training during Exercise Freedom Shield in the East China Sea.
The Carrier Strike Group 1 used in the training consisted of the USS Carl Vinson accompanied by the USS Princeton cruiser and the USS Sterett and USS William P Lawrence destroyers. The carriers hosted three F/A-18 fighter squadrons, an F-35C squadron, and an E-2D command and control squadron.
It has been predicted that they will be deployed to the Arabian Sea to support USS Georgia, an Ohio-class cruise missile submarine, along with the USS Harry Truman near Jeddah and the submarine the USS Indiana in the Mediterranean Sea.
With the arrival of an additional F-35 squadron in the Middle East, the number of US combat squadrons becomes five operating from air bases, along with eight naval squadrons from two aircraft carriers, making a total of 13 combat squadrons.
Their strength primarily relies on fifth-generation aircraft, paving the way for cooperation with early warning aircraft to facilitate operations for other fighter jets.
They will dominate the airspace over the southern Red Sea and the eastern Arabian Gulf. They can support any offensive operations against Iran, especially if strategic bombers are sent from the UK. At the same time, they will provide immense firepower against the Houthis in Yemen, surpassing anything previously seen from the US, Israel, or Arab forces.
US strikes against Houthi targets earlier this month saw “an initial wave of strikes hit over 30 targets at multiple locations, degrading a variety of Houthi capabilities. These included terrorist training sites, unmanned aerial vehicle infrastructure, weapons manufacturing capabilities and weapons storage facilities,” according to US Air Force Lieutenant-General Alex Grynkewich talking to the Warzone website.
“It also included a number of command and control centres, including a terrorist compound where we know several senior unmanned aerial vehicle experts were located. In addition, the strike operations continued against additional headquarters locations, weapon storage facilities, as well as detection capabilities that have been used to threaten maritime shipping.”
The strikes highlight the US readiness to deal with the Houthis by intensively gathering intelligence about the nature of targets, threats, and how to neutralise them before launching waves of attacks. They also signal the US intention to eliminate the last and strongest force associated with Iran in the Middle East, depriving it of its final bargaining card.
This is already happening, albeit indirectly, as official Iranian statements have confirmed that they have no connection to the actions of the Houthis.
Completely eliminating the Houthis seems unrealistic through airstrikes alone, however. This will require ground operations, which will in turn depend on actors within Yemen and the internationally recognised Yemeni government.
Even if Iran reduces or halts additional support to the Houthis, which is unlikely, the group’s current stockpile of weapons is sufficient to ensure a limited launch of missiles and drones targeting US ships. This includes the single-launch pattern of ballistic missiles being used against Israel on a near-daily basis for an extended period of time, as the Houthi stockpile is not likely to be depleted anytime soon.
The Israeli Ynet news website, citing an Israeli official, reported that “the US has asked Israel not to respond to an overnight missile attack by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The US told Israel to ‘let them deal with it,’” it said.
This is understandable, given that the Israeli Air Force is focused on carrying out intensive attacks on three fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. However, any military action against Iran will primarily rely on Israeli offensive air formations supporting US strategic bombers, while the rest of the US fighter jets work to secure the attacks.
Iran today is in a dire position without any cards able to guarantee its geopolitical gains. It has only two months to accept the US offer of negotiations on its nuclear programme, and it is difficult to rely on the Houthis to put pressure on the US, as the situation now is entirely different from before October 2023 and especially in the wake of Iran’s losing its most prominent military allies in Hizbullah and the Syrian Army.
The way is now clear for Israeli formations to attack Iran, which has been left without effective air defences after focused Israeli strikes last October. This comes amid difficulties in replacing these defences due to Russia, Iran’s ally, being engaged in an exhausting and destructive war in Ukraine.
This is the same problem that the Syrian Army suffered before its destruction, as Israel exploited the Ukraine war to deplete Syria’s air defences, wearing them out and creating gaps in Syrian airspace.
The Houthis rely on caves and underground facilities for their defence, and these have been a safe haven for them over the past decade. They have adapted to fight their adversaries with innovative new combat tactics, and they have developed equipment and weapons with Iranian assistance.
However, if they persist in their efforts despite the US pressure on Iran, time may eventually run out for them. This could threaten their control over Yemen’s cities, leading to an outcome similar to that of Hizbullah, which is likely the US goal through its new air campaign against Yemen.
This will negatively impact the situation in the Middle East, making matters worse after they were nearing a resolution, especially if Iran rejects the US proposal. It would signal the approach of a US-Israeli strike on Iran, which the Israeli government has been striving for since the beginning of the year.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: