In its ongoing attempt to salvage the Gaza ceasefire that Israel breached 10 days ago, on 27 March Cairo plans to host another set of meetings with delegations from Hamas and Israel. Meetings already took place in Cairo last week to discuss ways to resume the ceasefire.
A major problem in reaching any deal, say the sources, is that it primarily falls short of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can “sell to his extremist government”, especially after Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister who walked out of Netanyahu’s coalition government in protest at the ceasefire, rejoined the cabinet following the resumption of the war on Gaza.
The same sources say Hamas is willing to consider any deal if it comes with solid guarantees that Israel will commit to not resuming hostilities in the case the hostages are released.
A source close to the talks that Hamas held in Cairo in recent days said it wants “firm and coherent” guarantees on what Israel will do in the short and long term, especially after the mediators — Qatar, Egypt and the US — failed to get Israel to honour the three-phase ceasefire after the end of the first phase.
According to Egyptian sources, the American administration is not responding to appeals put forward by Qatar and Egypt to get Israel to honour the terms of the ceasefire sealed in January following direct intervention from then president-elect Donald Trump.
The same sources also acknowledge that Egypt is putting pressure on Hamas to show realism to contain the bloodshed in Gaza. The heart of any proposal, they add, is to strip Israel of any excuse for the resumption of hostilities under the pretext of releasing hostages.
Cairo is well aware that Netanyahu resumed the war to avoid signing up to the permanent end of hostilities required by the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, which would have allowed for the release the remaining hostages.
The source said that it is clear Israel has a greenlight from the Trump administration to up the ante and expel as many Gazans as possible, especially from the north to the middle of the Strip.
“The resumption of the war is about making life impossible for as many Gazans as possible,” said one of the sources. That said, Egypt is still of the opinion that Hamas has to show flexibility to spare the lives of the innocent Palestinians that Israel is killing on a daily basis.
According to the same source, the US and Israel still expect Egypt and Jordan to take large numbers of Palestinians, not just from Gaza but also from the West Bank.
On Sunday, the State Information Service (SIS) issued a statement to deny press reports circulating over the weekend, following a visit of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed to Egypt, suggesting that Cairo would be open to taking half a million Palestinians from Gaza in return for a generous economic package. Less than 24 hours later, the SIS issued another statement condemning the decision of the Israeli government to establish an agency to oversee the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and new Israeli settlement plans for the West Bank.
The excessive Israeli aggression, say the sources, is a miscalculation: despite the support Netanyahu has from the Trump administration and “from others” there are no guarantees about what could happen “if things get out of hand.”
Egyptian officials foresee the possibility “of multiple disturbing scenarios” that could unfold if Israel continues to flex its muscles. They could include a new Intifada in the West Bank, which would be very bloody given current Israeli military attacks on Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank, and the ongoing annexation of land to expand existing settlements or build new ones.
Among possible scenarios raising concerns in Cairo are escalating military strikes on Gaza that may force a mass movement of Palestinians towards the Egyptian border. Since the beginning of the war in autumn 2023, Cairo has told the Americans, Israelis and Hamas that Egypt will not be pushed into accepting the forced entry of Palestinians.
In its statement issued on Monday, the SIS noted that Cairo is opposed to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to any destination, but especially to Egypt. Netanyahu, Cairo believes, wants to claim a major political victory by forcing the problem on Egypt, which will resonate among the extremists in his government and sections of Israeli society.
According to the same sources, Cairo believes Israel’s management of the Gaza situation is part of a wider Israeli policy that includes military expansion into Syrian territories and ongoing attacks on Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement there.
Worse still, Cairo is worried that in its attempt to expand into Syria, Israel may get into a confrontation with the Turkish military stationed there in the mistaken belief that the Turkish regime will be too distracted by the internal political crisis that followed the decision to arrest Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, to respond.
Add to this the turmoil that could hit Jordan if Amman is forced by US pressure to accept large numbers of Palestinians from the West Bank. The sources say the perfect conditions are being created for the entire region to catch fire.
They add that so far, all attempts to get the Trump administration to engage with the Egyptian plan, endorsed by the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Conference, for the reconstruction of Gaza without displacing its inhabitants, have failed.
On Monday, the White House issued a statement saying that the elements of the proposed initiative do not meet with Trump’s vision. Last month, while receiving Netanyahu in the White House, Trump spoke of displacing Gazans and turning Gaza into a tourism destination.
White House statements suggest Trump greenlighted the resumption of the Israeli war on Gaza to boost his expulsion plans. Washington also paved the way for Israel’s regional plans by carrying out over 100 strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
Egyptian sources say the tensions between Cairo and both Washington and Tel Aviv may not have peaked yet and that their divergent views on regional stability could further erode bilateral relations with both the US and Israel in a way that has not been seen since the signing of the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty in 1979.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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