The most prominent development so far in the run-up to Iraq’s general elections slated for November this year is the announcement by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr that his movement will boycott the elections.
Speaking though a sermon delivered on his behalf in the Kufa Mosque in late March, Al-Sadr declared that his bloc would neither present candidates nor support any electoral list in the elections, citing “rampant corruption and the dominance of failed parties.”
However, in a strategically significant move, he still urged his followers to register to vote.
“We will not be part of this farce, but our people must remain present. The corrupt fear your registration more than your silence,” Al-Sadr said.
This seemingly contradictory position – boycotting the elections while also encouraging registration – has been interpreted by analysts as a calculated move rather than a full withdrawal from politics.
While the absence of the Sadrist Movement may create a vacuum that benefits rival Shiite parties and movements within the Coordination Framework that brings together a group of parties, mobilising his supporter base by encouraging them to register could allow Al-Sadr to return at a critical moment.
Iraqi political analyst Abdul-Ameer Al-Majar told Al-Ahram Weekly that the 2025 elections are fundamentally different from previous ones.
“If the elections are held, they will mark a turning point. The public’s awareness has changed dramatically, especially among the youth. The Iranian influence has also declined significantly,” he said.
Al-Majar said that many Iraqis are awaiting the outcome of the ongoing US-Iranian negotiations, particularly on issues tied to dismantling the Iran-linked armed factions that act as unofficial arms of political parties aligned with Tehran.
“If these non-state militias are disbanded, then a broad public sentiment may emerge that elections can finally be fairer and that change is within reach in Iraq,” he said.
Meanwhile, the absence of the Sadrists from the elections raises concerns that they could produce a parliament devoid of a meaningful opposition and one controlled by political forces often blamed for Iraq’s persistent crises.
“If there are no Sadrists in parliament,” said political commentator Omar Al-Hadithi, “there will be no counterweight or real popular or political opposition. It would be a one-party parliament under many names.”
Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani appears to be quietly preparing for a second term in office. Though he has not formally announced his candidacy in the elections, his recent moves suggest he is seeking to consolidate backing from the Coordination Framework parties.
A government source speaking on condition of anonymity was quoted as saying that “Al-Sudani wants to appear independent, but behind the scenes he is ensuring the full support of his allies.”
Divisions are not limited to the Shiite camp, though the Coordination Framework is torn between former Iraqi prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition and the Fatah Alliance, which is aligned with armed factions.
Among the Sunni parties and blocs, the disintegration of the Taqaddum Coalition following Mohamed Al-Halbousi’s ouster as parliamentary speaker has left a vacuum. New figures such as Khamis Al-Khanjar and Rafi Al-Issawi have emerged, but no unified front has formed.
In the Kurdish region of Iraq, tensions are ongoing between the two leading Kurdish parties — the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) — — over revenue sharing, oil management, and the legitimacy of President Latif Rashid.
“There is no united Kurdish list, no clear Sunni alliance, and the Shiite scene is riddled with infighting,” said Erbil-based journalist Rinas Jamil. “All the signs point to political chaos,” he was quoted as saying.
There have been attempts to amend the current electoral law, which have appeared to some as efforts to postpone the general elections scheduled for the end of this year.
Iraqi media outlets quoted sources from within the Coordination Framework as saying that most of the framework’s parties have agreed not to amend the parliamentary elections law due to time constraints.
“There is also no consensus among the major political forces, Kurdish and Sunni, on amending the law,” the sources were quoted as saying.
In the same context, the Chairman of the Board of Commissioners at the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) Judge Omar Ahmed Mohamed, confirmed that the law currently in effect is the Amended Parliamentary and Provincial Councils Elections Law No. 12 of 2018 and that the electoral system adopted under it is proportional representation.
Within Iraqi civil society, there is renewed debate over electoral participation. Many activists who boycotted the 2021 vote, now question that decision, acknowledging that it may have helped entrenched powers to remain in control.
Ali Hussein, an organiser of protests in Nasiriyah, was quoted as saying that the boycott of the 2021 elections had been a gift for the powers that be. “But, on the other hand, does participation mean legitimising the system,” he asked.
New movements such as the Pulse of Change and Movement 25 are attempting to build civil political alternatives, but they face challenges ranging from limited funding to state harassment.
A young activist from Baghdad noted that “every time we gather signatures or host a forum, someone comes to intimidate us. But we’re not backing down.”
Al-Majar believes that Iraqis may return to the polls in large numbers if the geopolitical context shifts. “If the US-Iran talks result in what Iraqis have long hoped for, millions will head to the ballot box,” he said.
“Many people are already preparing to abandon the negativity of boycotting” the elections.
“I’m convinced that the civil vote could win, because they represent the largest segment of the electorate. Out of some 30 million eligible voters, only around three million voted for the Islamists in the recent elections. Their real street power is limited. It’s only the boycotts that have allowed them to dominate. I don’t believe that will happen again,” he said.
With seven months to go until the vote, the public mood remains a mix of cynicism and guarded hope. Many Iraqis are sceptical about the possibility of real change, but some detect a shift.
Mohamed Ali, a retired teacher, remarked that “every four years we vote, and the same faces return. Maybe this time around we could make a change,” adding that “it is not an impossible wish, is it?”
Others also cling to the idea of transformation.
“No change is ever quick,” said Niran Hussein, a university student, insisting that the pressure for change begins with participation. “If we register, vote, and expose fraud, the system could crack, if not now, then someday,” she said.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 24 April, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: