This week, Cairo hosted visiting delegations from Hamas, Israel, and Qatar and coordinated with Doha and Ankara on talks and meetings with a single objective — to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. Another week of back-and-forth talks with hardly any outcome to share with the world.
“All plans and options have been and are being considered, but we are still waiting for a breakthrough,” said an Egyptian source informed on the talks.
The source, who has been associated with the ceasefire talks since Israel started its war on Gaza in the autumn of 2023, argued that it is more likely that a brief rather than long ceasefire willmaterialise in the coming week or two, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s arrivalin the regionon a Gulf tour that willinclude visits to Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
“Trump is expected in the region around mid-May and so it would be before that and it could last for the duration of Trump’s presence in the region and maybe for a few more days,” he said. “Like the first ceasefire, it will be brief.”
In November 2023, six weeks intoIsrael’s devastating Israeli war on Gaza, a one-week ceasefire was reached. It started with an agreement for a three-day pause in hostilities thatwas then extended. The second ceasefire, which was supposed to be longer, came into effect on 19 January. On 18 March, Israel broke the ceasefire and started another round of aggressive strikes against Gaza, leading to further deaths, injuries, and destruction.
The second ceasefire was supposed to cover three phases,leading to the release of all Israeli hostages taken on 7 October 2023, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the start of a process of reconstruction.
Egyptian, Palestinian, and European sources say that what is being discussed is not a reboot of the second ceasefire. During the past couple of weeks posited scenarios have swung from a relatively brief humanitarian ceasefire to one lasting a few years. The first would allow for the release of a limited number of hostages and the entry of a limited amount of desperately needed humanitarian aid. The second would lead to the handover of all hostages and bodies, full Israeli withdrawal, unlimited entry of humanitarian aid and a new political and security system in Gaza under which Hamas would take a back seat, at least temporarily.
According to the informed Egyptian source, Israel has “torpedoed” the second scenario.
“Trump is not interested and there is not enough pressure on him to work with this scenario,” he said. He added that both the November 2023 and January 2024 ceasefires depended on US pressure to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree. Today, hopes are limited to Trump pressing Netanyahu to agree to a two-to-three-week ceasefire.
“I cannot say anything is final, but we are working hard,” he said. He explained that the hoped-for ceasefire should allow for three things: the handover of half of the hostages and half of the bodies; entry of emergency humanitarian aid on a daily basis into a zone not far from the borders with Egypt designated by Israel, and the release of around 1,000 Palestinians.
The entire region has been dealing with the consequences of the Israeli war on Gaza,said the source. The consequences include the Israeli war on Hizbullah to avenge its support of Hamas, which ended up eliminating most of Hizbullah’s capacities and leadership, attacks against Iranian targets “in many places, including Iran and Syria”, Houthi attacks on vessels passing to or from Israel through Bab Al-Mandeb, and US-led strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
Egypt has faced its share of consequences, includingWhite House demands that Cairo agree to Trump’s proposal to displace Gazans into Sinai. This, said the source, has been particularly problematic becausethe proposal will make Egypt complicit in the liquidation of the Palestinian cause,“something that Egypt cannot subscribe to”, as President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi has repeatedly said.
In a speech to mark Sinai Liberation Day on 25 April, President Al-Sisi reiterated Cairo’s position. Egypt, he said, “as always, is still standing today, firm and solid before all attempts to liquidate the Palestinian cause”. He added that Cairo is committed to the reconstruction of Gaza in line with the Egyptian plan adopted by both the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation,“without any form of displacement, in order to protect legitimate Palestinian rights and the national security” of Egypt.
This week, the National Centre for Studies, a Cairo-based independent think tank, held a conference to discuss continued US pressure to displace Gaza’s population. The conference was attended by former army officers and political experts, and high-profile figures such asformer foreign minister and former secretary-general of the Arab League Amr Moussa, and former foreign minister Nabil Fahmi. The conference addressed Israeli plans to reoccupy Gaza to allow for further illegal settlements on Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 and control of Gaza’s natural resources, in violation of international law and against Arab strategic interests.
According to Amr Shobaky, an expert at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, what happens the day after the Israeli war on Gaza has implications not just for the Strip’s population but for the future of anti-occupation resistance, the future of the Palestinian cause and the responsibilities of Arab countries vis-à-vis Palestine.
According to Amr Moussa, moving forward is not something that can be discussed so long as the current extremist Israeli government is in office. Without change inside Israel, he said, it is pointless to talk about anything sustainable.
Meanwhile, Egyptian and Palestinian sources confirmed Cairo’s intention to continue working with Israel, Hamas and Qatarto push for a ceasefire. More meetings are expected to convene in Cairo and Doha during the coming days.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 1 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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