Talks negotiating a deal to stop Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief have faltered, but it is not clear if they are postponed, suspended or completely scrapped. A “technical meeting” was supposed to be held in the Omani capital Muscat on Wednesday 30 April, to be followed by a fourth round of talks on Saturday 3 May. The last three rounds on every Saturday of the previous weeks were described as “positive and constructive” by both Tehran and Washington. Delegations were led by US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, mediated by Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi.
Omani hosts said on Thursday that the next round of nuclear discussions provisionally planned for 3 May would be rescheduled for “logistical reasons”. That was echoed by Tehran as Araghchi posted on X, “Together with Omani and US interlocutors, we have decided to postpone the 4th round of talks for logistical and technical reasons.” The Iranian FM went on to assert that “there is no change in our determination to secure a negotiated solution... Iran’s nuclear programme will forever remain peaceful while ensuring that Iranian rights are fully respected.”
Americans disputed all this, saying the United States had never confirmed its participation in the fourth round of talks. A US Department of State spokesperson said the timing and venue of the next round of talks “have yet to be confirmed but are expected in the near future”.
Meanwhile clouds are thickening with escalations from both sides. On Thursday, American President Donald Trump issued a warning on his social media platform that “any country or person purchasing oil or petrochemicals from Iran would be subject to US sanctions with immediate effect.” Trump said violators “will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form”. Those new sanctions ramp up “maximum pressure” on Tehran, particularly targeting buyers such as China, which is widely considered Iran’s largest oil customer.
Iran responded by casting doubt on the usefulness of the talks as, on the one hand, the US continues to impose sanctions and American officials continue demanding full elimination of the nuclear programme. Tehran accused the US of “contradictory behaviour” with the imposition of new sanctions.
In an interview with Fox News, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iranians “have to walk away from helping the Houthis (in Yemen), they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from enrichment”.
The negotiations are about limiting enrichment of uranium at 3.67 per cent, rather the current level of almost 60 per cent. Israel hawks in the Trump administration, like Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, see that is not enough and only replicates the previous deal of 2015. The Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw Iran curtail its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. As Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, Iran accelerated enrichment. The current level is close to the 90 per cent purity for uranium used in producing a nuclear bomb.
Since the start of the talks, Israel was furious that Trump might do a deal that leaves Iran with any nuclear capabilities. A month ago, Israeli media reports suggested US-Iran talks were expected to collapse. Media outlet Israel Hayom said that “a non-governmental Israeli source spoke with a senior American official who said: ‘Israel need not be concerned about the progress of talks with Iran’.” According to the official, “once the Americans present their full list of demands, the negotiations are expected to collapse.”
While Iran wants to keep enriching uranium, to a low level and under monitoring, what Rubio called for is no enrichment at all. “If you have the ability to enrich at 3.67 per cent, it only takes a few weeks to get to 20 per cent, then 60 per cent, and then the 80 per cent and 90 per cent that you need for a weapon,” Rubio told Fox News. Iranian FM Araghchi took to X to dispute Rubio’s statements stressing that “Iran has every right to possess the full nuclear fuel cycle” under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He added, “there are several NPT members which enrich uranium while wholly rejecting nuclear weapons… Maximalist positioning and incendiary rhetoric achieve nothing except eroding the chances of success.”
On Friday, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth issued a strong warning that raised the prospects of a possible attack on Iran. He posted on X warning Tehran of supporting the Yemeni Houthi militia facing American bombardment for weeks now. “We know exactly what you are doing. You know very well what the US Military is capable of — and you were warned,” he added.
Hegseth is expected to visit Israel this week, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region. Netanyahu might want to widen the conflict in the region to stay in power, as some Israeli politicians and analysts suggest. “He is pushing for skirmishes with Turkey in Syria, expanding the war on Palestinians from Gaza to West Bank, angering Jordan, and already at odds with Egypt, ruining its attempts to push a Gaza ceasefire deal. He managed to get the US to launch a war on Yemen. A wider Middle East war involving attacking Iran and probably dragging the US into the conflict would be perfect for him to stay even beyond his term that ends next year in October,” a British veteran ex-diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Whether US allies in the Gulf agree or not, the US might find itself in a position to heed the Israeli demands of an Iran strike. Trump is visiting the region this month, meeting leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Some sources note that the Gulf Arab countries are not adopting the same stance on attacking Iran. The Saudis and Qataris are “reluctant about the idea of igniting the Gulf region by supporting a strike, while Emiratis wouldn’t mind an Israeli targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities,” as one Gulf analyst put it.
After a Yemeni missile hit the main Israeli airport on Sunday, Netanyahu threatened to attack Yemen directly, vowing it is not going to be one strike. The Israelis have been arguing that if Houthi leaders are assassinated like the Lebanese Hizbullah leaders this will end Iranian proxies in the region. That led to some suggesting all the American talk about a deal and the nuclear negotiations might just be a cover to weaken Iran further before a possible attack on it, whether by Israel alone or with direct American support.
The next few days are very tense, and if a new round of talks is not announced soon this will mean that what Israel wanted is going to happen: collapsed negotiations and preparations to strike Iran.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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